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So wild Man Dipoto said his 3 guys off the board were Diaz, Marco and Haninger.
We do have a history with trading with them. We got that going for us.
If we take Seager back, we might be able to do a 1:1 trade, which is the Cardinals preferred ratio in trades. But that swap would have to wait until DiPoto trades Bruce.
If we were to try to get Bruce, we’d probably have to send a prospect + cash.
“RR, Fowler’s hard contact % was actually up last season and his k% in ’18 was sitting right on his career avg. Doesn’t sound like a guy getting dominated.
You showed OPS from your research to show “results”. I want to mention a .120 pt career BA drop, on balls in play in ’18, that I believe led to those OPS results. I doubt Fowler could repeat his 2018, even if he tried.”
First, thanks for responding, JJ. And please call me Bob. (That’s goes for everybody here, please.)
I’m glad you mentioned the very modern metric of “hard contact %” because I’ve been meaning to cite Dexter Fowler’s terrible underlying contact numbers in 2018, but then forgot and never got around to it. I apologize if I’m about to simply repeat something that’s already been said in this thread.Out of 332 qualified batters, Dexter Fowler ranked all the way down at 287th in average exit velocity, and 285th in frequency of barreling the baseball. So for me there’s no compelling reason to think he was particularly unlucky in 2018. Quite the contrary. Link to stats: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard
Now, I do agree wholeheartedly that Dexter won’t be as awful in 2019 at the plate — in part because John Mabry has been let go and the new hitting coaches are bound to be better. Specifically, I would guess that Fowler will have an OPS in the low-mid .700’s, which would be a massive bounceback, and still leave him a liability as an everyday player due to his dismal defense.
Somewhere between replacement level and a 1-win guy per 600 PA’s, is what I’d guess Dex will be. Again, a huge improvement over 2018, but nevertheless still unplayable when you’re trying to make the postseason. I have nothing against Fowler in absolute terms; if the Cards didn’t have a 23-year-old outfielder who slugged .700 in AAA last year, I’d be fine with giving the 33-year-old Fowler another 150-200 plate appearances to see what’s left in the tank. But the Cards actually DO have such an outfielder, and young guys need consistent playing time to thrive and grow.
I agree Fowler should see some positive regression. Streaer projects a 102 wRC+.
I expect Bozo to be traded which would give O’Neill the 4th OF’r PA’s. That seems appropriate until an OF’r goes DL.
One thing we can be certain of is that if Fowler gets traded, he will put up an OPS north of .900 with the new team, ala Matt Adams, Tommy Pham, and Luke Voit.
Grichuk only went .803 with his new team while Piscotty went for an .822 OPS.
As this kind of data is viewed together, one has to wonder if there was a common thread behind it. I know some are really down on Mabry, but can a hitting coach really have that much of a repressive impact? Or is the improvement reflecting the honeymoon of being in a new place or something else? Probably no clear answer, but it will be interesting to compare the remaining hitters in 2019 vs. 2018 – or should we compare to 1H only?
If you followed Grichuk this past year, he was doing terrible the first few months of the year. The Blue Jays kept playing him, because they had no one else, and he put it together. The Cardinals would have sent him down to Single A ball never to be heard from again.
Adams was always seen as nothing more than a platoon player in STL. He had to face all pitchers in Atlanta and Washington.
Voit never really had a chance in STL because of JMart.
Those decisions aren’t the hitting coach.
From Goold’s chat:
Q: What if Cards sent Fowler and a prospce to SEA for Seager?
A: So, I’ve been asked this a lot for some reason and fail to see how this makes sense for the Mariners or for Fowler. If someone can make that case, I’d be all ears so I can offer an informed response.
Q: More likely: Ozuna returns to 2017 levels, or Fowler returns to 2016 levels?
A: A third likelihood: Fowler to 2017 levels.
Reasons for Fowler to approve a trade to Seattle:
1. No state income tax
2. Jay Bruce is less competition for playing time than Tyler O’Neill
3. Seattle is not St. LouisYeah, sure, Fowler will return to his best year as far as hitting HR’s and second best year as far as OPS rather than closer to his mean.
QUESTION: The fact that the Cards are not trying to trade Fowler is discouraging. Not saying they’d be successful in finding a trade partner, but the fact that they’re not trying seems like it’s destined for him to be starting in right field again next year. … Doesn’t it make sense to see if you can find a trade partner, even if you don’t get a right-field upgrade?
GOOLD: The Cardinals are going to need someone to play right field in 2019. This much we know. Trying to get any return on Fowler now only puts them in a position without any sort of leverage. Teams will know THEY MUST ADD a right fielder at that point. How’s that positioning them better for a deal? Any deal? If the Cardinals go out and add a right fielder there can still be room on the roster for the new right fielder and Fowler. That is not only possible, it actually makes some sense because trading Fowler is difficult and certain to bring little return and a lot of cost at this point.
It makes zero sense to trade Fowler at this point because of his no-trade clause, because of his injury, because of the remainder of his contract, and because it would put the Cardinals in a worse position for negotiations. That’s a rare lose-lose-lose-lose-lose-lose move. Did I count up the “loses” right?
That was from one of Goold’s chats a few weeks ago.
I laugh at his logic, and I truly hope it is not how DeWitt sees it.
One of my major challenges in reading these chat dialogues is trying to determine if the respondent is presenting personal opinion or trying to represent what he is hearing from the team. When that line is so blurry, I am not sure how to interpret what I am reading.
In this particular example, from wherever they came, some of the explanations do appear quite debatable.
P.S. I know many do not like him, and I used to disagree with his writings often, but Bernie Miklasz is one of the few writers to acknowledge that he suspects at times that he is being fed information intended to take him off the track. That suggests another area to question. Are they telling us what they want us to believe? Often, these remarks are taken as gospel – maybe because they are the best information we have.
I don’t think DeWitt can be offering that crazy of logic for keeping Fowler.
I do believe DeWitt has told Mozeliak he has to find a way to trade Fowler and recoup the sunk dollars, which even that, I find dissettling.
Cut your losses and move on.
I think there was a Kenny Rogers song about that.
If they were trying to trade Fowler, they would not expect to not eat any money. I don’t know why you would believe that. They demonstrated this by paying $17 million plus international cap allocation just to get rid of Leake’s contract.
If they were trying to trade Fowler, they would not expect to not eat any money. I don’t know why you would believe that.
I’ve believed since the contract was signed, they’d have to eat money because they overpaid him by 2 years/$50 million.
Whereas last year I thought they’d have to chip in $6-8 million per year, now I believe they have to chip in at least $13 million per year. I don’t think DeWitt is willing to go that far.
After his rough 2018 season, it seems Cardinals OF Dexter Fowler has been written off for 2019. But as @miklasz notes, he still has plenty of cautiously optimistic believers, including Cards prez John Mozeliak: https://t.co/R7faLqzvQi
— The Athletic St. Louis (@TheAthleticSTL) December 5, 2018
At this point the Cardinals are penciling Dexter Fowler as their starting right fielder for opening day.
nooooooooooooooooooooo……….
Maybe he’s just trolling us
How Toronto deals with aging players
“If we were playing tomorrow (Lourdes Gurriel) is playing short,” Atkins said at a luncheon of the Toronto chapter of the Baseball Writers Association of America (via the Toronto Sun). “(Tulowitzki) would have to over achieve to play shortstop at an above-average level with above-average performance for 140 games.
THIS is what the Cardinals need to do with Fowler
I think that is MO speak for “he will probably play because I signed him to a huge contract”.So a better player will be stuck as 4th OF (ONeill) and granite glove JMart will still get some OF time at the expense of O`Neill unless JMart gets traded.Dexter Fowler on this team just makes me want to puke.
I see this VERY differently. I do not think it is a wise approach to give any player a public ultimatum. It is window dressing, throwing a bone to frustrated fans and for the front office to deflect criticism away from themselves for having made a bad acquisition. I cannot think of an example in which private conversation between employer and employee would not be better.
In this specific case, it doesn’t even make sense. If Tulo is on the bench, how could he have a chance to play at any level for 140 games? There is hardly a person in the world the day the Tulo trade was announced that thought it would work out well. But that doesn’t matter, anyway.
It’s not necessarily how it was conveyed, but it is the message for me.
Fowler needs to earn his playing time, not have it granted based on having the second largest salary on the team.
If O’Neill outperforms him, O’Neill should be playing.
I think the latter will occur. If O’Neill takes care of his own business (cuts down on the Ks and stays healthy), his chance will come soon enough. Maybe it will be because Fowler struggles or maybe one of the other OFs is injured.
Some folks think they can accurately predict the future, which is not really possible. Things change all the time.
At this time a year ago, who could have guessed by July that Pham would be traded and Bader was the full-time CF?
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