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Billy Jr. and Johnny both know that they have zero worries concerning the Japanese SP’er. They can easily and without risk create the illusion to Redbird fans that they put forth a genuine effort to sign the guy by offering up a dollar amount that would far surpass any other past effort to sign a player. They both know that they’ll be easily outbid by NY, LA, BOS, etc. so they won’t have to worry about being stuck with any large tab for a pitcher who has yet to record an out in the Big Leagues. Net bottom line is that they can look good without any risk of having to sign a check.
Excellent points, Mike. If Yamamoto is a 3-4 WAR pitcher (essentially a good #2 or sometimes #1) then such a big deal could still be worth it for the inroads into the market in Japan (and beyond). If the stuff translates even better than expecte and you get 35-40 WAR or so over a 8 year span then you’ve got a massive steal.
I will play the role of optimist this time. I really don’t have a problem with the moves the Cardinals have made. The ages of the pitchers don’t bother me much becasue most of them have a history of durability and eating innings and the obligations to Lynn and Gibson are minimal. The term “innings eater” shouldn’t have negative connotations. IMO in order to eat a lot of innings you have to stay in the game for at least six innings over 25-30 starts. To stay in the game for six innings that means you aren’t getting shelled each game and to make 25-30 starts means you are durable and reliable. Those are all good traits. Gray, by the way, is much more than an innings eater anyway. He just finished second in the ALCY for crying out loud.
Here are the innings pitched in 2023 by the projected rotation:
Mikolas- 201.1
Gibson- 192.0
Gray- 184.0
Lynn- 183.2
Matz-105.0The last time a team had four starters pitch at least 180 innings was the 2016 Cubs. Things worked out well for them. I am not saying our group is the equivalent of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, and Lackey. I am just saying when your starter answers the bell every fifth day and goes six innings it provides a very firm foundation for success, which was sorely lacking last year.
How good is it really when your pitcher is giving up 4 runs in those 6 innings? You now have a top of the rotation starter surrounded by #4 and #5 pitchers. This is not a postseason caliber rotation. Stop fooling yourselves.
On Yammy, he could blow out his shoulder, and pitchers are always a risky investment. But when you make financial decisions based on fear or greed, you often make poor decisions.
With this guy’s potential, don’t let fear sway you. Put a competitive bid out there, and hedge yourself to some degree with insurance.
The Cardinals refusal to take risks is what has led them to 2023.
I don’t think I agree with that. I think risks were not taken because the FO didn’t think any were necessary to field a competitive team.
pitchers are always a risky investment
They are. Signing one is laying down a bet. I am not averse to that, but hope BillMo will not lay down a bet the team can’t afford to lose.
I just read an interesting stat from a Bernie Mac column. The Cardinals havent had a single pitcher that has met the average strikeout rate in MLB. That’s crazy. Some teams have 4 or 3 guys who do that. Probably why we give up so many hits. While it’s def better to give up singles n doubles than homers usually, you don’t want to give up too many. Gray should do a little bit better in that regard
. Though he’s not super fast, he does have swing n miss stuffYou don’t have to strike people out in order to get people out.
The pitching staff was doing just fine, pretty much every year, until Mike Maddux left. I mean, until Marmol drove Mike Maddux away. (Or it’s just a coincidence that the Redbird hitting and pitching coaches both quit after one season under the Boy Genius manager.)
Anyway, thanks BikeMike for your earlier post pointing out the mutually advantageous aspects of a Yoshi Yamamoto signing. I predict that in 2024 he’ll cost only slightly more than the combo of Lynn & Gibson while producing at least 3 WAR more than the two of them combined.
I know I yammer on about Yamamoto, but get this: he’s won three straight Japanese MVP Awards — not just their version of the Cy Young, but MVP — and he’s younger than Zach Thompson and Lars Nootbaar and Jordan Hicks and Luken Baker and Brendan Donovan. He’s 3+ years younger than Edman & Helsley & Knizner. His combo of tender age and lengthy established track record of exceptional efficiency/durability defies description. But here’s just one snippet: he’s been a full-time starter since turning 20, and every single season he’s averaged more than 7 innings per start.
I apologize. I know, it’s a Sonny Gray thread. And there’s nothing wrong with signing Sonny Gray, if you’re looking to simply replace the performance of Jordan Montgomery. But Gray needed to be the second-best pitcher the Birds acquired this winter. Not the best-by-far, which obviously appears to be the case.
MLB Trade Rumors provides more details on Gray and Gibson contracts. Key takeaway, Gray is only getting $10M for 2024 as the deal is heavily back-loaded.
Bob I didn’t say you have to strike out batters to get them out but if you don’t strike out people you are going to give up more hits generally speaking. The more hits you give up, possible more runs you give up, you also tend to throw more pitches which is why a lot of times our guys go 5 innings or less. Plus more pitches more chances of health issues.
Interesting that Gray is only getting 10 million in 24. Means they may have more money to throw at the bullpen. They get rid of Matz and O’Neill and that’s more.
You don’t have to strike people out in order to get people out.
If you have Walker in right and are constantly churning your defensive alignment, you kind of do need to strike people out. Besides, somebody in a lab coat decided pitch to contact is bad, so everybody piled on that bandwagon.
As to Gray, there is no valid reason to be critical of signing the guy who just came in second in the Cy Young vote. And we’re not going to be paying him $30 Million when he’s 40.
The backloading of the Gray contract is huge, and it makes the rotation look much better now. Instead of having roughly $3 million left to spend, the Cardinals have roughly $18 million.
That is enough to sign one of Ryu, Clevinger, Lugo, Wacha or Lorenzen. Or, it gets them substantially closer to being able to afford Jordan Montgomery, which would obviously be a huge leap forward for the rotation.
Also gives them flexibility to spend that money on free agent relievers (Aroldis Chapman, Matt Moore, Hector Neris, etc).
It’s not piling on a bandwagon far as pitching to contact. You can pitch to contact to a certain point but still get strikeouts if you can hit your spots as well as have stuff that while not that fast, can still get guys to miss it or take it for strikes. If guys are hitting the ball hard instead of just getting a piece is when you have issues. It’s also a factor if your defense isn’t great. I would consider our defense average. Again it also leads to more pitches which leads to less innings.
Backloading Sonny by 15mil does help the Goldschmidt win now window.
Mo now has the flexibility to absorb salary in trade if he chooses to.
“If guys are hitting the ball hard instead of just getting a piece is when you have issues.”
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MLB had a 39.5% hard hit % during 2023.
STL had a 41.0% (5th highest) with teams ranging from 41.5% down to 37%.2023 hard hit% allowed
50.0 Woodford
46.2 Gallegos
45.4 Hudson
45.4 Rom
44.5 Gibson
43.9 Thompson
43.0 Mikolas
42.7 Liberatore
41.8 Pallante
39.5 MLB avg
39.5 Helsley
39.5 Lynn
39.3 Stratton
39.2 Gray
38.8 Wainwright
38.7 Romeo
38.4 Flaherty
38.1 Montgomery
38.0 Matz
37.0 KingRe YY : 9/250mil to 12/350mil (est.)
If 30mil (AAV) gets it done, I would be looking at Goldschmidts’ current salary structure (26mil AAV), to cover the majority of YY’s salary, starting in 2025.
If YY defers 15mil as Gray did, YY’s 2024 is covered short term, and long term.
The backloading of Gray’s contract is massive news. It means that the Cardinals are in win now mode and it means there will be more acquisitions this winter, possibly very significant acquisitions. I think anyone is still in play.
Now it will not be fun to pay Gray $35M in 2026 but at least it appears they are trying to build a winner in 2024. I estimate that the Cardinals have at least $20M more to spend on the 2024 team. The next big contract could also be backloaded.
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