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So you ignore 52 exceptional innings as if they didn’t happen… A prospect list with only sure things would be very, very short. Assessing risk is part of ranking. Removing every high risk prospect is easier, but not very interesting.
Separately, our community also ranked Hjerpe #7. Probably would have been better without the elbow concern.
The number of pitchers who have been successful after arm troubles is getting longer and longer every year. To completely dismiss every player because of injury is to be purposely obtuse. As I’ve often said, to bet on any one prospect to not pan out will make one pretty rich. But baseball owners are rich and they bet on players with various issues all the time. And many succeed. Our goal (Brian and the site) is to learn about various players in the system of the team we love and make guesses and predictions about what the future of our big league team will look like. So what if not every prospect pans out? Even if only 10 of the 50 provide big league value one day (which is probably low, I’d guess at any time there are 20+ big leaguers in the system and 5-10 who will be big league regulars), it’s still an enjoyable exercise.
I can’t believe I’m going to defend Bling. It’s absurd for him to dismiss these guys entirely and not even include them in his top 50. I can’t defend that part. He’s gone overboard to prove his point and needs to self correct as usual. But I do think the risk is maybe greater than what we often consider in our rankings. He’s mostly right to say that what they are doing that makes them effective is also what makes them hurt. And if they change to keep themselves healthy, the results will also very likely change. That’s not true 100% of the time, but I’d be surprised if it’s not over 80% true. Some of these guys are huge risks. That’s why I have Hence at 7 where most have him top 3. But maybe he should be more like 10 or 12 because of the extreme risk? I get what he’s saying even if he’s being hyperbolic.
What I have seen over time, is that when you know one system really well and the other 29 much, much less so, every problem can appear extreme and unique. Without real comparative data, it is difficult to put matters into proper context so the risk is to rely on anecdotes that may or may not be valid. I have seen MLB injuries tracked, but not in the minors.
Yeah look around the league. Go pick any pitcher, and they will have almost surely have had either elbow or shoulder surgery in the past. Arm injuries are unfortunately a part of the job. I also really recommend looking at other farm systems. Injuries among prospects are super common and does not prevent them from being future stars.
Reading prior comments as well, was Bernal supposed to not do good? All prospects are simply that, propsects. The odds of any prospect succeeding are lower than of them failing, but if you simply act like everyone is a failure and can’t pick out who has a high ceiling, then you will be a failure as a farm director. You want to accumulate an excess of talented prospects and hope 1/3rd of them becomes successes.
So you ignore 52 exceptional innings as if they didn’t happen
Those 52 exceptional innings don’t matter because throwing those innings blew out his arm. Lets see 52 innings that his arm can tolerate, and see how exceptional those innings are. Then we can talk about whether we have a top prospect.
It is taking the easy way out to call an injured player a non-prospect. It is an approach to take if one cannot assess risk, so instead take the path of least resistance and assume the worst. Any Cardinals Top 50 that excludes Roby and Hjerpe is not credible. Bump them down until they prove good health, sure. Leave them off entirely, no way.
Having said that, I respect your right to express your opinion, even when on an island.
Brian, when does the prospect guide officially go on sale for this year? Is it when the top 50 list concludes in about a week?
The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown reaches no. 6 with the system’s consensus Player of the Year and Texas League Player of the Year. Triple-A should be next for catcher @jimmy_crooks22. https://t.co/DGx8AmHJPc pic.twitter.com/F6dDlxpVgV
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 26, 2024
ATM asked:
Brian, when does the prospect guide officially go on sale for this year? Is it when the top 50 list concludes in about a week?
Great question! Because the cost of printing and binding (and to a lesser extent, mailing) have increased so dramatically the past few years, I have to wait until I know how many pages the final Guide will have before I can determine the cost (and therefore, the sales price). I am hoping I don’t have to raise the price again, but it will probably be the end of January or early February until I know for sure. I also want to be able to incorporate information from Winter Warm-Up.
An alternative would be to open pre-sales early and offer price protection to those who buy ahead. But that is taking some risk on my part. What do folks think of the possibility of presales at one price and later orders at the same or a potentially higher price?
Either way, books should ship in the second half of February, with PDF version ready up to two weeks earlier.
Thank you for your interest in what will be our eighth annual in 2025.
It is an approach to take if one cannot assess risk,
I do not agree with this. It is a conclusion that results from a logical assessment of risk, rather than being based upon a hope which is irrational given observable reality.
Let’s use Hence as an example. I previously said I do not consider the 52 excellent innings because, to produce that result, required him to pitch in a self destructive way that ended with his arm sustaining damage. What would matter is how effective would he be pitching in a way that was not destructive, 52 innings that did not end with his arm hurt.
So how does one assess risk in that case? I start by assuming he is an intelligent person not bent on self destruction. He has injured his arm before, he would understand that each injury leaves behind damage that accumulates,and he would not willingly do so again for no purpose. It follows that, if he could be effective pitching in a manner that his arm could tolerate, he would do it. But he hasn’t done it. He keeps injuring his arm. The logical conclusion is that he can not pitch effectively in a way that his arm can tolerate. Which means he is not a top 50 prospect.
He could discover some way to be effective that he has not so far discovered. I admit that. But so could any of the many pitchers in the system that are not top 50 prospects. I he, or any of them, discover such a way to be effective, it will be revealed by their on field results, and we can factor it into our ranking next time.
Bling, for whatever reason, I at first thought you were making a comical argument about Brian’s risk in setting a printed price early! It could have been really funny! . . . But instead we got your normal broken arm diatribe.
I can’t help the way the world works, J. Every year we tout a bunch of broken arms, and every year they don’t amount to anything.
A lot of words to say that no matter how good the player is, any risk that is above some undefined percentage equals 100% risk to you or at least is high enough to disqualify him from being a prospect. This is an extreme view that I have never seen before.
The way the real world looks at it is like this. Every player carries risk on a scale of zero to 100, with neither extreme realistic. If a player would have 100% risk, no chance of reaching MLB, he would have a career ending injury and either retire or be released. If he has zero risk, he is Superman in possession of Kryptonite. Everyone else is somewhere between.
Sigh.
Crooks name popping up reminds me of something else I wanted to mention. On the Cardinals official site, Pages is now above Herrera in the Catcher pecking order. Well and good, we knew that. But what is interesting is that the only place Contreras’s name appears is as third string catcher. Burleson and Baker being listed 1 and 2 at both 1B and DH, with Contreras appearing at neither position.
Before anybody starts bashing something perceived as not supporting whatever narrative is careening along on the bandwagon of the day, let me mention that Contreras has said he wants to stay. That is not the same as saying he will not accept a trade. That is not the same as saying he cannot be persuaded to allow a trade. So if BillMo did want to off the contract, some subliminal messaging would not be out of the question.
This community is welcoming as ever to opposing view points, even now that the Cardinals have descended into the depths that people who have express their frustrations with this front office have predicted.
The theory is WAAAAAAY out there suggesting that webpage is subliminally reflecting anything. If one wants to suspect that Contreras will be traded or if he stays that he will be the primary DH, have at it. But the odds of those things actually happening seem low. But, hey, nothing is impossible.
That same webpage has Sonny Gray listed as the fifth starter and Miles Mikolas as number 1 in the rotation. We have this same exchange every winter about not taking it seriously, but here we are again…
I never should have given up my annual rundown of between the lines intel to be gleaned from WWU autograph pricing, but it was under appreciated.
bling said:
Those 52 exceptional innings don’t matter because throwing those innings blew out his arm.
It’s fact check time again!
Hence made 12 starts before getting hurt and eight more after he came back in late July. The last one was in Springfield’s final regular season game on September 11. So how is it that he “blew out his arm”? Now understanding that you don’t have the basic facts straight, it is clear why your conclusions are off base.
Brian, Hence looked good for 52 innings through the end of May. Then he was on the mound for 4 innings from the end of May until August. That is two months on the shelf. He did 96 innings in 2023 and 79 last year, so he is going backwards.
My feeling is that if Mo is in charge of it, Hence will continue to be pushed as a starter, with the same results. If he’s facing AAA hitters he will press all the harder. If Bloom is in charge of it, maybe something else will happen that might have a better result.
In other words, if he succeeds, Bloom gets the credit. If he fails, Mo gets the blame. Once again, perception and context means a lot.
In general, if the entire upper echelon of the pitching pipeline goes on the IL, like last year, blame Mo. If something different happens, credit Bloom.
I happen to agree that trying Hence in relief may be the best course. But the difference is that I don’t make up supposed justifications that are simply not true.
If you are unfamiliar with the quality and depth of the #stlcards minor league commentary at The Cardinal Nation, check out our FREE report on 2025 prospect #5, Thomas Saggese. Then subscribe at 10% off. https://t.co/WmeB4hfcft pic.twitter.com/oCzQEBmn5Q
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 27, 2024
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