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I am just posting to uncheck my request for email notifications of posts to this thread. I cannot stand to laugh any more but respect the right of folks to make known how they want their team to be formed and what players should be allowed to be Cardinals. Have fun folks. I need the off season off.
Those are great ideas stl25. I don’t know if the FO and ownership would dare to be that bold but I would be all in favor.
I don’t mind your trade ideas but I still would add Madison Bumgarner and hopefully, Ozuna would take a 1 yr qualifying offer and Dyman Carlson would be ready by at least June.
Those are great ideas stl25. I don’t know if the FO and ownership would dare to be that bold but I would be all in favor.
Dewitt is getting old, the closing of the Yadi/Waino era, one last run…you never know.
Nice ideas STL, i like where you are going, im personally not too keen on offering Donaldson three years but i get it.
I just am not sure the trade ideas are enough of value on our sides
-I don’t think JMart Wong and Rondon are near enough for Boston, especially given Wong only has a year left too. JMart isa cnie cheap piece, but where would he play? IF they move Bettes i thought it was so they’d pay JD, who is a DH at this point. Wong + Woodford + Randy + Nunez …and that still feels light in comparison to other offers they might get
-Cmart to Minny is interesting, but again i think it is too light for what you want back…Rogers is a beast and super cheap…I’m not sure we could ask much more from Minny than him alone given his value to a team with a low payroll…maybe Balosovic, but definitely not Gordon despite some of his lustre coming off…having said that… CMart for Rogers straight up…i’d do it (as long as it meant we would reinvest that money on FA)
-Ray deal seems super light to me…no disrespect…Thomas is fine, and Munoz is a solid reserve but i can’t imagine that would get a talk started much at all for a frontline starter like Ray…Thomas + Munoz + Gomber + Oviedo….but that seems light too…not sure what they’d want, but they seem to like our young pitchersas for Donaldson deal..at 23million per year for 3yrs…why not spend another 8m and get Rendon for 8yrs? we’d get Donaldson’s 34-37yrs….or Rendon’s 30-38yrs….about 3-4yrs of prime of Rendon, vs maybe one good year and a last hurrah for Donaldson…. I think 8yrs 31m probably gets Rendon no?
still i see the strategy…i think i personally would rather invest a big trade or two on guys we can control longer than Ray and Betts…1yr of Betts is fun and 2 of Ray is nice…but i feel a Rendon payday spending…and a trade for Merrifield and his low contract and control, as well as looking hard at some of the mid-end LHSPs on the market… (there are a few) or exploring a trade for a controllable SP… would go a bit farther…and as i said Rendon would free up Gorman to be a HUGE asset for a trade market making our trade targets much more wide
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as an aside…don’t let the door hit you minuteman, no one asked your opinion of what they should or can post and they never should…if you can’t handle reading other people’s thoughts and AT LEAST respect the people enough to NOT say anything if you are so disgusted then i think you should reconsider why you want to be a part of any community of differing opinions. Add to that, posting passive aggressively about it is so much more insulting to yourself than you probably think.I don’t think JMart Wong and Rondon are near enough for Boston, especially given Wong only has a year left too.
I tend to agree, although it should be noted that Wong has two years of control. We’d probably have to include a different OF and/or our comp pick to sweeten the deal.
Cmart to Minny is interesting, but again i think it is too light for what you want back
For Cmart the reliever, I agree. But Cmart as a starter at his $$ value is a steal and would easily fetch well more than Rogers. He’d be worth something close to what Quintana was traded for…and no reliever is worth someone like Eloy Jimenez, what the Cubs traded for Quintana. The Twins could use a starter and Rogers will start to cost a lot more in arb. The prospects are just that…you don’t get 4 years of control on a good young starter for a reliever and no name prospects. IMO at least.
Ray deal seems super light to me…no disrespect…
Ray is a rental and the Dbacks get two big league pieces for him. I’m not sure it’s that light at all. He’s a good pitcher at times but also has been average lately. So…I think one of our lower end OF and a utility guy is fair.
as for Donaldson deal..at 23million per year for 3yrs…why not spend another 8m and get Rendon for 8yrs?
Because I think Gorman will be the starter within 3 years and won’t cost gigantic money that’s sure to be a dead cost by the end of the contract. As much as Rendon has been great, I don’t buy him as a long term star and I suspect we’d get 3-4 years of atrocity at the end of his deal.
still i see the strategy…i think i personally would rather invest a big trade or two on guys we can control longer than Ray and Betts…1yr of Betts is fun and 2 of Ray is nice…but i feel a Rendon payday spending…and a trade for Merrifield and his low contract and control, as well as looking hard at some of the mid-end LHSPs on the market… (there are a few) or exploring a trade for a controllable SP… would go a bit farther…and as i said Rendon would free up Gorman to be a HUGE asset for a trade market making our trade targets much more wide
More control is fine but I think our system is set up nicely to provide good to even star level talent in the lineup for cheap in the next 3-4 years. Trading assets who have 4+ WAR potential like Gorman, Carlson (who I know hasn’t been floated), Montero, Nunez, Torres, Herrera, etc just seems like ruining our future cost savings for a short term gain. You know my feelings on Merrifield…he’s the kind of guy who becomes a near zero value if he loses a couple steps and a bit of bat speed. I’m just not willing to bet on it. I feel the same way about Matthew Boyd. I’d much rather take smaller bets on guys with higher end potential or big bets on superstars. But that’s what this thread is for, no??
Here’s a little bit of comparison for you.
Player A hit .278/.378/.472 for an .840 OPS and 132 wRC+ and 23.8 WAR in their pre-FA years. Currently 33 years old.
Player B hit .290/.369/.490 for an .857 OPS and 128 wRC+ and 32.7 WAR in their pre-FA years. Currently 29 years old.
Player C hit .276/.368/.509 for an .878 OPS and 141 wRC+ and 36.9 WAR in their pre-FA years. Currently 33 years old.
One guy costs the Cards just under $20M a year for two years, one will cost $30M a year for 8 years and one will just about split the difference for 3 years. Which would you take? A is the cheapest but also has been more of a good player than a star because it appears his defense and base running are worse than the others. B has been a star thanks to much better defense and base running than A, but is that what you want to bet $30M a year on? C has been better with the bat and the glove than both A and B, and costs less than B, but is also older and could decline faster.
I went with C in my scenario, of course. That’s Josh Donaldson. B is Rendon and A is Matt Carpenter.
So up front, I think the Cards are most likely to improve from within with a couple of minor signings to offset a few losses. I think they let Ozuna walk or take the QO. Either way is a win for the Cards in their mind. Other than that I don’t think they’ll do much, hoping for a bounce back from Carp and Goldschmidt and one of their young outfielders to step up, doesn’t matter if it’s O’Neill, Thomas, Arozarena, Garcia, Carlson, etc…
But this wouldn’t be much fun if we left it at that so…
Disclaimer: I tried my hand at projected trade values after reading Trade Surplus Values article from D-Rays Bay and adding in a few assumptions on projections and future value. Just some possibilities that interest me and you may need to sprinkle in a prospect or two. The below trades bring the Cards payroll for 2020 to ~180M (I think) and 2021 to 180M with 10M ish allocated for catcher.
Matt Carpenter to Texas +8-9M/yr for a pitching project/lottery ticket. Texas is losing Beltre and their top prospect is a few years away. Getting a local guy on a bounce back deal is a low risk type of move that won’t block Jung. That gives roughly 20M surplus to TX in basically a salary dump.
DeJong/O’Neill/Knizner to Cleveland for Francisco Lindor/Ethan Haskins – Cleveland may be shopping Lindor as they don’t want to pay what is likely to be 16-17 and 28-30M. This seems a little light but by the Surplus Value calculations shows over 120M surplus value to Cleveland (249M to 127M). They get a roughly 4 WAR (used 3.5 and 3 WAR going forward) replacement for Lindor cost controlled through 2024, a cheap replacement for Puig who is a very similar player minus the flare/attitude and a prospect swap that gets you a ML ready catcher for a pitcher in A ball. Their is some risk/reward for both sides to this I think. Herrera makes the loss of Knizner palatable but you likely need a backup catcher (more later)
Wong/Cabrera (or DeLeon/Gomber/Woodford) to Boston for D. Price/M. Chavis – Boston is trying to get under the luxury tax and rumored to be shopping Price. The Cards tried to get him before and going from a hitter friendly park to a pitcher friendly park can’t hurt. Chavis gives you a young up and coming option at 3rd that Boston has been trying to shoe horn into their line up this year at second. There is some risk to this depending on how Price performs, but I like the prospects of a bounce back with a better situation. This trade is essentially a wash by my surplus value calculations. Should save Boston roughly 20M a year that could help to bring back Betts.
Sign a Weiters/Lucroy type catcher for 2yr/5-6M
Lineup
Edman/Lindor/Goldshmidt/Chavis/Molina/Fowler/Thomas/BaderBench
Lucroy/Ravelo/Sosa/Arozarena/J. Williams/MartinezRotation
Flaherty/Price/Mikolas/Hudson/Wainwright/Martinez/PonceDeLeon/Gomber/Bullpen
Hicks/Miller/Gant/Brebbia/Leone/Fernandez/Reyes/Elledge/WhitleyLike I said a lot of risk, but a lot of reward. Gets a little pricy, but overall I think it’s an improvement in OBP at the top for Goldschmidt to drive in. Chavis is a better bridge to Gorman time wise and still has room to grow into a good hitter. Its accurate to the best of my knowledge and assumptions, but again my first try at surplus value.
Drew Pomeranz is someone I hope they target. Andrew Miller was an entirely different pitcher after moving to the pen and Pomeranz seems to fit that mold perfectly.
I know many of our fans like to play the trade game and offer their opinions on this topic. Here is one other fan’s ideas on how the Cards will deal with the off-season market. Check it out.
Who is getting traded?
A ranking of the Cardinals likely to get traded in the offseason.
By stlcardsfan4 Oct 21, 2019, 10:30am EDT
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2019/10/21/20924490/who-is-getting-tradedSTL…i get all your points, i dont agree with all of them, but it’s not like any of us have any real answers. i dont think they are foolish or not potentially correct. I just dont agree with them. But that’s no big deal.
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How about a shift in gears….how about a trade with Seattle? They are always dealing, and we have history with them
I’d love to buy low on Haniger who only really lost this past year due to a scary unfortunate male body part injury. He still has upside and is about in his prime. Can play all 3 OF, good power, good speed, good contact, and him paired with one of our youngsters and then eventually Carlson could make for a solid upside outfield.
And as I said “one” of our youngsters is how i get to us acquiring him. I think Dee Gordon could be had and would want to be moved by the M’s. He could step into our leadoff role right away, and provide good CF defense and still top 5 wheels in baseball for steals, while also providing us an offensive spark as he is still good with the bat. He has had some injuries, but we are looking for a deal here and he still provides a great option for a leadoff man
Haniger + Gordon for…. Randy + Montero + Ponce + Urias
Then trade with TEX for Minor….and to get him, take on Choo and swap with Carpenter and half the contract (evening them out, but costing TEX half the price for the next two years)
Minor + Choo for… Carp (and half salary) + JMart + Gomber + Oneill + Oviedo + Capel
Then look at ARZ and see about getting Ray….see fi we can get Fowler to go and include half the contract…
Ray for…Fowler (and half his salary) + Rondon + AdGarcia
Trade CMart to Minny….try to get Rogers….straight up
release Leone and trade Gant for a low level prospect to save money
so instead of going to FA with our eyes on the prizes, we use that money for upgrades through trades
normal increase = -25m
Carp and Fowler and JMart and CMArt = -32m
Ray= +arb (last year 6m…let’s say +8m this year)
Choo= +20m
Minor= +9.5m
Gordon= +14m
Haniger= +arb1 (…tough call coming off injury…let’s say 4m)
—coming in or money leaving = 57m
money added = 56.5mGordon, Wong, Haniger, Goldy, DeJong, Choo, Yadi, Edman
Jack, Hud, Mik, Minor, Ray
Knizner, Thomas, Bader, Munoz, Ravelo, FA-catcher(Romine?)
Rogers, Miller, Gallegos, Brebbia, Genesis, Helsley, Junior, Webbteam upgrades the offense with some better contact guys, it gets a bit old with Choo in the OF, BUT he still hits and is only here for one more year…then Carlson can come in. Gordon is expensive but provides an area of need. Ray and Minor give us big time lefty help in the rotation. Rogers gives us a young closer as well as setup dominant lefty to go with the other lefties to deal with the NL Central big time lefties.
Betting on Haniger is fine to me, as i like him, but the totality of the upgrade to the lineup of Choo, Haniger, Gordon is what makes me think that is what we are missing. Goldy and DEjong’s bat are plenty of power and the Choo and Haniger power is fine enough for second tier…Gordon is a premiere leadoff man and Wong and Edman supply upside offense…Yadi’s offense is not important as he ages and shouldnt be…
this team gets on base by hitting the ball instead of Fowler and Carp who get on base by walking…we need hitters not walkers at this point
I am sure my deals are light or awkward too..but i think there is something there with Seattle to help our offense…and I think Minor is gettable but we have to find a way to make them more apt to trade them…clearing Choo from TEX and Gordon from SEA i think would go a long way in making those deals happen…and while both have some concerns both could be very useful for a team trying to rebound offensively
Jager:
Your proposed moves are always fascinating and they’d be good moves. You provide facts and solid reasoning but the sad fact is none of these things will be done. Other people offer ideas and they are good ones too but this front office will acquire a couple of slugs and call it quits. They certainly will not go after ANY of the big names. They need BIG talent added to compete with the Astros or Yankees. The Central is weak and will be next year too, probably. Junior can save his money and still win the division. There is zero chance of wining the WS with the crap they’ll put on the field but he’ll draw 3.4 and Mo can gripe about injuries and poor performances and all will be as it always is…mediocre. Look forward to your posts…interesting stuff.
Was Goldschmidt a slug when acquired, nate? (I do give you credit for consistency of message. You say the same thing every year like clockwork.)
Hector Gomez is the same journalist who forwarded the Ozuna contract rumor. This is a little lighter!
It’s only appropriate that Big Sexy generates the first blast of heat for this year’s hot stove. If he can land a game in 2020, his career will have touched four different decades.
I always got a kick out of watching him bat — not because he was comically bad at hitting, but because evidently there is no helmet size or style that fits properly on his head.
Brian:
No, Goldschmidt was a good move and I should have noted that. He fell short of what they wanted and they should have kept going and acquired more good talent but they always stop after one acquisition and that’s why they fail every year. Yes, I have the same message because the Front Office keeps using the same failed model every year. Their way of doing things will forever give us mediocrity. Now if the get serious this off-season, which they never do but if they did then they’d get rid of Fowler, Bader, J Martinez, Carpenter, Wong, Cecil and perhaps others. Then raise the payroll to 200 million and go out and get some quality baseball talent and put a team on the field worth watching then I’d change my message, Brian. But instead of doing things the right way they’ll continue to do things the wrong way and wonder why they fail every year.
Jags, weren’t you the big Chris Owings fan? He is now a FA. I expect to see him in you suggested FA signings!
One nice thing you have to admit about our front office is that they have been able to keep us out of a
tank and rebuild. I would hate having to go through that.The two contracts that most Cardinal fans would like to get rid of are Carp and Fowler. Will the front office try to move them? Possibly, but it would require a lot of effort, ingenuity, and creative thinking. I am not saying this front office is incapable of those things but they seem to have a preference to incrementalism and the path of least resistance. Both players have NTC’s, middling performances in 2019, and I think the FO has sentimental feelings toward Carp.
But if they did try to move those players how could it be done? There are a few options:
1. Eat half or more of the contracts.
2. Throw in a highly ranked prospect in the deal.
3. Swap bad contract for bad contract.Derrick Goold suggested in his most recent chat that the Cardinals would most likely choose option 1 if they tried anything at all, kind of like they did with Mike Leake. (They didn’t eat half of Leake’s contract but they did eat some).
I would never consider option 2.
I would prefer option 3 if we could find a bad contract out there who we think represented a player who would be a good rebound candidate and/or a good change of scenery candidate. I think there might be a few of those out there. Some of these names have been mentioned on here before by other posters so I may be stealing someone else’s ideas:
Carp to the Yankees for Stanton: The thought is that the Yankees aren’t happy with Stanton and he isn’t happy in New York. Personally I wouldn’t do this deal. Not because he turned us down once but because he has 8 years left on his contract and I don’t think he will age well.
Carp to the Rangers for Choo: The thought here is that Carp might waive the NTC for Texas since that is his home area. The salaries don’t quite match up since Choo only has one year left on his contract so we would probably have to sweeten the deal for the Rangers to bite. Also,can Choo still play the OF or is he a DH only? He had a decent year with the bat in 2019.
Fowler to the Rockies for Wade Davis: This idea intrigues me. The salaries match up well and I think Davis would be a good bounce back candidate and would love to get away from Coors Field. He is not far removed from being a dominant closer. (Yes the same was said of Holland). Remember that Melancon was terrible for the Giants but bounced back in the second half for the Braves. Davis might do the same with us. He might be a good fill in closer for us until Hicks gets back. I’m sure the Rockies would like to move him although I don’t know if they would have any interest in bringing Fowler back. Having Fowler and Blackmon in the big outfield of Coors sounds scary defensively.
Fowler to the Dodgers for Kenley Jansen: This is unlikely as we would probably have to sweeten the pot a lot to make it happen but I will say that the Dodgers really seemed disenchanted with Jansen by the end of year. You could tell they didn’t want to use him in the Nats series. Andrew Friedman was asked recently if Jansen would be their closer in 2020. He basically didn’t answer the question. I wouldn’t having him in our bullpen though.
Fowler to the Giants for Cueto: Cueto did make it back from TJ to throw 16 innings in 2019. If he could bounce back to anywhere close to his old self he might be worth considering.
None of these ideas are likely to happen but I would like to see our FO get creative in trying to correct some of the mistakes they have made. There are probably other bad contract swaps out there to consider also. It is fun to think about anyway.
Well thought out, gscottar. Agree they are unlikely, though.
The one exception to my praise is Stanton. The Cheap Seats guy from the Belleville paper the other day pulled a Stanton trade idea straight out of his rear end. He should have left it there! He said Carpenter plus a prospect “would get it done”. Right.
Here in the real world rather than fantasy land, Stanton to the Cardinals would require five things ALL to happen, none of which have even been hinted by any media. I wouldn’t give all five 0.0005% chance of happening.
1) The Yankees would want to trade Stanton.
2) Stanton would be willing to waive his no-trade protection, when he refused to come to StL two years ago.
3) The Cardinals would want Stanton now, knowing he can opt out of his contract after next season.
4) Carpenter would have to be willing to waive his no-trade protection.
5) The Yankees would prefer Carpenter and whatever else the Cards would offer more than what any other team would give them for him (teams that Stanton would be willing to go to), even if #1 comes true.While true, I assumed that having to pay him would be a significant part of them wanting him or not (#3). I guess you could argue there is a difference between wanting him and being willing to take on his salary, but I would not split the two.
I was interested in Owings 2-3yrs ago before he got injured and.
Having said that, I would still be very much interested in him on a minor league deal. He could be a better version of Munoz if he still has his SS and CF chops.
I also was wanting us to sign Dietrich and Jose Iglesias last offseason too, but CC if you are only wanting to find a guy to bash on me with please continue. Big lefty power of DD in the first half would have been mighty helpful and Iglesias would have been our best offensive player.
I have never said all by ideas are 100% great moves and none of the players could be bad. I was also a big proponent of Khalil Greene before and when we went after and got him. And is and by that interest and reasoning still today. Same goes for Owings.
As a trade target I am very high on Astudillo from Minny in the new 26man team structure as his catching and ability to play everywhere on the field combined with his superhuman level of contact makes him the perfect utility player and backup bench/3rd catcher and pinch hitter extraordinaire.
Along the same lines as FA target is Blake Swihart, who may be had for a minor league deal and invite to ST. he can play outfield and can catch, and has even played 2b, 3b, 1b. he had a down year, but he is a switch hitter and is only 27. a switch hitting backup catcher with multiposition flex has value IMO. Adn at his age, he could still potentially have some upside.
We will undoubtedly release or whatever Hudson, and be looking for a backup catcher for Yadi, and I am not convinced we need Knizner to be the guy up and sitting on the bench to do that. a trade or signing for a flex position backup catcher OR even as a 3rd catcher with Knizner up too would be smart IMO. If Swihart could be had on a minor league deal and invite to ST, we could also keep that 40man roster spot open until 60 day DL is an option.
or as I said before…and STl… CMart to Minny for Rogers…then maybe ask for Astudillo as well, and see what else it might take (if anything) Rogers is a top closer and lefty setup man…and young and cheap…BUT Astudillo isnt super young anymore…however with Garver’s breakout year they dont really need another catcher….perhasp we can sneak him into a deal
This ESPN writer sees the Cardinals as fits for Cole or Rendon. Of course being a fit and making something happen are two different things.
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