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If the Reds are interested in acquiring a top tier catcher, they will have to make a serious offer. If not, Kelly will probably go to another team as part of a package for an impact bat.
We basically need to acquire four players this off season.
1. Eric Hosmer
2. JD Martinez
3. Andrelton Simmons or Zach Cosart
4. Juan Nicasio or other good bullpen pieceDeJong can move to 3B.
Trade whoever we need to trade except young pitchers: This includes Gyroko, Carp, Piscotty, Diaz, Grichuk, and Fowler.Go with the youngster in the rotation: CMart, Wacha, Weaver, Flaherty, and Waino. If we need an innings eater on a one year deal go get Lackey or RA Dickey.
1. I’m okay with signing Hosmer, and it might happen. But I like the intensity with which our own Jose Martinez plays the game. I would tolerate the ball bouncing off his glove every now and then for that reason.
2. Tired of bad defense. Not in on JD Martinez.
3. I don’t know where the idea that Andrelton Simmons could be gotten in a trade came from. Here’s a comment published by MLBTR’s at the time the Angels got him:
Angels GM Billy Eppler has many roster holes to fill, and could easily have relied on Aybar, but explained that the trade presented a rare chance to add a top-quality defender at the game’s most important position in the field. “When you have an opportunity, you do it,” he said. “The free agent market does not generally offer a plentiful amount of shortstops. It was a supply-and-demand equation.” Only that kind of premium ability could justify giving up Newcomb’s huge arm, per Eppler, who said that doing so “gives you a lot of pause and makes your stomach hurt a little bit.”
Not too excited about Cozart. But he seems like a good fit.
4. I hope they do sign Nicasio. Alcantara not ready for closer role just yet.
I am all for moving Carpenter,Fowler, Piscotty and Pham.If I had my way I would have a talk with Molina and say you are going to play 110-120 games and Carson Kelly will start the rest because .The reason being a well rested Molina is better for the team and gradually let’s Kelly get playing time because he is the future.If Molina can’t agree to this scenario then ask him which other teams he might like to play for and ship him there.As for Wainwright does he have anything left in the tank?I hope I am wrong but I doubt he will ever be a effective reliable starter again.Would he be able to fill a long spot in the pen or would he retire gracefully? If you are going to go younger then do it.
I am all for moving Carpenter,Fowler, Piscotty and Pham.If I had my way I would have a talk with Molina and say you are going to play 110-120 games and Carson Kelly will start the rest because .The reason being a well rested Molina is better for the team and gradually let’s Kelly get playing time because he is the future.If Molina can’t agree to this scenario then ask him which other teams he might like to play for and ship him there.As for Wainwright does he have anything left in the tank?I hope I am wrong but I doubt he will ever be a effective reliable starter again.Would he be able to fill a long spot in the pen or would he retire gracefully? If you are going to go younger then do it.
I don’t know that I like the idea of getting Cozart unless we can make a big trade for an elite outfielder. Cozart at SS and DeJong/Gyorko at 3B doesn’t give me a lot of confidence really.
I don’t know if Simmons is available or not but most players are available at the right price. The Angels still have a lot of holes to fill to be a championship contender. If we offered them enough a deal might be made.
As for JD Martinez, no he isn’t going to win a gold glove but his offensive firepower would more than make up for his deficiencies.
Sure seems like Yadi playing all the times provides us with pretty good performance and results…. there is no proof a “rested” Yadi provides us an more value and performance than one that plays as he has forever. Yo ucan project him to slide, but until he does whatever he is doing is working and if that is playing 99% of the games, so be it.
Yadi had a good year offensively but he is not the agile catcher he once was and his arm while still good can’t make up for the jumps runners get.Stat nerds or not if you can’t see his defensive regression on low pitches and his declining agility then you aren’t watching.Blindy playing Molina all the time is just stupid.Molina isn’t Dorian Gray and he doesn’t know where the fountain of youth is.
A well rested Molina could be more effective for the team .resting Molina and playing Kelly is a win-win situation .Plus Kelly has caught almost every young pitcher the Cards have so he knows them well.Yadier has been a All-star and was the top catcher in Baseball for several years but he is not that player anymore.He’s still good but you can`t fool father time.I know we need a MOLH. How about a blockbuster trade idea for some discussion.
Trade CMart, Kelly, Gyorko and Grichuk/Piscotty for Freddie Freeman, Markakis, Mike Soroka and Kolby Allard. We may need to throw in a prospect, as well. We would have to use Lyons as a starter and we might be a little thin at starting pitcher until Reyes is ready to start again. We would be in great shape for the next 4 years. We would shift Carp back to 3B with Diaz or Wisdom to back him up.
This would be a case of giving up something valuable today for something needed today and set us up for the future. Soroka is a RH starter ranked #48 by BA, #64 by BP and #78 by MLB at the beginning of the season. He is up to #34 by MLB. Allard is a LH starter ranked #37 by BA, #53 by MLB and #67 by BP at the beginning of the season. He is up to #21 by MLB.
High cost by Atlanta but they solve 2 immediate needs of TOR pitcher and their C for the next 10 years. We also shore up their need for a stopgap 3B until Kevin Maitan and Austin Riley are ready. They are VERY deep in SP prospects.
where is the proof that MOlina is better rested than not? where is the proof a rested Kelly is better than a playing all the time Molina?
show me the stats on his major decline defensively…and show me the stats that show Kelly would be any upgrade over him in those starts..
Yadi is fooling father time…and until i see him show he isnt i am going to leave him as is…
i watch every game and every pitch…all i see is one of the best catchers in baseball now and ever playing ELITE level defense and game calling combined with top 5 level catcher offense if not higher. Kelly has shown ZERO ability to be elite in ANY regards, and Molina’s age has not shown any MAJOR signs of contributing to lower level offense or defense
last year was a sign perhaps…but then you haev this year…and maybe the signs go away
i like having Kelly…but whatever Molina is doing is working…you can beat father time until you cant…and until i see it i dont believe it…
we are all so spoiled it is sickening…go watch other catchers in the league play….
Posey, Contreras, MAYBE Realmuto, Perez if healthy…have sticks that compare… defense wise…POsey, Contreras, Barnhardt, Pina have good gloves maybe in the same caliber…
also…Yadi cant make up for PItchers not keeping runners on…and even so he still DOES do that…does he have Contreras’s arm….no but no one does…so if this is all comparing to Contreras then what is the point…steals against the pitcher arent on anyoen but the pitcher…
i like Kelly a lot…but i havent see anythign but AAA stats to show he can play in bigs…and there are lots of AAA players that look great that dont translate…no matter how much we want them to
in THEORY i say sit Molina more..and when Yadi is hurting i probably want that to happen even more…but if he is healthy then Yadi shows tells me when he needs the time…once a week-ish…unless he declines heavily somewhere dont mess up what is going well
disagree…fine…but telling me I dont watch the game pitches is disrespectful…his agility seems just fine back there…show me where you dont see it…and if it ot running out groundballs to 2nd base…well that isnt really defense…and for every time i see one from him i can show you a hundrerd other players and catchers who do the same thing
i watch the games and the pitches as much as anyoen else…and i see plenty to say not only is MOlina performing well, but he is elite level and whatever rest he has needed this year and whatever plan they have had for him…it is working…call that the fountain of youth if you want…and he did find it…
The question for me is when the fountain of youth will run dry and how the Cardinals deal with what may be a gradual decline between now and then. Likely that will occur during the 2018-2020 term of Molina’s next contract, which will end with his age 38 season. Do the Cards hold Kelly in the interim? Though Matheny has been against it (because Molina likely is), they will not discuss the idea of playing him periodically at first base. That might help extend his career.
Jager I respectfully disagree.I think you see a very good Molina and I see a good Molina who isn’t what he used to be.You say show you stats….I see what I see and I see a former great catcher who is declining and is now still a good catcher but NOT the Great catcher he once was.Look through your rose colored glasses all you want.What your choice.
What are you going to tell me next?Matt Carpenter is as good as he was a few years ago?Wainwright?I still think the Girsch should think about offering Carson Kelly to the Reds for Nick Senzel. Kelly’s signing bonus was $1.6M, and Senzel’s was $6.2M. Add the two together and divide by two and you get $3.9M. So, in order to make the trade more friendly, the Cardinals give the Reds $2.3M along with Kelly for Senzel. That way each of the trade partners has $3.9M invested in the trade. (The math might be a bit confusing at first. But it works, if anybody wants to follow it through.)
Cincinnati needs a catcher. They must realize that. Kelly would improve all of their pitching, and that would make the whole team better. The downside for the Cardinals is that Cincinnati is in our division and Kelly might help them more than we would like, and for years to come. The upside is that our uncertainty at third base would hopefully be resolved for the next several years. I think this is a plausible trade, but, as with any trade, there is plenty of uncertainty.
I’d be interested to hear another opinion or two about this.
I think Senzel is a much better prospect than Kelly if his defense is good enough for 3B. I think it would take much more than Kelly. There is a reason they gave him $6.2 million.
Just looking at the third overall 2010-2014. Didn’t find any misses. All of them are on a big league roster, and contributing.
2010 – Manny Machado Orioles
2011 – Trevor Bauer Drafted by D-backs. Now with Indians
2012 – Mike Zunino Mariners
2013 – Jon Gray Rockies
2014 – Carlos Rodon White SoxOn the other hand, Kelly is considered by many to be the best catching prospect in the game, regardless of what some say about the somewhat injury-prone Francisco Mejia. Its a rare opportunity for any club to have a chance to acquire a prospect like that, assuming that Kelly is even available.
If your team has a hole at a rare position (catcher qualifies) value can be relative.
Having said that… Kelly doesnt play second fiddle to many players regardless. He had an ops 50 points above the league average while several years below the average age. As a catcher. With the best defense in the league.
He’s probably the closest prospect to posey that’s come out in the last decade. He might bomb but you can make a valid comparison given the position change as an outlier/qualifier.
P.s. The indians guy seems like he will move off catcher because of injury concerns from what I last heard.
No doubt Cardinals fans favor Kelly over the 21-year old Mejia as a prospect, but the national raters do not.
MLB Pipeline currently has Mejia #13 nationally with Kelly at #32. BA’s midseason rankings had Mejia at #18 with Kelly at #51.
mud, what are sources you see that conflict with that relative placement? Also, other than a hip injury this season, what in his history makes you label him as “injury-prone”? He had almost 450 plate appearances in each of his age 19 and 20 seasons and still has 400 this year. Looks pretty normal to me.
Regarding Mejia’s position, he is up with Cleveland now. He has only appeared at catcher and DH to date. I would guess if there is a position change down the road, his ranking will be lowered to reflect that.
Granted that Cardinal fans are inclined to rank Kelly high. But that’s because we’ve following him since he got here. Coaches love him. He’s a student of the catching position. He’s got an air of confidence that doesn’t look at all fake. IMHO, if there ever was a ‘can’t miss’ prospect, Kelly is it.
A hip injury is a pretty serious injury for a catcher. I think that would be a deal killer for a big trade where Mejia was being offered as a centerpiece.
The Reds need a catcher. They already have a third baseman. It is a really rare for a prospect like Kelly to even be talked about in a trade. Obviously, any trade carries risk.
Regarding national rankings, DeJong wasn’t even nationally ranked last year. This year he’s in the conversation for Rookie of the Year.
Most front office types are very reluctant to trade high end prospects within the division because you don’t want to see the guy you traded blossom into a star and have your fans reminded of that 18 times a year.
On the other hand the guy you traded for might turn into a star also. I see our front office as too risk averse to try something like that, although as a side note, I’m getting a good vibe about Girsch so far. He seems to be more open and candid than Mo and I find that refreshing.
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