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The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2023 prospect no. 43 is Anyelo Encarnacion, an 18-year-old second baseman who broke out offensively in his second season in the Dominican Summer League. ($) https://t.co/qpYUwMtnM2
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 28, 2022
In my mind, evaluating a prospect, and ranking prospects, must factor in risk, or likelihood of making it to MLB, as well as physical tools. In that sense, I wonder how the new MiLB configuration, with far fewer low level roster slots, should affect the risk assessment of the international teenagers. They need to get good enough, fast enough to get a scarce roster slot while facing ever more advanced competition. The ability to linger in level is not what it was. (I know nothing about Encarnacion, so this thought does not single him out in any way)
I think most places try to strike the balance between projection and proximity. Certain prospect raters tend to be enamored with toolsy players and high ceilings, and others tend toward production.
I would say that most people use prospect peeping as a way to keep up with guys who may play on their big league team one day. As such, if the list tends toward the upper levels, they’ll be more likely to see those guys play in St Louis but potentially less likely to catch guys who make an impact 2, 3, 4 years down the road. Let’s face it, we want to know who could potentially grace the starting lineup in Busch for months or years ahead, so the “cup of Joe” guys don’t mean as much. So there’s a need to look at not only the likelihood that they make the big leagues, but also the chance that they’ll be a good big leaguer. TCN does a pretty solid job of that, IMO.
For instance, here’s the 2017 top prospect list. We know pretty much who all these guys are at the big league level now. Looking back, we didn’t have a 100% success rate but did an overall good job. There are some hits and misses at every level but it looks like the top of the list had more success and the bottom was more sporadic. That’s expected and should help shape the view of these initial top 50 reveals.
2017 Top Prospect Voting Results
Alex Reyes 1
Luke Weaver 2
Carson Kelly 3
Delvin Perez 4
Jack Flaherty 5
Dakota Hudson 6
Harrison Bader 7
Sandy Alcantara 8
Austin Gomber 9
Junior Fernandez 10
Magnerius Sierra 11
Jake Woodford 12
Ryan Helsley 13
Paul DeJong 14
Edmundo Sosa 15
Eliezer Alvarez 16
Allen Cordoba 17
Dylan Carlson 18
Alvaro Seijas 19
Randy Arozarena 20
Tim Cooney –
Marco Gonzales 22
Nick Plummer 23
Johan Oviedo 24
Jordan Hicks 25
Bryce Denton 26
Jeremy Martinez 27
Ronnie WIlliams 28
Connor Jones 29
Derian Gonzalez 30
Jonatan Machado 31
Mike Mayers 32
Tommy Edman 33
Zac Gallen 34
Breyvic Valera 35
Ian Oxnevad 36
John Kilichowski 37
Sam Tuivailala 38
Rowan Wick 39
Matt Pearce 40
Daniel Poncedeleon 41
Andrew Knizner 42
Carlos Soto 43
Dennis Ortega 44
Andrew Morales 45
Darren Seferina 46
Luke Voit 47
Matt Fiedler 48
Jose Martinez 49
Ian McKinney 50
Chris Chinea 51
Trey Neilsen 52
Wadye Ynfante 53
Walker Robbins 54
Corey Littrell 55
Victor Garcia 56
Vince Jackson 57
Franyel Casadilla 58
Brady Whalen 59
Caleb Lopes 60
Sam Tewes 61
Bryan Dobzanski 62
Arturo Reyes 63
Francis Ventura 64
Oscar Mercado 65
Brian O’Keefe 66
Brian Sanchez 67
Jorge Rodriguez 68
Julio Rodriguez 69
Joshua Lopez 70At no. 42 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards 2023 prospect countdown is Gustavo Rodriguez, a 21-year-old RHP who had a very strong comeback in 2022, but still has a long development road ahead to reach St. Louis in limited time. ($) https://t.co/7f9DdXu2CB pic.twitter.com/dU7kUd1OPU
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 29, 2022
That 2017 Top Prospect voting list has 15-20 players who got significant MLB playing time. Pretty impressive, IMO.
The Cardinal Nation’s #stlcards 2023 top prospect countdown reaches no. 41 with an outfielder who does everything well. Matt Koperniak put in a full year at Double-A in his second professional season and has competed internationally. ($) https://t.co/Vojib51IIx pic.twitter.com/j3ySmHYhRv
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) November 30, 2022
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 reaches no. 40 with Ryan Loutos, a RH reliever who shot through three levels and finished 2022 with a solid turn in the Arizona Fall League, but is still a work in progress. FREE report! https://t.co/zqrR7fkbTH pic.twitter.com/jtAQzyA6s5
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 1, 2022
I had Loutos low twenties but finding out he’s a computer wonk is going to drop him a few. I’d have rather they caught him under the bleachers smoking cigars with the guys.
At no. 39 in The Cardinal Nation’s 2023 Top 50 prospect countdown is the #STLCards' sixth-round draft pick in 2022. Max Rajcic received third-round money to sign early, which may better indicate where the right-handed pitcher’s talent stacks up. ($) https://t.co/GG176P4use pic.twitter.com/qmuf8XLPdX
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 3, 2022
The Cardinal Nation’s no. 38 #STLCards prospect for 2023 is Jeremy Rivas, a 19-year-old shortstop from Venezuela with a strong defensive profile, but a bat that has yet to emerge. ($) https://t.co/kRvgYnGbsN pic.twitter.com/sIVmJQyKqe
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 3, 2022
A reflection of too many years of conditioning of writing Low-A Peoria and High-A Palm Beach. The old classifications slip back in now and then.
In the article, the rest of the section made it clear that Palm Beach was intended. But it was a mistake that I have now corrected. Thank you for pointing it out.
Any comments about the content?
How many Rivases have come and gone. You hand a 16 year old kid $600,000, pull the pin and start praying. Three years from now, when he can buy himself a beer, maybe there will be enough left of the $600,000 to pay the tab.
A reflection of too many years of conditioning of writing Low-A Peoria and High-A Palm Beach. The old classifications slip back in now and then.
In the article, the rest of the section made it clear that Palm Beach was intended. But it was a mistake that I have now corrected. Thank you for pointing it out.
Any comments about the content?
The content in all of these write ups are very informative. I always learn something I didn’t know. I had forgotten that the Cardinals view Rajcic as a draft steal, hence the $600k signing bonus.
I agree with gscottar, the write ups are a gold mine. I find it helpful to look at the write ups for a player who has been in the top 50 in past years and see what was said then and now.
For example, the undisputed world record for throwing shade on a prospect but somehow still ranking him #32 anyway was established in a write up for the 2021 Top 50.
Bling I hope your comment about poor Money management skills was not a case of ethnic stereotyping but it sort of comes off that way.
CC, The point I was aiming for applies in the case of any 16 year old signee. But if it came off that way, I regret the careless wording. I guess I could have clarified that I didn’t so much have in mind that the kid would mismanage the bonus, but that it would be gone nonetheless. But I can see where that could be problematic as well.
I don’t know if I agree with the idea that working out of the pen might be best for now. An inning here and an inning there. Bedell needs IPs in the worst way and limited runway in which to get them. And the organization needs to find out if his arm will hold together and if he can pitch effectively post TJ. There is little point getting to a place where we have to use him or lose him and he’s got to face top of the system hitters with a few dozen IPs in the low and mid levels under his belt. I see another inexperienced Thompson getting munched on by AAA hitters fattening up. We don’t want to go there again.
At no. 36 in The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards prospect list for 2023 is the organization’s top international signing in 2021 and their second-youngest player in the US in 2022. 2B/SS Adari Grant’s results haven’t yet caught up with his promise. ($) https://t.co/zQzBjmDYOA pic.twitter.com/ahcqAZNxqs
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 5, 2022
Just want to say that I like the interplay of reporting between Brian and Blake. for me they just seem to work together really well. It’s entertaining reading and I look forward to it every day.
Mud, thank you for the kind words. Today, we discuss whether Patrick Romeri is a slow mover or not. One of us says yes, the other no.
The Cardinal Nation’s #STLCards Top 50 prospect countdown for 2023 reaches no. 35 with Patrick Romeri, an outfielder with great power potential but whose 2022 can be summarized as famine-feast-famine, with nothing in between. FREE report! https://t.co/Hiqi8YrbF9 pic.twitter.com/QmoIHV3fgM
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 6, 2022
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