StL 2024 Game #88 thread – Thursday, July 4 at Pirates

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  • #259081
    1toughdominican
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    Well J, according to the theorem you put forth, instead of awarding the Pirates a free runner at 2B with 0 outs in extras and the score of 3-1, it would have been advantageous for the Cardinals to have simply begun the inning by awarding the Pirates a complimentary run and starting the inning with the score being 3-2 with 1 out so that the pitcher or the IF’ers wouldn’t possibly be distracted…Right? We just disagree. It’s my view that runs are important in baseball in a twofold sense…It’s extremely important to score runs, and it’s equally as extremely important to prevent the opposition from scoring runs.

    #259082
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    I agree that the odds of losing the game by letting the run score are low, but they are not zero. Another example – guy on third, one out, 3-1 score. Next guys lines out to third – runners starts, then dives back to the base but the third baseman is able to tag the base, ending the game. Same situation, but no one on, 3-2 game. Guy lines out to third, two out. Next guys walks. Next guy homers, 4-3 home club walks it off.

    Not likely to happen, but not a zero chance of happening either. Always best to be alert and play the game with the goal of scoring runs on offense, and preventing them on defense if you have the chance to prevent them.

    #259084
    Jnevel
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    I agree BikeMike. There’s a very small chance that runner gets out on the basepaths. I guess all I’m saying is it isn’t worth getting worked up over. It barely changed any odds of winning. It’s probably not worth typing about so many times either! But heh – as fans we’ve got to have some good discussion. I appreciate your opinion. And you too 1TD.

    #259091
    bicyclemike
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    Paid - Annual

    Jnevel – I almost tacked on to my last post about this not being worth going in to so much detail on. 🙂

    It’s not like the infamous “Merle bonehead” play that ultimately cost the Giants a pennant.

    #259092
    Albert de Morcerf
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    ^^^^^

    Are you referring to the “Merkle Bonehead” play of 1908?

    Did you know that at the time Merkle was 19 and the youngest player in the NL?

    #259093
    1toughdominican
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    Yeah J, it worked out okay so I wasn’t at all spun up about it. One of the many reasons I enjoy baseball so much is because there seems to always be endless scenarios and possibilities that I can debate with fellow fans like yourself. And heck, if you and I were on the management or coaching staf, our favorite team would undoubtedly be in 1st place…Haha!

    #259094
    Jnevel
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    1TD – Mozeliak is retiring soon. Maybe you and I should co-apply?!!!

    #259096
    1toughdominican
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    Free

    Haha…I’m telling you, we’d have the fellas burning thru the NL…We could hire Shady as the hitting coach to get Arenado and Goldschmidt untracked! Just look at the miracle he’s worked with Burleson…

    #259106
    jj-cf-stl
    Participant

    J, OUR win expectency (WE) jumped 9% when the runner scored from second on a sac fly. From 80% to 89% (BR).

    Losing one of their three outs remaing was the biggest influence on the game at that time, so our WE jumped.

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