Home › The Cardinal Nation Forums › Open Forum › The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 Top 50 Prospect Countdown
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Brian Walton.
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November 29, 2024 at 7:18 am #272541
I have previously wondered if Flores went for a couple injury risk picks to get maximum potential high end pop after going for more of a high floor sure thing type with the 7th overall pick.
November 30, 2024 at 6:26 am #272571The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown reaches no. 32 with a pitcher who made major changes to his offerings and turned into Memphis’ best reliever in 2024. ($) pic.twitter.com/Fkf3kmmw4b
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 30, 2024
November 30, 2024 at 7:31 am #272572Brian, I couldn’t link to the article from the tweet, fyi.
November 30, 2024 at 7:40 am #272573Thanks for the tip.
Here's the link: https://t.co/cMfezmzFDS https://t.co/mZZJcAzSJF
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 30, 2024
November 30, 2024 at 9:49 am #272574I have Loutos coming up on my list several slots higher, upper 20s. He is an example of a thread that runs through my baseball worldview that brick and mortar baseball is played by humans, not by spreadsheets of data manipulated by analytics and algos. It is the measurables which can be reliably quantified that gain in importance because that is what can be reduced to useful input. But intangibles matter in the real world, and intangibles can relate not only to characteristics of the individual, but also to characteristics of the environment that individual is traversing, and to the relationship between the two. In my baseball world, such intangible factors can legitimatly factor into rating and ranking a prospect. This affects Loutos as it does Prieto. They are in the right place at the right time with a skill set that is probably good enough to take advantage of the opportunity presented. Chompers used to call it getting a break and taking advantage of it. A break can affect a player’s career trajectory, and we are forecasting and estimating career trajectories.
November 30, 2024 at 4:32 pm #272588Blake’s scouting report credits Loutos’ turnaround to entirely changing his offerings. One thing that is not in your worldview is that players can actually get better. That is especially the case for someone already at Triple-A.
November 30, 2024 at 4:55 pm #272590They can get better, they can get worse. There are plenty of examples.
December 1, 2024 at 7:25 am #272597At no. 31 on The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown is our choice as the Reliever of the Year across the system in 2024. Luis Gastelum possesses a truly exceptional changeup. ($) https://t.co/KnO6yHE6FC pic.twitter.com/BCfzrw52Fs
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 1, 2024
December 2, 2024 at 6:59 am #272642The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 30 with the first pitcher taken by the #STLCards in the 2024 draft. How fast can RH Brian Holiday @brian_holiday14 advance? FREE report! https://t.co/2Svjsy7Onh pic.twitter.com/E45i9Vk39a
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 2, 2024
December 2, 2024 at 8:52 am #272644I thought high floor pitchability was out.
December 3, 2024 at 7:24 am #272672Ranked 29th on The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown is the best offensive player on the 2024 Memphis Redbirds. OF Matt Koperniak is now on the #STLCards' 40-man roster and on the cusp of his MLB debut. https://t.co/OIqhbgobn2 pic.twitter.com/2PgexjIMT7
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 3, 2024
December 3, 2024 at 12:27 pm #27267914NyquisT
ParticipantIt looks like Koperniak is in the TCN’s doghouse. Which means he’ll get the same treatment Edman and Helsley etc got when they were coming up. We get it.
December 3, 2024 at 12:36 pm #272683Sorry you continue to feel that way, Ny. The reality is that we all see prospects differently and only much later on, when the hindsight is 20-20, does anyone know for sure who makes it and who doesn’t.
For the players we were not as optimistic about as you, feel free to celebrate. But we all know there were other cases in which the shoe was on the other foot. If anyone could bat 1.000 in the prospect game, they would be a superstar.
December 3, 2024 at 4:31 pm #272698I still don’t get how Koperniak’s ability and results add up to a 50 hit tool at the big league level. If there’s one thing I’m confident about Koperniak, it’s that he would hit for average if given regular playing time. Oh well, betting on any prospect to not succeed will generally win you bets.
December 3, 2024 at 10:16 pm #272710FWIW, how others see it.
Fangraphs has Koperniak’s hit tool at 40/45. BA has him at 55.
MLB Pipeline does not include Koperniak among their top 30 Cardinals prospects.
December 4, 2024 at 5:35 am #272713In my mind factors which matter include health risk and opportunity. My thinking about Koperniak is he is in the right place at the right time with a skill set that seems adequate to take advantage of the opportunity presented. As a consequence, I would give him better odds of having a meaningful ML career that quite a few players who will ranked above him on both the TCN and Community lists.
December 4, 2024 at 6:30 am #272714Agreed, but ranking is not all about the surest thing to reach MLB. Otherwise everyone at Memphis would be top ranked. 40-man players would also get preference. Instead, a lower odds player further down in the system may have a chance to reach a higher ceiling if everything goes right.
A number of factors have to be blended together, but each person’s recipe is different. No rights or wrongs, just varying opinions. If everyone saw it the same way, there would be no need to have a community vote.
December 4, 2024 at 6:42 am #272716At no. 28 on The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 Top 50 prospect countdown is the #stlcards' second pick in the 2023 draft who has been healthy for just 20 games to date in his pro career. What is next for OF Travis Honeyman? https://t.co/0VuB7LJrwU pic.twitter.com/lBABpdf5aY
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 4, 2024
December 5, 2024 at 7:24 am #272741The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown reaches no. 27 with OF Zach Levenson, who is looking to unlock his considerable power potential after missing the final seven weeks of 2024 due to injury. https://t.co/GVzeCRo7wR pic.twitter.com/RgS4oDExKn
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 5, 2024
December 5, 2024 at 9:57 am #272745We are starting to cross over some votes with the expert vote and the site vote, which is interesting. Should be fun to see how we interested novices stack up against the pros on these ones coming up.
December 5, 2024 at 10:47 am #272746I was thinking about these last two, Honeyman and Levenson, and suddenly a light bulb went on. You can’t disappoint on the field if you are not on the field. That puts you ahead of a lot of guys who are out there playing. What an epiphany. I bet it works the same for pitchers as we will soon see.
December 6, 2024 at 6:19 am #272785Ranked 26th in The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown is a lefty who stood out in A-ball during his first full season before heading to the Arizona Fall League. What is next for Ixan Henderson? https://t.co/7kbjclzgCp pic.twitter.com/rpnjjHYRnQ
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 6, 2024
December 7, 2024 at 7:37 am #272834The second half begins!
The Cardinal Nation’s Top 50 prospect countdown for 2025 reaches no. 25 with one of the #STLCards' most expensive international signings ever. Is IF Jonathan Mejia ready for Class-A in his fourth year? Free report! https://t.co/UrVd9Lj58E pic.twitter.com/tkEEmcqkpF
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 7, 2024
December 7, 2024 at 1:10 pm #272858That is the downside at signing at such a very young age. He can run out of runway with the Cardinals before being fully physically developed to handle the appropriate level.
December 8, 2024 at 6:00 am #272888Coming in at no. 24 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2025 #stlcards Top 50 prospect countdown is a right-hander with an above average fastball and command. Gerardo Salas seems ready for High-A. https://t.co/G8y7AwI2mA pic.twitter.com/ixlk6klZyD
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 8, 2024
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