February 20, 2019 at 1:53 pm #823313 Inches SquishyParticipantFree
Why do fans in St Louis act like they never heard of the concept of “playing through injury”?
Fowler was obviously injured in 2018 and couldn’t run full speed. That’s why he “looked slow”. That’s why his batting average was under .250 for the first time in his career
From 2014 – 2017, Dex had 15.0 oWAR total. For comparison,Christian Yelich had 16.6 oWAR.
Cardinal Nation is delusional when it comes to Dexter Fowler.
2014: 3.9 oWAR
Dex has the same career oWAR as Matt Carpenter (27) and has far more value defensively.
Market value for veteran outfielders in 2019 is no less than $15 million per year.
At age 30, “5 years x $17 million” was perfectly reasonable for a veteran centerfielder coming off 4.0 oWAR.
If anything, Dex and his 81 career triples, 227 doubles, 140 steals are grossly underrated.
You’ve got to be clueless to think 5 years / $85 mill is a bad contract.February 20, 2019 at 2:01 pm #82332
Welcome, Squishy. That is quite a first post!February 20, 2019 at 2:40 pm #82336NJ315Participant
It is a bad contract if he doesn’t regain form. He got the contract based on what he did we will see if he can deliver. You are sure he will be back to 2018 level good for you I can see there is not a clueless bone in you.February 20, 2019 at 2:59 pm #82339PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
Personally, I would never include anything less than “8 inches” as a part of my name handle.
P.S. I have been known to embellish from time to time.February 21, 2019 at 12:05 pm #8239814NyquisTParticipantPaid - Annual
Squish… are you a Cubs fan from 2016? Maybe you are a good friend or relative of Fowler or maybe you’re his agent. No matter your comment shows some cluelessness. Thanks for your two cents of old stats that = zero. Its 2019 by the way.
I know that this is not a good way to welcome a newbie…. maybe you should’ve said something less offensive. This grand opening just goes along with the Cubs theory.February 21, 2019 at 12:22 pm #82400February 25, 2019 at 2:05 pm #82770gscottarParticipantPaid - AnnualFebruary 25, 2019 at 2:16 pm #82772
Repeating my critique of how BP handled the Fowler-Mozeliak matter noted above (so it can more easily be located later).
A lot of words by BP dancing around the key point that THEY are the only ones to suggest a racial issue. There is zero actual reporting to back that up. Further, they did not even title their apology as an apology. They represented Mo’s comments made at the beginning of July as still being “fresh” in the fall, when the section was allegedly written.
They went on and on about writing too many words and then, they did just that. In their 1000-word “statement”, there is no apology until the very last paragraph. And then, they attributed the problem to editing, rather than the writing itself. I agree 100% with dac8b9 calling it “half-hearted”. In fact, that seems generous.
Though I have friends at BP, I lost as much respect of them as a result of their “statement” as I did in the irresponsible words they put in print in the first place.
Sort and sweet, “We screwed up,” should have been the path taken. They could have saved 997 words of nothingness.
A statement on behalf of the Baseball Prospectus organization. https://t.co/RhRUpoEEX8
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) February 23, 2019February 25, 2019 at 4:27 pm #82776Euro DandyParticipantFree
The BP stuff gets more barfworthy the more you read. The phrase “when you’re in a hole, stop digging” comes to mind. BenFred might want to move his stack of editions from his desk to the toilet in case he ever forgets to restock the Charmin.February 26, 2019 at 3:13 am #82789Bob ReedParticipantFree
“From 2014 – 2017, Dex had 15.0 oWAR total. For comparison,Christian Yelich had 16.6 oWAR.
Cardinal Nation is delusional when it comes to Dexter Fowler.
2014: 3.9 oWAR
Dex has the same career oWAR as Matt Carpenter (27) and has far more value defensively.”
Belated welcome, Squishy. Sorry I didn’t notice your post until today.
I don’t know whether oWAR numbers alone make a very persuasive argument that Dexter Fowler is as good or better than Matt Carpenter, all things considered. To see how Fowler and Carpenter compare, let’s take a look at the three publicly available systems of player valuation.
Bearing in mind that Fowler has 10 full years in the majors and Carpenter just under 7, here are the career WAR numbers — hitting, baserunning, defense all included of course — at Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs.
BPro…Fowler 14.0 WAR and Carpenter 23.5 WAR
B-Ref…Fowler 17.9 and Carpenter 25.9
Fangraphs…Fowler 19.6 and Carpenter 28.6
So we see that roughly speaking, Dexter Fowler has averaged between 1 1/2 and 2 WAR per season, and Matt Carpenter has averaged between 3.5 and 4 WAR per MLB campaign. Clearly they have not been remotely comparable.
In fact, according to Fangraphs over the past 7 seasons Matt Carpenter has been approximately as valuable as Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, while Dexter Fowler during the past decade has been about as valuable as Colby Rasmus and Yunel Escobar. (No offense, Colby, but you ain’t Bryce Harper.)
But that’s all in the past. So how do the two 33-year-olds project, going forward? The ZiPS forecast for 2019, prorated to 550 at-bats, has Carpenter worth a terrific 4.6 WAR, and Fowler a fairly dismal 1.6 WAR. In other words, according to ZiPS one player is a star and the other belongs on the bench. No real reason to look further than that, I don’t think.
One thing we can agree upon 100%, Squishy. When it comes to Dexter Fowler, there is certainly some delusional thought going around. As for Fowler’s contract, I suppose the readers can decide for themselves what a 33-year-old good bench player with a narcissism problem is worth on the open market.February 26, 2019 at 9:05 am #8280214NyquisTParticipantPaid - Annual
There is no value for Fowler except the pie in the sky hopes floating around in the empty head that sits upon Mozeliak’s shoulders. That’s why he’ll be sitting on our bench taking up a spot of another player who in most cases will be better than him.
For a guy that is so depressed… that’s a pretty good smiley face that was put up on TCN’s photo day. SAY CHEESE.February 26, 2019 at 10:35 am #82808forsch31ParticipantFree
Robert Reed, you usually do a much better job of comparing apples to apples. While it may be true that a person could use the whole career of a player to compare, it is usually more appropriate to use a heavier weight on the more recent years.
If I want to compare Fowler’s and Carpenter’s WAR up through their age 25 season, Fowler wins. Carpenter didn’t even make it to the majors until his age 25 season and only had 19 ABs that season. Fowler had a little over 3 seasons in the majors by then.
Since WAR is a cumulative stat, it would be best to compare their WAR by looking at their oWAR per 650 PAs. Carpenter’s and Fowler’s oWAR over the same seasons (2012-2018) make the picture a little clearer that Fowler has not been too bad of an offensive threat. Per Baseball Reference, Fowler has a 3.8 oWAR per 650 PAs over that time period. Carpenter has a 4.3 oWAR over that same time period. The difference is definitely more pronounced over the last 4 years at 3.3 oWAR to 4.3 oWAR. IF, big IF, 2018 was an outlier for Fowler, his previous 3 year oWAR was 4.2 over 650 PAs.
When throwing defensive WAR into the fray makes the picture quite different, however. He is definitely awful.
Once again, I say all this NOT because I like Fowler. It is to give an objective view of what Fowler COULD be, offensively.February 26, 2019 at 9:37 pm #828921982 willieParticipantFree
I don’t think hes still injured. he made a terrible play on a ball hit to him the other day. the fact that he never played right field much cant be used now plus if you are an outfielder, you better be able to play in more than one spot in the outfield. now I admit that I have never thought fowler was that goods. yea he may have had these awesome stats people are posting years ago but he never passed the eye test for me and also we are in the now, not years ago. plus he played for the low life cubs, which we should never take a player from other than maybe a minor leaguer or sign a cub in free agency. so theres that.February 27, 2019 at 12:39 am #82895SoonerinNCParticipantPaid - Annual
Fowler had a bad defensive WAR in his last season with the Cubs. And in chummy Wrigley Field. I hope for the best for him but I hope he loses out to Tyler O’Neil who has a ton of upside.February 27, 2019 at 7:46 am #82911
Editorial: "BP to Mo: 1,000 Words Instead of Just Three". Baseball Prospectus takes the long road in an apology of sorts to John Mozeliak after they labeled his July 2018 remarks re: Dexter Fowler as “implicitly racist” in a book that came out this month. https://t.co/l7r915K125 pic.twitter.com/LRN2PumBcp
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 27, 2019February 27, 2019 at 8:52 am #82927Bw52ParticipantPaid - Annual
Fowler is lost cause.Can
t hit,cant field,can`t steal bases.So what the hell can he do? Cost a lot of payroll for minimum results seems to be his defining talent.Kiss his poster or bow to his awesomeness Squishy but the fact remains Fowler offers little to nothing and only a FO trying to recoup some of their investment is saving Fowlers underperforming self.February 27, 2019 at 10:25 pm #82969PugsleyAddamsParticipantPaid - Annual
3 inches Squishy sure made an impact with his one lone post. I haven’t seen any rookie poster ruffle that many feathers since the days of UFan. Anyone remember that rascallion? Come back Squishy!February 27, 2019 at 10:40 pm #82970bccranParticipantPaid - Annual
Last to show up and first to leave.February 28, 2019 at 5:57 am #82973
That was the story two years ago. A lot can and has changed, but really who cares? Fowler is at the point when he must perform on the field to keep his job.February 28, 2019 at 6:34 am #82974CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
Fowler is at the point when he must perform on the field to keep his job.
Are we sure about that?February 28, 2019 at 6:43 am #82975
I cannot speak for the “you” part of “we”, but for me, the only question is how long Fowler’s rope will be – a subtopic discussed at length on this board fairly recently. Some think it will be through spring only, others say a month or two into the regular season, etc.
What is your view, CC?February 28, 2019 at 7:31 am #82983CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
He didnt perform last year and kept his job for the most part. I am not positive this year will be different.
My guess how long? Not sure, but I cant say I am confident that it wont be at least until the all star break.
Worst case scenario will be .730-.780 OPS with terrible defense. That could keep him permanently in the lineup yet still hurt the team.
February 28, 2019 at 7:55 am #82989
- This reply was modified 1 year, 4 months ago by CariocaCardinal.
I see no way that if Fowler plays like he did in 2018 that he will still be in the lineup in early- to mid-July. One key reason is that it would be a continuance of last season. Many more dots to connect.
O’Neill could put pressure on the situation by playing exceptionally. It is very early but so far he has one hit, a homer, and three Ks. Familiar.February 28, 2019 at 8:23 am #82993bccranParticipantPaid - Annual
Lots of options for RF – O’Neill,
Martinez, Robinson, Thomas, Arozarena, A. Garcia. Even Munoz.February 28, 2019 at 8:37 am #82996
I don’t think all of those names are on even ground, though.
Arozarena is not on the 40-man and isn’t yet in a position to jump over all the others.
Robinson and Munoz would be infielders playing in the OF. Ok for a pinch, but not every day.
Thomas and A Garcia won’t get enough at-bats with St. Louis to prove they should start.
That leaves O’Neill and Martinez, IMO.
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