- This topic has 200 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2023 prospect no. 19 is a left-hander who elevated his game with a new pitch in the Arizona Fall League and earned a 40-man roster spot. When will Connor Thomas reach St. Louis and in what role? ($) https://t.co/fEMm41HuQO pic.twitter.com/nLWjHeGSxz
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 27, 2022
Thomas must have whiplash from plummeting in the monthly rankings due to an unimpressive season and then rocketing back up between the end of the season and now. He rolled out a new pitch that nobody had seen and had good results with it over 25 innings. Hopefully he will continue to have good results this spring, but he won’t be taking anyone by surprise. I’m sure attrition will give him his chance.
At no. 18 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 #STLCards prospect countdown is our top reliever in the system for two years running. This should be the year hard-throwing Freddy Pacheco makes his debut, but what will he need to do to stick in the bigs? ($) https://t.co/Yno8LZua38 pic.twitter.com/3Y4Aulq8wE
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 28, 2022
The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 #STLCards prospect no 17 is a fast-rising 18-year-old who played well at High-A Palm Beach in his first year in the US. Who is Leonardo Bernal and what is next for the catcher? ($) https://t.co/kmdSdeeK0f pic.twitter.com/HmqkrNITTv
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 28, 2022
I missed Pacheco above. He’s another Cabrera.
Bernal is what the 17 year old signees need to be these days. No dawdling in the lowest levels clogging things up. Sounds like a solid player. I’ll make every effort to get to Peoria to see him.
Pretty excited about Bernal. May just be an anomaly, but his power numbers are very impressive for the Florida state league. Very rare to be on a pace for 20+ home runs, especially at 18. He takes Peoria hitting at that clip or better, then we have ourselves a top 5 prospect.
At no. 16 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 prospect countdown for 2023 is the #STLCards' third rounder and third college lefty drafted in 2022. What differentiates @peterhansen33 and what development remains? ($) https://t.co/Mr7sEXdU8e pic.twitter.com/uccnUAY4Xa
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 29, 2022
Once ST starts it won’t take long for somebody to put a gun on Hansen’s FB and see what good he did for himself in Jupiter last year.
At no. 15 on The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2023 Top 50 prospect countdown is a 2x 2022 Pitcher of the Month who only reached Peoria late in the season. Inohan Paniagua was left unprotected in the Rule 5 Draft but was not taken. What is next? FREE report! https://t.co/nIJI6x3tp0 pic.twitter.com/2J4ZYbvAux
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 30, 2022
At no. 14 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 #STLCards prospect countdown is the 2022 Minor League Baseball home run champion one scout calls a poor man’s Yoenis Cespedes or Yasiel Puig. But where will Moisés Gómez fit in a crowded St. Louis outfield? ($) https://t.co/cI0jnkbXmz pic.twitter.com/IOb4xYjOPi
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 31, 2022
We’ve been loaded down with gold gloves the last couple years and couldn’t field our way to the World Series. Enough of that. Time to dial up the thumpage. Average(ish) glove is fine, especially with a plus arm and hustle. I’m excited to see Gomez this spring along with Walker and Yepez and Burleson and Gorman and Carlson and O’Neill.
At no. 13 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 #STLCards prospect countdown is the organization's second rounder in 2022. What sets lefty Brycen Mautz apart and what is his ceiling? ($) https://t.co/X9AReaqZpe pic.twitter.com/HarqNteO1s
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 2, 2023
The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 #STLCards prospect countdown reaches no. 12 with a very toolsy and promising outfielder whose 2022 was interrupted by injury. Still a teen, Joshua Baez’ future remains bright. ($) https://t.co/oDSx3lUqAp pic.twitter.com/NjocaIknVe
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 2, 2023
Not sure which “we” you mean, Kemosabe, but this community independently voted Baez 12th, same as us. Guessing you have a minority dissenting opinion… 😉
Even if he flops, you can’t deny the raw tools he has flashed. Making contact isn’t as much of a thing as it used to be unfortunately. Really…he could drop to the bottom of the list or rise to the top of it this year as with many players. Exciting time to be a Cardinal minor league baseball fan! The pool is deep.
Well anyway, we know Baez’s BABiP will come down. If it drops about 100 pts it will be in Gomez 2022 territory. We tend to either emphasize or brush off anomalous statistical aspects of a player’s performance. For example, much is made of Woodford’s unsustainable HR%, but massively unsustainable BABiPs (for certain players), and the effect of future normalization, are brushed aside. In the end, results will matter, for someone. We will have to stay tuned to see what happens.
At no. 11 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 #stlcards top prospect countdown is a Dominican shortstop who received a very large bonus to sign and had a good offensive debut. Still, 17-year-old Jonathan Mejia is a long way from St. Louis. ($) https://t.co/JdoBB0JeY3 pic.twitter.com/YPdAE79qn1
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 3, 2023
I’m really surprised we haven’t seen Thompson yet on this list. I have him at 14 although basically he was a toss-up with Gomez at 13 on my list. I really have to think that if we offered another organization their choice of either taking Thompson from us in a trade or taking Bernal or Mejia, they’d choose Bernal or Mejia nearly every time. Therefore, those 2 guys are more valuable and likely are better prospects. Thompson is most likely bullpen only now and I’m not real confident that he’ll be better than average there. He may. He was in a small sample size last year with several low and high leverage inning mixed in together. Sure, he’s got the pedigree of a first rounder. But who would you rather have in your organization if you had to lose 2 of the following: Thompson, Bernal, or Mejia? I’d likely keep Bernal first and then Mejia next. And that would be a tough decision between those 2. But Thompson would definitely be out.
I’m happy to have him. We struggle with bullpen lefties and have for many years. And there’s still some time to develop. But is he really top 10? Call me surprised.
This message board community placed Thompson at no. 9. Perhaps until our site article runs. some of those voters can explain their thinking.
Regarding trade value, it all depends on what the acquiring team is looking for. An effective left-handed arm who is MLB-proven and low cost will have greater immediate value to a team ready to win now than say a teenage catcher in Low-A. A team building for the future but less concerned about the current year might see it differently.
One of the features we added over the years to our prospect rankings is the risk factor in a player achieving his potential. For Thompson, it will be much lower than a Bernal, for example. Some “can’t-miss” prospects eventually do miss… One of the post top 50 features I write is to re-rank the top 50 based on potential only. That makes for a very different list.
Thanks for reading and commenting!
I totally get the huge risk factor for Bernal and Mejia. Mejia is basically in the extreme risk category. But unless your team desperately needs a left-handed bullpen arm now, I’m thinking any team would still rather have Bernal or Mejia in a deal over Thompson. Wouldn’t you?There’s certainly some risk that Thompson isn’t very good either. But his floor is low leverage middle relief and I get that is still something vs a floor of nothing for Mejia and Bernal.
And I think our community definitely rated him high at 9. They liked him for his limited good results in the Cardinals bullpen. It seemed like some had him as high as #6 or 7.
I was just expecting to see him lower than top 10. Just my opinion. I accept that I may be wrong and hope Thompson proves me so.
Some value the present more than the future. Others may see it the other way around. No rights or wrongs at this point. Just opinions.
Maybe someone could dig up a scouting report on Thompson after his junior year of high school. We could compare him and Mejia after their age 17 seasons.
Opening the top 10 of The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect countdown for 2023 is the organization’s first rounder from 2022. Where will lefty Cooper Hjerpe open his career and how fast will he advance? FREE report! https://t.co/Tqd0L6YZGH pic.twitter.com/tbihDERNPB
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 4, 2023
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.