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2022 – 3.3M attendance-$165M End of year payroll
2025 – 2.25M (I don’t believe that #) $131M end of year payrollAverage butt in a seat spends $75, per that AI nonsense. I’m not including the ticket, BPV or parking. I’ll use $50 to be fair, that’s very realistic.
That’s an extra $50M from concessions, hats, jerseys, plus not losing fans.
Adding two above average starting pitchers via FA and trade and a 3-5 hole bat with power for RF could put the butts back in the seats. Arenado and Gray will be significantly less in 2027 so backload them a bit if need be.
Arenado will be $19.4 in 2026 and $15M in 2027.
Gray will be $35M in 2026 and $30M in 2027. (assuming his option is picked up)They really aren’t significantly cheaper in 2027. I doubt if either will be around here much longer.
Gray will be $35M in 2026 and $30M in 2027. (assuming his option is picked up)
I can’t imagine them picking up his option.
List of most likely to get traded this winter in my opnion. Obviously not all of them will get traded but I am just ranking them in order of most likely.
1. Arenado
2. Gray
3. Contreras
4. Donovan
5. Noot (injury complicates it)
6. Gorman
7. Burly
8. Jo Jo
9. Herrera
10. Crooks
11. WalkerIn terms of your list:
1. Arenado – I can’t see anyone trading for him. If you were a GM, would you risk your job to trade for him?
2. Gray – too much money owed. I can’t see anyone trading for him based on his 25 performance and that salary
3. Contreras – if he agrees to it
4. Donovan – I can see him in a package with Crooks for pitching
5. Noot – I can’t see it unless we sign some FA outfielders
6. Gorman – only as the third piece in a trade package
7. Burleson – yes. Need to declutter 1B/DH, and I am not sure Contreras will accept a trade.
8. JoJo – they’ll hold him until the trade deadline
9. Herrera – I don’t see it unless we are getting elite pitching back and the other club insists on him over Burleson (and Contreras refuses to be traded)
10. Crooks – agreed. He will be packaged for pitching or an outfielder to declutter the catching situation
11. Walker – a DFA is far more likelyDo not trade Donovan or Burleson. We need to keep Gray & Crooks. Most of this list I don’t agree with.
1. Arenado – I can’t see anyone trading for him. If you were a GM, would you risk your job to trade for him?
The Cardinals will eat enough to trade him. The acquiring team won’t have much obligation.
2. Gray – too much money owed. I can’t see anyone trading for him based on his 25 performance and that salary
If the Cardinals eat half he will be a good pickup for a contender.
11. Walker – a DFA is far more likely
Zero chance he would be DFA’d. He is either back in STL to try to improve, sent to Memphis to try to improve, or is traded for a lottery ticket.
Do not trade Donovan or Burleson. We need to keep Gray & Crooks. Most of this list I don’t agree with.
We have way way too many LH bats and someone has to be traded to stock up on more pitching.
Do not trade Donovan or Burleson. We need to keep Gray & Crooks. Most of this list I don’t agree with.
Zero chance he would be DFA’d. He is either back in STL to try to improve, sent to Memphis to try to improve, or is traded for a lottery ticket.
The first two options aren’t trades.
Even though Walker has vastly improved on defense, he is still one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. He now hits less than our AAAA centerfielders.
I don’t get the obsession with him from the Cardinals or the fans.
1. Arenado If he’s picky about where he goes, he might not get traded. Cardinals eat half of his contract if he does get traded. Hate to see him go.
2. Gray Similar to Arenado. Cardinals eat half of his contract.
3. Contreras Gone if the other team gives him another guaranteed year.
4. Donovan We need him to play third base if Arenado goes. Saggesse plays second base until Wetherholt gets called up.
5. Gorman I think there will be a team that thinks it can straighten him out. Cardinals could get a high ceiling, low level prospect for him plus a throw in from the other team, IMO.
6. Nootbaar I don’t think they’ll trade him. No clear outfield replacement.
7. Jo-Jo I think he’ll get extended. Probably for three years. He gets people out.
8. Herrera Talk of Herrera catching sounds weird to me. The guy can’t throw the ball. Go ahead and see if Crooks can handle catching regularly. Ideally, Contreras gets traded Herrera plays 1B. Burleson is part time DH, part time outfielder, and part time first baseman. Bernal is at least another year off. Pozo can at least hit a little bit. Give Pozo a $10k bonus if he can lose at least twenty pounds over the winter. See if another team wants Pages for their backup catcher.
9. Walker Somebody will probably acquire Walker to play first base for them. And that’s probably where he belongs.I don’t understand why they would trade Herrera or Burly. Yes, the Cardinals need pitching, but they have to score runs to win also.
Extensions for JJ, Donny and Winn should be heavily discussed. If Walker is the starting RF he either had a huge spring or they fully plan on tanking worse than this year. Also, I’m more than ok with Gorman at 3B. He got better with more reps there.We have excess quality only at 1B/DH, so that is likely what we will trade from if we want to get anything good. Nobody is going to trade a decent young starter or good young outfielder for a collection of guys who can’t hit.
I see reality hasn’t escaped this forum. We are and have been in dump mode, as this discussion shows. Shame we can’t dump the owner.
Do not trade Donovan or Burleson. We need to keep Gray & Crooks. Most of this list I don’t agree with.
Game Card…. you posted this twice…. but I agree…. its worth repeating.
The problem has always been and always will be that your best players are the ones other teams want most.
The first two options aren’t trades.
Even though Walker has vastly improved on defense, he is still one of the worst defensive outfielders in baseball. He now hits less than our AAAA centerfielders.
I don’t get the obsession with him from the Cardinals or the fans.
I didn’t say he would be traded. I have him ranked 11th most likely which isn’t very high.
I am certainly not obsessed with him. I think he should be in Memphis.
Do not trade Donovan or Burleson. We need to keep Gray & Crooks. Most of this list I don’t agree with.
I wouldn’t want to trade them either. I am just stating what the Cardinals are likely to do.
I have them down as trading 2-3 players based simply off what makes sense.
1) Burleson – Contreras is likely staying leaving Burleson still in limbo. He hit well and another team will value that so he’s worth more to someone else than he is to St. Louis.
2) Gorman – Gorman needs a change of scene and a fresh start. Even though the team will try to trade Arenado, I just don’t think it is possible. Therefore, Gorman is also in limbo.
3) Crooks – I feel less confident about this one. We know the Cardinals have too many catchers. Bernal is extremely likely to be added to the 40-man before Rule 5 time. Even if Pozo is just let go, that still leaves 4 catchers plus Contreras as emergency backup. That’s a lot. This could also be Bernal or Herrera going if someone overvalues them far more than the Cardinals.
I don’t think it’s likely anyone else is traded unless it’s some marginal deal for someone like Zack Thompson for cash considerations or a PTBNL.
That is pretty much where I am at as well jnevel.
I think Arenado and Gray are highly likely to be traded. Contreras not so much.
Of Donovan, Noot, Gorman, and Burly I think at least one and probably two of them will go. The all LH brigade needs to be thinned out. Some of the recent surgeries could impact the timing of that though.
The catching surplus needs to be thinned out. It could be Crooks or Bernal. I chose Crooks because of the aforementiond LH surplus.
JoJo will surely get dealt at some point but maybe not until the trade deadline.
I just don’t know why a team would take Arenado even if the Cardinals practically gave him away. As a former star player, he’s going to expect to play most days. And for many teams, that’s a liability since he doesn’t hit much anymore. Especially for most good teams and that happens to be where Arenado wants to go. Then you look at the other side of the coin. The Cardinals need right-handed bats. The Cardinals need good infield defense for pitchers like Pallante and McGreevey. Heck, ironically, the Cardinals might be the team that Arenado best fits. Therefore, who is going to value him more than the Cardinals? Maybe Bloom makes it happen just to end the drama of it all. But I think it’s very difficult to get done.
Gray could be traded. However the thing the Cardinals need more than anything is starting pitcher innings. It would be weird to trade Gray and pay him $20 million to pitch elsewhere saving $15 million so that we could pick up a $10 million 1-year scrap heap starter deal. Maybe someone eats more than that or offers an enticing prospect back, but otherwise the team ought to keep Sonny.
Arenado put up 1.3 WAR last year. Some team out there will be interested at the right price.
And I agree with you. I am on record as saying the Cards should keep both Arenado and Gray. I would much rather trade Gorman and leave Nado at 3B. Gray is blocking no one obviously.
I am in favor of a scaled back rebuild built on attrition instead of tearing it down to the cinder blocks. A skilled front office could rebuild this team while still staying in contention for a playoff spot. It doesn’t have to be an either/or decision.
Tender deadline is Nov. 21. Do we think there will be any non tenders among players on the 40 man roster?
Bloom will be scouring other team’s non tenders I’m sure.
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