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It’s not like we’re loaded with big guns anyway. If we trade away what little we have in the way of run producers for three slightly better pitchers, where does that leave us?
Besides nine guys, who are our lineup everyday starter types, we don’t have anything in the system with sufficient value to accomplish what needs to happen. We don’t have anything to replace regulars that we trade. That is the reality of being a last place team with a low ranking system.
Realistically, to be a contender, we have to join the buy a team crowd. That is concerning. Is BDW going to out bid Cohen? Or Marino? The Dodgers? The Yankees? The Phillies? The Rangers? How much of whatever he does buy will end up on the IL or underperforming? What is plan B for when that happens going to look like? Will we be signing them this winter and trying to off them at the deadline because it didn’t work? It’s not like that never happens. Its uncharted territory for Cardinals fans, and for BillyMo. Maybe Bill can trade the handful of magic beans somebody sold him.
, to be a contender, we have to join the buy a team crowd. That is concerning. Is BDW going to out bid
DING DING DING DING
That’s the bottom line Bling. I try not to spew on and on about my own opinions. I try to deal in what realistically is going to happen. What they should do, IMHO, is bite the bullet. Be honest with the fans. It’s a different game now. We can’t spend with the East coast West coast. It’s going to take more than 1 year to start churning out major league quality pitching from our system. Once we do that, THAN we spend on two or three veterans like Goldy, Arenado, Contreras. But we put the cart before the horse, or maybe the fact is Mo traded the wrong pitchers and here we are. It doesn’t help to harp on that fact. But that’s not what they are going to do. Even if they successfully buy their way back to being a playoff contender, you have the same problem in another 4,5 years.
Gorman, Noot and Donovan make our lineup go. I’d hope to avoid trading away one of those three LH bats.
Walker, Winn and Herrera all have headliner value for a young arm. There’s a logjamb of value at Catcher.
There’s a logjamb of value at Catcher.
I would dispute that.
Gorman, Noot and Donovan make our lineup go
That’s what the untouchable and highly paid bronze busts are supposed to be doing.
They are either going to have to trade good prospects or quality major leaguers to get decent pitching. Either will hurt.
This is why I have zero faith Mo will fix the team enough in one offseason. The team was not a good offense this year and they’re gonna trade the little talent they do have without replacing that production? Also, the warning signs were there for years and he and the rest of the FO ignored them. Now he’s even backtracking on the number of starting pitchers the team needs.
the warning signs were there for years and he and the rest of the FO ignored them.
To be fair, the pundits had the Cardinals system highly rated right up until the ML team tank was well under way this season. It seems unlikely it got drastically worse from one year to the next, so it wasn’t just the Cardinals FO that missed warning signs.
1) BDW can spend money to buy pitching or
2) Mo can destroy the offense by acquiring pitching for talent, or
3) we can remain noncompetitive.
You have been suggesting for several weeks now that the only way we can get good pitching is to destroy the offense, therefore, there is no chance of having a good team in 2024, we are all doomed, and we should hide under our beds.
I know that our front office is incompetent but perhaps they will attempt a more nuanced strategy. Perhaps they will sign one big name FA who is expensive (Nola), trade for a cheap mid-rotation guy who wouldn’t require someone like Gorman in return (Schmidt), then either go after another veteran who has maybe one year left (Bieber) or go after the young pitcher who would require Gorman or Noot or Donovan. If it is the latter then there would be funds available to go back out on the FA market and get more offense (Bellinger).
That would require a lot of work but my point is that there are ways to improve the pitching without destroying the offense.
gscottar IMO a well executed nuanced rebuild is a lot to ask from the same bunch that created the mess.
My guess is the gun shy angle will come into play. Mo won’t trade the touts whose career trajectory is unknown. So Gorman, Walker and Winn are safe. The bronze busts are safe because Brian insists. Contretas isn’t worth anything if his contract goes with him.
That leaves Nootbaar, Edman and Donovan. Our offense is good when those three are good and it’s not when they’re not. So I’ll be real interested to see Mo nuance that.
But again you are assuming there is some kind of prohibition to us ADDING offense. If the pitching we acquire doesn’t completely bust the budget (which it doesn’t have to if done properly) we can add both pitching AND offense.
I understand this will be a difficult task, especially for a front office with such a dismal track record the last several years, but it is is possible. It is also possible that the rebuild may take two years instead of one. Going from 71 wins to 91 wins in one season is not impossible but also not probable.
Going from 71 wins to 91 wins in one season is not impossible but also not probable.
I must admit I’d have said the same about going from 93 to 71.
True, although as the VEB article above points out, 71 wins is a bit misleading since we totally punted on the final two months of the season and used a lot of AAAA players just to get the season over with. The true gap is probably less than 20 wins but will still be a difficult task.
Making your first big trade with the perspective of who your SP1 & SP2 signings already are, is the position I hope BillyMo finds themselves in.
gscottar said:
True, although as the VEB article above points out, 71 wins is a bit misleading since we totally punted on the final two months of the season and used a lot of AAAA players just to get the season over with. The true gap is probably less than 20 wins but will still be a difficult task.
Hmmm. The results appear to be virtually the same before the deadline and after. I am not letting them off the hook for the 91 losses.
StL win pct through July .439
Stl win pct Aug-Sept .436
StL win pct season .438The VEB article makes clear that the front office has been chasing phantoms pretty much ever since Luhnow left. Look at that 2015 rotation and you can make a pretty good case for not needing Scherzer. A good chunk of that arm talent came through the system… Waino, Cmart, Lynn, Wacha, Garcia. We still had guys like Gonzales, Weaver, Reyes, Flaherty, etc in the pipeline. 8 years later, what’s even left to be excited about? Hence, two years out. Maybe McGreevy or Graceffo.
Mo started chasing the Cubs in 2016 and the model broke down. The offense first guys aren’t really doing their thing and the pitching is in shambles. I agree with the author that three guys better than Mikolas are needed (and attainable ), yet it’s hard to imagine the team actually pulling the trigger on two free agents and a trade in the next three months.
The elephant in the room is there wasn’t enough difference in the roster from year to year to account for a 20 game difference.
2nd half Puhols was magic and then even an aging Molina handled the staff like a coach on the field.
But no, even taking those two out doesn’t account for the collapse.
Having Puhols in the line up helped Goldschmidt and Arenado. Neither was really close to 2022 and Arenado’s back is affecting his defense.
Wainwright simply broke down and based on his post season shoulder pain admission should never have been allowed to pitch at all this season.
Many player underperformed this year and it has a snowball effect.
This season was the result of 6-7 years of smug, arrogant complacency and plain old hard headedness by DeWitt, Mo, and their merry band of front office clones.
They have reaped what they sowed to get Biblical on them, lol – and now, instead of doing a proper rebuild Mo is going to try to fix the organization with a bigger bandaid.
Simply snagging WC2 or 3 next season and losing either the WC or divisional round for the sake of ‘making the post season’ isn’t good enough if it’s not the beginning of a sustainable upward trend.
There were ups and downs but essentially the team cratered right out of the gate, getting about 14 games under very quickly. Then they played .500 most of the year, and dropped a little further at the end, post selloff and some guys taking the IL exit ramp.
It was really about that horrible, dysfunctional start. Mo is going to have to be sure that doesn’t happen again. Ollie is probably worried that it could.
Oily’s been told he’s done an amazing job and isn’t worried about anything other than the weeds growing in his clubhouse.
“yet it’s hard to imagine the team pulling the trigger on two free agents and a trade in the next three months.”
It should be possible to fix the starting rotation entirely through free agency, if we assume a $55 million budget.
You are replacing:
1) Jordan Montgomery:
2023: 188.2 IP; 3.20 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; .247 Avg; 7.9 K/9; 3.5 K/BB; $10 M
Career: 3.68 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .244 Avg
2) Adam Wainwright:
2023: 101.0 IP; 7.40 ERA; 1.90 WHIP; .345 Avg; 4.9 K/9; 1.3 K/BB; $18 M
Career: 3.53 ERA; 1.24 WHIP; .254 Avg
3) Jack Flaherty:
2023: 144.1 IP; 4.99 ERA; 1.58 WHIP; .287 Avg; 9.2 K/9; 2.2 K/BB; $5.4 M
Career: 3.75 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .225 AvgThen you need three of the following:
1) Jordan Montgomery
The best free agent pitcher available without a QO or posting fee.2) Hyu-Jin Ryu:
2023: 52.0 IP; 3.46 ERA; 1.29 WHIP; .257 Avg; 6.6 K/9; 2.7 K/BB; $20 M
Career: 3.27 ERA; 1.18 WHIP; .250 AvgHe’ll be 37 and is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2022 (didn’t start pitching until July, 2023), so he likely will only get a one-year deal. He should easily surpass Waino’s 101.0 IP from 2023 at a far lower ERA.
3) Mike Clevinger:
2023: 131.1 IP; 3.77 ERA; 1.23; .244 Avg; 7.6 K/9; 2.8 K/BB; $12 M
Career: 3.45 ERA; 1.19 WHIP; .226 AvgClevinger dealt with both domestic abuse allegations and a shoulder/elbow scare this year, so likely available on a one-year deal.
4) Seth Lugo:
2023: 146.1 IP; 3.57 ERA; 1.20 WHIP; .249 Avg; 8.6 K/9; 3.9 K/BB; $7.5 M
Career: 3.50 ERA; 1.17 WHIP; .239 AvgThis was only Lugo’s second year as a full-time starter. The other year was 2017. He has a player option for $7.5 million, but he should beat that in free agency.
5) Eduardo Rodriguez:
2023: 152.2 IP; 3.30 ERA; 1.15 WHIP; .227 Avg; 8.5 K/9; $14 M
Career: 4.03 ERA; 1.26 WHIP; .248 AvgHas an opt-out in his contract. Set to make $18 million next year if he does not opt out. His salary is set to decline to $16 million in 2025 and $15 million in 2026.
6) Wade Miley:
2023: 120.1 IP; 3.14 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .223 Avg; 5.9 K/9; 2.1 K/BB; $3.5 M
Career: 4.06 ERA; 1.36 WHIP; .263 AvgWe’d be signing him away from the Brewers…Has a mutual option for $10 million next year. Probably won’t get much more in AAV, but can tack on additional years.
7) Michael Lorenzen:
2023: 153.0 IP; 4.18 ERA; 1.21 WHIP; .243 Avg; 6.5 K/9; 2.4 K/BB; $8.5 M
Career: 4.11 ERA; 1.32 WHIP; .246 AvgThis is Michael’s third year as a starter, along with 2015 & 2022. Like Lugo, probably in the $15 million per year range.
For reference, in 2023, this year’s crop of free agent starting pitchers averaged:
– 33 years of age
– 110.3 IP; 4.35 ERA; 1.33 WHIP; .252 AVG; 8.1 K/9; 2.9 K/BB; $11.5 MIf you can get Montgomery for $25 million per year, and two others for $15 million per year each, you have added 3 members to the starting rotation for $55 million per year. Only one is on a long-term deal.
Also for reference:
Logan Gilbert:
2023: 190.2 IP; 3.73 ERA; 1.08 WHIP; .233 Avg; 8.9 K/9; 5.3 K/BB
Career: 3.76 ERA; 1.14 WHIP; .239 AvgLogan Gilbert had 3.2 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR. If you trade Gorman + Donovan for him, you are giving up Gorman’s 2.5 fWAR & 2.4 bWAR and Brendan Donovan’s 2.1 fWAR & 1.9 bWAR. Keep in mind, Donovan missed half the year due to injury. So, the deal is a loser on it’s face.
Hmmm. The results appear to be virtually the same before the deadline and after. I am not letting them off the hook for the 91 losses.
StL win pct through July .439
Stl win pct Aug-Sept .436
StL win pct season .438Good catch Brian but if it is true that the Cardinals were no worse after they started playing the AAAA guys then the front office and ownership missed an opportunity to save a lot of money the first four months. Hopefully they didn’t notice that.
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