June 28, 2020 at 6:53 pm #131756June 28, 2020 at 6:53 pm #131757June 28, 2020 at 7:09 pm #131761
Oviedo over Rondon?June 28, 2020 at 7:25 pm #131765
Yes, a tell is that Oviedo was still in Spring Camp after Rondon was sent down. But in reality, it doesn’t matter other than Oviedo is getting at least 11 days more of workouts. Both will almost certainly be in Springfield.
P.S. Having said that, the NRIs with St. Louis now certainly have a leg up in terms of being considered for St. Louis later in 2020. They must think Oviedo is ahead of Rondon right now. We will see how they both do in Springfield (if we get access and stats from the alternate training site).June 28, 2020 at 8:03 pm #131768Cardinals27ParticipantPaid - Annual
Ortega did have a good camp, but I would think the next man/catcher up would be Julio Rodriguez. Rodriguez was either hot or cold but he did finish at AA. Also, I would include Rondon and Oviedo. It will be interesting to see who the other 16 are. It would seem that the last 6-8 players will be top prospects, and really not expected to contribute to the big club, but needing reps badly. Rule 5 implications seem less important as they have months to make those decisions and as usual some will decide themselves.June 28, 2020 at 10:04 pm #131776CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
One name not mentioned even in the 60 man prediction was Kramer Robertson. He seems like a guy who could help sooner rather than later.June 28, 2020 at 10:13 pm #131778mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
With the kind of year Nogowski had in 2019, he should be trade bait, IMO. I don’t see any reason to think that 2019 was an outlier. It’s too bad for him that he won’t get much exposure to other teams this year.June 28, 2020 at 11:02 pm #131784
Robertson was behind Sosa, Mendoza and Schrock this spring and only got a pseudo-invite to big league camp when Miller was injured. While Schrock has moved ahead of Mendoza, it is hard to see where Robertson fits. For that reason of others ahead of him, he finished 2019 back at Springfield.
Nogowski has been a solid performer and deserves his place on the 44-man Summer Camp roster, but his trade value as a 27-year old first base-only player with superior defense but limited power may not be high.June 29, 2020 at 7:01 am #131787
Another thought on Oviedo… I noticed the P-D made a big deal about lumping Oviedo and Whitley together as high-potential relievers.
In terms of how they would be used by St. Louis this year, then yes, they would be relievers. But that is the case for every pitcher beyond the five in the rotation.
However, while Whitley has been a reliever his entire career, so has Oviedo been exclusively a starter. What I do not yet know is if the latter is making a permanent move to the pen or if this is just an accommodation for 2020.
Some guys, like Trevor Rosenthal, for example, never pitched a game of relief in the minors and made his transition in the majors. Others, like Carlos Martinez, spent a year in the pen because there was no room yet in the rotation for him.June 29, 2020 at 7:43 am #131790stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
The line in your article about Carlson will make for some interesting viewing at least for a week or so. It would seem to be a no brainer to wait the week and gain an extra year, although that’s not typically been the Cardinals M.O. through the years.June 29, 2020 at 7:58 am #131794
I believe the Cardinals will wait on Carlson. But they don’t have to declare it is service time-driven, even though that is clearly a benefit. They continue to say that O’Neill and Thomas deserve a chance, which to me is very understandable, and is not new. Certainly a reasonable chance is more than five games – for the two of them, as well as Fowler.
The lack of a real camp with external scrimmages also slows down the process of change. No preseason game results to start to base decisions on…
As I have said all along, Carlson’s time will come soon enough. If they get out of the gates smartly, some pressure will be off, but a July losing streak would cause all kinds of fan panic.June 29, 2020 at 8:24 am #131796CariocaCardinalParticipantPaid - Monthly
I dont see how Mendoza is considered ahead of Robertson unless they think a) Mendoza can show more power than he has in the past or b) He can transition to SS full time. .270 minor league hitters with no power normally dont have much of a future unless they can play a decent SS. Even then it is tough.June 29, 2020 at 8:49 am #131801UncleDennyParticipant
Don’t view Robertson as a prospectJune 29, 2020 at 8:58 am #131803stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
As I have said all along, Carlson’s time will come soon enough. If they get out of the gates smartly, some pressure will be off, but a July losing streak would cause all kinds of fan panic.
I’m not sure about panic, but this is certainly one year that no team can afford a cold streak.
Last year on June 1, most teams had played just shy of 60 games. The playoff teams would have been the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Rays and Rangers in the AL and Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Cubs in the NL. The Nats, Cards and As would all be on the outside looking in with records of 25-33, 29-29 and 30-29 despite rallying to win 90+ games.June 29, 2020 at 9:07 am #131806
I dont see how Mendoza is considered ahead of Robertson…
Simple. The organization’s own actions tell the story. One was invited to MLB spring training camp and the other was not (except to fill in). One finished last season at Memphis and the other was sent down to Springfield.June 29, 2020 at 9:22 am #13180914NyquisTParticipant
Getting the 44-man summer camp roster down to the opening day 30 looks to present some stiff competition for spots. The five young OFs (Carlson excluded) will need to fill 3 spots should the team go with four. IMO this is where the success or failure of the 2020 season will be determined. Those three that have the best camp will need to step up big time. Those that show the best offense will “go North”. May the best three win.June 29, 2020 at 9:34 am #131810gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
I am big on Oviedo. I have no problem with them putting him ahead of Rondon at this time.
Mo’s stated reason for holding off on naming the other 16 makes sense. If several off the 44 in St. Louis camp test positive he needs MLB ready players to be picked for the 16 instead of just highly rated prospects who have no chance of making it to St. Louis. Hopefully it won’t come to that though because those highly rated prospects need to be in Springfield getting their work in.June 29, 2020 at 9:48 am #131812
Ny, I can’t tell for sure if I agree or disagree with you. I don’t see the OF camp competition other than maybe the starter in left, with everything probably written in pencil all 60 games. To open the year, my 30-man prediction all along was four outfielders plus Ravelo (1B/OF). The four being Fowler, Bader, O’Neill and Thomas. As already noted many times, there are good reasons to wait on Carlson, with Dean and Williams long shots at best. (The latter two had already been sent down when spring camp 1.0 ended on March 12.)
Unless someone gets injured, I don’t see the OF situation changing just based on intra-team camp scrimmages. Bader and Fowler are going to start the season in the lineup. Do you see it differently, and if so, why?
P.S. As is almost always the case, I am talking about what I think the team will do. My personal preferences (whatever they may be) are irrelevant.June 29, 2020 at 11:54 pm #131845
Mark Saxon named five prospects he thinks can have “impactful debuts” for StL in 2020:
and NogowskiJune 30, 2020 at 9:18 am #131871Christopher JeskeParticipantPaid - Annual
Hi Brian, I agree with your analysis and this doesn’t change that, but re:
As already noted many times, there are good reasons to wait on Carlson, with Dean and Williams long shots at best. (The latter two had already been sent down when spring camp 1.0 ended on March 12.)
I’m pretty sure Dean and Williams were optioned a week or two after the spring schedule was cancelled. Their mlb.com transaction logs say March 19th. Probably the only reason Carlson wasn’t included with them is that he was a NRI and thus “reassigned” instead of optioned, which I don’t think is a recorded transaction.
Again, I agree with your analysis–and the transactions did happen later, so I draw the same conclusions–but Dean and Williams were still in camp and (I think) still playing most days when camp ended.June 30, 2020 at 9:55 am #131874
Thanks for the comments, Christopher. You are right. Dean and Williams were optioned out after camp ended. It was sloppy for me to go from memory rather than check. However, the NRIs were not reassigned afterward, primarily because it wouldn’t have cost the team anything to keep them. Having said that, if spring camp had continued to its regular end, I would bet my (small and variable) paycheck that Carlson would have remained until the very last cuts. We will never know for sure, however.
With the Summer Camp so short and the format restricted (no external games), my guess is that they will want to keep most all of the 44 around until the very end. A very different camp, for sure….June 30, 2020 at 9:58 am #131875
Some say O’Neill and Thomas deserve a chance. Why?
O’Neill has had 293 major league plate appearances and struck out 110 times. That’s a 37.5% rate. His OBP is .307.
In 2018, Thomas hit .260 at Springfield. At Memphis last season he hit .268.
Are we really resting some of our chances on these 2 players?June 30, 2020 at 10:06 am #131876
Simple. I will tell you why. “Some” equals “Mo” and he is in charge!
P.S. You really need to stop citing batting average alone as being so relevant. It is not how teams make decisions here in 2020.June 30, 2020 at 10:10 am #131877
Coincidentally, I was reading Derrick Goold’s chat from yesterday in another window and this section was right in front of my eyes.
“…Also, what has priority in the game has changed. Hitters aren’t chasing batting average as much as they are OPS. Pitchers don’t talk about a hitters hot zone in regards to his batting average — they want to avoid areas where that hitter does damage, so it’s slugging percentage. If the stats that are important change, then the style of game also changes to meet them. And that’s the crux of it really: The analytics revolution which was designed to find better ways to evaluate performance in the game has become the way the game is played…”June 30, 2020 at 11:05 am #131880
Very happy to use OPS, BW. Let’s take a look at Lane Thomas through the years (6 years in the minors), since Mo was so high on him at the WWU session you and I both attended.
Rookie level – .293/.378/.433/.811
A (-) .225/.257/.391/.648
A – .205/.315/.328/.643
A+ – .252/.311/.375/.693
AA – .260/.337/.487/.824
AAA – .270/.342/.472/.814
Do those minor league numbers look like something to get excited about? Especially since he regressed from 2018 to 2019? And he turns 25 in August?
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