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I guess we’re a bunch of old farts now, but it’s surprising to me that people forget that these are very young, very fit athletes. It wouldn’t be a shock at all if someone who is already in the top 1% of the most talented athletes in the world was capable of finding a way to effectively participate in the sport they’re great at despite an injury.
Heck, I’m no great athlete but I had a fairly significant injury (repetitive use, won’t go away) that greatly affected my ability to do something I love about 4 years ago and sure enough, I found a way to be even better at it going forward.
Hence, Hjerpe and Roby may end up as complete non factors for St Louis or they could be our #1, 2 and 3 starters in the 2028 NLCS. Our best guess based on their history and results plus projection gives us some idea of what’s most likely, but it of course can never tell the entire story. I suppose others take the data and come to different conclusions. Keeps the forum busier.
An alternative would be to open pre-sales early and offer price protection to those who buy ahead. But that is taking some risk on my part. What do folks think of the possibility of presales at one price and later orders at the same or a potentially higher price?
I will personally get the electronic version as it is much easier to search through that way, so I am unsure how much the pre-sale versus later sales price is affected by the e-book version. I also don’t mind paying whatever the end full price ends up being as I know this is a lot of work between you and Blake.
I really hope I am wrong on Saggasse. Reading his scouting report from Blake, he is relatively average across the board which is a good player. I just worry about his ability to deliver value given his very poor walk rate. I know he improved it in the Fall League, but I read in a Fangraphs chat where he was intentionally being extra passive, but Saggasse still was not making great swing decisions in close counts. If Saggasse is able to hit 20-25 HRs a year, I do think he has a starting role toward 6-8 lineup range shot even if his walk rate is poor.
Ranked no. 4 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown is a promising RHP who earned a 40-man roster spot despite being slowed by shoulder problems since joining the #stlcards system in July 2023. What is next for Tekoah Roby? https://t.co/W4BgyqY4rf pic.twitter.com/deJUJWYx7U
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 28, 2024
Usually I am critical of the practice of moving up a pitcher who has not established dominance at level. But I don’t think there is a good choice in the case of Roby. Unlike guys like Hence and Hjerpe, Roby’s on field results have not been especially good. He has to have the shoulder of a 40 year old by now and it is not going to get better. Unlike a McGreevy who goes 150 innings year after year coming up, Roby’s health issues prevent him from being on the mound enough to work up the mental side of the game and learn the art. He has to succeed by throwing it past guys. With that in mind, given health through ST, I think we need to put him in AAA and find out if he has enough arm left to compete vs the more advanced hitters. But if he is going to contribute, he has to come up with a way to pitch that his arm can tolerate. We have no idea what that would look like.
I understand the sentiment to get Roby moving, especially if he has a limited number of bullets left, but we don’t know that. What do you see in his 6.57 ERA, 6.12 FIP, 1.62 WHIP in 38 innings at Double-A in 2024 that suggests he wouldn’t get killed in Triple-A? He has three minor league option years remaining so time isn’t a major factor yet.
I’m a little surprised Roby is still #4. The injuries and struggles pushed him down my list a little further personally. I don’t have access to the article yet, but I do recall Blake in last years being very high on Roby’s stuff.
For a comparison point from a different source, Fangraphs has been very high on Roby and has him in the top 100 at one point. They dropped him to a 40+ this year due to injury concerns and a little velo drop but state he still has mid rotation upside. He definitely has top 5 in the system upside, and hopefully he can stay healthy next year to work on his command. I think he may have to move to the pen at some point but would be a lock down reliever type.
We may be slow in knocking Roby down but we discuss many factors, pro and con, in the article.
With 10% off the subscription price, now would be the time to sign up! 😉
Yeah, I get it. But the issue is staying on the mound, and he can face that in AAA as well as in AA, so we might as well find out if all the impressive statcast measurables means he can throw it past more advanced hitters with any degree of effectiveness. If on field results was our yardstick, he wouldn’t be a top prospect, so I don’t think we need to be bound by that now.
bling said:
If on field results was our yardstick, he wouldn’t be a top prospect, so I don’t think we need to be bound by that now.
But we are not talking about prospect ranking; we are talking about readiness for a higher level. I would not be in favor of promoting a guy coming off injury who cannot yet compete at his current level. Some might call that rushing him.
How many innings with good results will it take to satisfy the “compete at his current level” requirement?
bling asked:
How many innings with good results will it take to satisfy the “compete at his current level” requirement?
That would be a determination made by the Cardinals, but based on their past actions, I would guess at least 6-8 starts of five innings or better. By Memorial Day if he comes out of the gates hot.
The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown reaches no. 3 with a very talented RHP whose 2024 was interrupted by injury. Will Tink Hence be able to handle a true starter’s workload or should the #STLCards try Plan B? @bt_newberry and I discuss. https://t.co/nHM3MgqNKB pic.twitter.com/OnDgnL0rOI
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 29, 2024
Who will make the decisions relating to Hence in 2025? What level, what role, how innings load is managed?
I had forgotten about the early exit from his final start and missing Springfield’s post season. I assume nothing is known about that?
I did not withhold information. If someone else knows more, please share it.
Regarding who makes minor league pitching decisions, here is the new hierarchy. As far as how they will make decisions, they may not even know yet.
Chaim Bloom
Rob Cerfolio, AGM
Matt Pierpont, Director of Pitching
Austin Meine, Pitching CoordinatorNot necessarily. We have no idea how hands on Mo is going to be in the new PD hierarchy, especially in the case of high-profile prospects.
Then again, since Hence is not among the Top 50 prospects, he is too insignificant for the upper level folks to care about. 😉
Hence was only 17 years old when drafted in 2020. He’s now 22 years old and won’t turn 23 until next August. He’s gained at least 20 lbs. since drafted. I have no facts because the Cardinals don’t reveal anything specific about a prospect’s health. But I’m going to guess that a good part of Hence’s time on the IL was a result of the Cardinals’ staff babying him while they waited for him to grow up physically.
Blake and Brian have some impressive analyses concerning Mathhews, Hence, Roby, and Hjerpe. But how many of them can outgrow the injury threat.
I’m also interested to see if Pallante got better over the offseason, and Fedde is a better pitcher than what we have seen so far. I’m also interested to see if Matz pitches a lot better now that he is in his walk year. Things just seem to work out that way sometimes.
Things just seem to work out that way sometimes.
It looks like the top two on Brian and Blake’s list will be guys who haven’t been in system long enough for things to go wrong. Things just seem to work like that sometimes too. All we can do is keep our fingers crossed, but it would be wise for Randy to get us a shiny new one to slide in at the top next year, just in case.
Last year’s “shiny new one” at the top did pretty well, as I recall. (Remember, he is the guy you called a bust this time last year!) So all is not gloom and doom.
mud, thank you for the compliment on our work.
Regarding Hence’s weight, adding 20 pounds between age 17 and 22 isn’t all that surprising, IMO. It appears he will always be comparatively slight of build. That doesn’t mean he can’t succeed, as I mention Pedro Martinez every time this comes up. It does decrease his odds though.
The top-ranked pitcher in The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown at no. 2 was the hands down best hurler in the system in 2024. How soon will highly decorated lefty Quinn Mathews join the #STLCards' rotation? https://t.co/YHzMtu0qnA pic.twitter.com/YLaBb6ithS
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 30, 2024
The community was much, much lower on Roby than the TCN experts (12th vs 4th). Not terribly surprising, there. I think Roby’s only shot is to go to the pen, although occasionally a guy can overcome these types of injuries (Carpenter, Garcia from our own history).
Hence has to be a little lower than Mathews, as Mathews is a sure fire starter and Hence is still on the knife’s edge. I still like Tink to have an impact, but I don’t know if the Cards have the foresight to be able to utilize him (along with Hjerpe) in a role that’s more useful than a bullpen arm if he can’t hold up to 100 pitches a start. I’m still on the 50-70 pitch hybrid role for guys like this bandwagon.
It will be very interesting to see how the new player development brain trust view Hence, Roby and Hjerpe.
I’m still up for having a bunch of 3-4 inning pitchers (5 max) and just a few 1-2 inning guys. Let Gray stay as a true starter and maybe Mikolas depending on how well he’s pitching. Then 8 flex guys and 3 firemen. This is the season to try it if there ever is one. I’ve thrown this out there on the members side a few times. Since guys are generally much better the first 1-2 times through an order, just have them doing only that. 18-batter maximum.
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