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Fangraphs’ rating was before 2021 though, I believe? I could be wrong on that. I feel like the 2021 season helped move the needle on Burleson for me. I was kind of disappointed with the draft pick at the time.
Perhaps some of this is reflective of the TCN rank vs the community vote. We are quite a bit higher on him in general than you are, it seems, at #7 (he got several votes higher than that).
As I wrote, I am concerned about his fairly substantial power dropoff at each level as a corner outfielder. If he improves it at Memphis in 2022, he will rise in my assessment.
As a point of comparison, when Yepez moved up to Memphis, his OPS was .971. Burleson’s was .667, wRC+ of 81. They were both 22 years old at the time. One is in my current top 10. The other is not.
The no. 13 prospect on The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 is perhaps the most anonymous top pitching prospect in the #stlcards system. RH Andre Pallante skipped over both levels of Class-A, was strong in Double-A, reached Triple-A and impressed in the AFL. ($) https://t.co/eK08uwd3Jq pic.twitter.com/XO915XtZ1U
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 29, 2022
Pro stats are understandably slim for Burleson, but it seems like he has a substantial platoon split, similar to Nootbaar. I get a bit nervous about the long term prospects vs MLB pitching/defensive strategies of lefty hitters like that. We saw what happened to Carpenter and Matt Adams. But hoping for the best. I do like that last year’s crop of OF hopefuls were offloaded. Now give the next group a look at the top of the system. Let’s hope non-40 man players can get underway this spring without too much pandemic disruption.
The Cardinal Nation’s 12th-ranked prospect in our #stlcards Top 50 countdown for 2022 is a high-potential, high-risk high school outfielder from Massachusetts taken in the second round of the 2021 draft. What's next for Joshua Baez? ($) https://t.co/OoMQwV31tj pic.twitter.com/CZxcMKGwyI
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 30, 2022
I wouldn’t pay much attention to Burleson’s AAA stats in 2021. At the end of a whirlwind of playing at 3 levels, the last of which is the highest level of minor league ball, and doing it as a professional rookie was pretty unique. Let’s see how he does in 2022. My guess is that he’ll get some time with the big club this coming season.
Burleson (age 22) must be considered the fifth outfielder at this point. So seeing him in St. Louis is not a stretch especially with injuries and C-19. He will be Nootbaar 2021.
Agreed, Ny, unless the Cards sign a veteran OF reserve. On the other hand, Burleson shouldn’t have to be backed up behind all the others tried before Nootbaar in 2021.
CC…. good point. Burleson would be 5th roster-wise but if Edman gets off to a good start offensively he has the MLB experience to become a starter, should Bader falter.
Baez is full of potential but at his age he will most likely have to run the gauntlet through the system. A 2nd round selection will get some additional looks and some leeway. ETA = uncertain…. but looks to be 4/5 years away…. and a lot can happen with his path going forward in those years.
It would be nice to see the Cardinals get it right if it’s Burleson.
They missed with Heyward. They missed with Fowler. They missed with Ozuna. They missed with Arozarena. They missed with Thomas. They missed with Williams. They got it right with Carlson. The probably got it right with O’Neill. Jury’s still out with Bader.Last season, you heard all about the breakouts by Juan Yepez and Nick Plummer, but TCN's #stlcards 2022 prospect no. 11, Brendan Donovan, had an exceptional year as well. 40-man roster spot in hand, the infielder is on the cusp of the majors. ($) https://t.co/cWd7C9dDsa pic.twitter.com/Bbh423XJkH
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 3, 2022
The current grade on Donovan’s bat seems awfully low. In fact, I think the future grade is too low too. If there is one guy in the system that I think could hit .270 in a starting role from opening day, it’s Donovan. I don’t think the power is all that great, but he clearly can hit. I’d give him a decent chance at a .300 season at some point.
At any rate, the scout’s comment on his defense is a bit disappointing. It’s hard to see him having a future on this team at that level.
stlcard25 said:
“I think the future grade is too low too.”
His future value is somewhere in the range of Platoon player to Everyday position player. You see him as an above-average MLB regular or better?
His future value is somewhere in the range of Platoon player or Everyday position player. You see him as an above-average MLB regular or better?
To clarify, the future grade on the hit tool. From what I understand, a 50 hit tool is a .270 hitter. Perhaps there’s a different scale at play here?
My comments were about his overall future value, rather than the hit tool specifically.
P.S. I agree the current hit value is low, but the future one looks about right to me. Regarding his future, I don’t see him displacing Gorman or Arenado in the starting lineup. I expect they will have better DH options, too, though hitting from the left side is a plus.
Perhaps the best case scenario for Donovan and the team is that he plays well enough to make Edman a trade piece before he gets too expensive. It’s hard to imagine him being as good with the glove as Tommy, though. So maybe his best case will be as the trade piece. Hard to say. FWIW I agree with his overall future value. I’d probably bump the hit up and the power down, but that may be a nitpick.
I project Donovan to be of equal value offensively as Edman. It sounds like defense may be a different story. Eventually I could see him getting 250-300 AB’s a year at the MLB level, for someone.
For me at least, the key to Donovan’s success will be his versatility at hopefully 3 infield positions.
A winning team has to have good complimentary pieces on the roster, and the Cardinals don’t like to spend any money on the bench. Last year we had a problem there, our bench was mostly no hit wonders, especially early. If Donovan could upgrade that aspect, it would be a big help.
stlcard25
At any rate, the scout’s comment on his defense is a bit disappointing. It’s hard to see him having a future on this team at that level.
That was a brutal assessment for such a young, athletic guy. I don’t know what you do with him either if that’s the truth. Sounds like he’ll be more like Yairo Munoz.
Opening the top 10 in The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 countdown for 2022 is a prospect who seized the fourth outfield spot with the #stlcards in the second half of 2021. 2,000 words in our FREE report on Lars Nootbaar! https://t.co/5nYZZVkK5W pic.twitter.com/ZQkycEA3Xp
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 6, 2022
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