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To recognize those players with perhaps the brightest futures in the #stlcards system, @bt_newberry and I start The Cardinal Nation's 20th annual Cardinals Top 50 Prospect Countdown with no. 50 for 2025 on Tuesday. Follow daily. https://t.co/6v8U7U0aTj pic.twitter.com/9ycu2rY6tF
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 12, 2024
In a FREE article, The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 opens with Dakota Harris, a switch-hitting infielder who played well at High-A and gained significant Double-A exposure in his first professional season. https://t.co/MTpUzoPd2k pic.twitter.com/ImRT3iBwJF
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 12, 2024
At no. 49 in The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 is a promising RH reliever struck down by injury after just nine High-A appearances in 2024. What will the return of Joseph King bring? ($) https://t.co/m4yYYEid4M pic.twitter.com/Wij6y5Dpi7
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 13, 2024
Hmmmm. That one was completely unexpected. He had fallen off my radar after getting hurt early on this season. He’s a relief only guy who has had some up and down moments of effectiveness, although was good in limited innings this season.
I’m now 0 for 2 on picking top 50 candidates with Brian and Blake – although I at least had Harris in the honorable mentions 51-56 range. Not so for Joe King. I hope I don’t go 0 for 50! Surely Quinn Mathews will fall in their list somewhere, right?
In all fairness, neither Harris (51) nor King (54) were in my personal Top 50 either. But multiple perspectives are good.
I noticed that too. But since it was behind the pay wall, I didn’t call it out. And I agree, everyone looks at these guys differently.
Half the Cardinals AFL contingent didn’t make the final (August) updated TCN top 50 list, so I wouldn’t worry much about who is or isn’t in the lower part.
As has been noted, this year’s AFL selections were generally uninspiring, but there are marginal prospects included every year (especially to get to five pitchers). That doesn’t mean there are not good prospects who were just not a fit for this year’s AFL.
I do readily agree that there isn’t much to defend placing a prospect at no. 40 vs. no. 50, for example. I often look at them relative to one another, rather than a number, which falls out at the end.
The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 48 with @KrossJosh, a 2024-drafted catcher turned first baseman with interesting power potential yet to be demonstrated. ($) https://t.co/0oJw0FEWVe pic.twitter.com/CVq714Xy3R
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 14, 2024
That’s 0 for 3 for me now. Kross didn’t make my list because I’m assuming he is 1B only now and he didn’t hit enough for a 1B only candidate. The K/BB ratio was great though and he certainly has power from his college days. He was kind of fun to watch when he broke out in the short Palm Beach postseason.
I’m still crossing my fingers that I’ll get someone right one of these days . . .
Coming in at no. 47 on The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 is an OF who had to take a step backward to perhaps move forward. After four pro seasons, Joshua Baez is still just 21 years of age but has not escaped A-ball. ($) https://t.co/6VyyRad50d pic.twitter.com/UTa8x1XtmZ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 15, 2024
Ok. I finally got one. Baez is indeed still on my list as well. I’m actually thinking 2025 will finally be a good year for him, although he’s still likely to strikeout too often. I’ve spent a couple seasons being completely frustrated with Baez, but something seemed to start clicking with him late last year that makes me believe he’s going to find some success – at least in Peoria anyway.
Brian & Blake – thanks for sharing your thoughts.
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 46 with Jack Findlay, a 2024-drafted LHP who starred for Notre Dame prior to Tommy John surgery. Check out his scouting report by @bt_newberry. ($) https://t.co/BSltbR6eaZ pic.twitter.com/1nHRBJjy3n
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 16, 2024
Reading the Baez report…he really is another in the line of Tre Fletcher who had ability, but just never could reach it. At 21, the book isn’t closed, but it seems very unlikely that he’ll reach the majors with the Cardinals. He’s only got a couple of years til he’s a free agent.
I’ve been waiting for one of the TJs to come up. I don’t understand anything that is going on, including, apparently, player acquisition. Flores uses his historically high draft pick to go for a high floor right side middle infielder, and then, I guess, makes up by trying to squeeze some extra upside out of the middle rounds by going for injured pitchers. That despite pitchers in the upper system being currently stacked up on the training table like a cord of firewood. I don’t get it. Add to that trying to hire ML coaches to work for a lame duck manager, trying to hire FO staff to work for a lame duck PBO. Really questionable messaging. Hiring a guy who is all about reconnecting with The Cardinal Way while simultaneously taking one of the last vestiges of that era, Willie McGee, and moving him to what is likely a do nothing FO berth to ride out a final contract year in obscurity. What am I missing? I hate to break it to you, but I am not overwhelmed with optimism. I wish this guy well, but if there was ever a dart being thrown at a board blindfolded, this is it.
I agree, Bling.
I didn’t like this past draft at all. Wanted upside in rounds 1 & 3, we chose floor.
As for drafting injured players, here are the three I recall them drafting prior to this year:
– Steven Gingery (2018, round 4) – pitched 0.2 innings in the minors, then retired
– Alec Willis (2021, round 7) – has pitched 15.1 innings across three years
– Travis Honeyman (2023, round 3) – has 82 plate appearances in two yearsDiscounting injury risk is time honored, and going strong. One of them has had setbacks in his recovery. I don’t remember which, but on some thread or other I posted a link to an article where the youngster talked about it.
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 45 with lefty Drew Rom, who debuted with St. Louis and made eight starts in 2023 before missing the entire 2024 season. FREE article. https://t.co/5CzHKsnIPj pic.twitter.com/vXwyK6ko15
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 17, 2024
Never in the history of baseball has there been a pitcher who was better after shoulder surgery than he was before. Rarely, he can resume whatever effectiveness he had before.
Fernando Rodney. Chris Carpenter.
The list isn’t long I’m guessing. But there’s a couple examples.
There’s a professional study done on this out there if you want to read it. In general, most pitchers never get 100% back to their pre-surgery level. In general, it takes about 3 years to get back to around 95% of pre-surgery levels. So yeah, shoulder surgery is bad. Like anything, there are a few exceptions, but the general rule is that a guy is going to take 3 years to recover and may never be good again. That’s really bad for Rom since he wasn’t great before the surgery.
Yeah, that is sadly the case. Unless it is simply impossible, guys with shoulder trouble try to persevere by shutting down until the inflamation subsides. The body has no mechanism for repairing structural damage to cartilage, so damage accumulates. Even when the damage is to muscle, ligament or tendon, which the body can repair,at least somewhat, it leaves behind scar tissue, and that accumulates with subsequent injury as well.
The issue shoulder trouble guys face is that when they return, if they utilize the same mechanics, they will reinjure the same structure. So they have to tweek the mechanics and hopefully find something that can be effective and the shoulder can tolerate. So even if they do come back, they are not the same pitcher. They may or may not be equally effective. It is why I do not bet on bum shoulder guys.
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