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4:35pm: The Cards have now officially announced the deal, notably adding that there’s a club option for 2027. The value of that option is not publicly known at this time.
Grays stats last year in 32 starts he gave up more than 3 earned runs only 3 times, he led the AL in FIP and HR allowed per9….3 years $75 million
2023 Cardinal starters
Mikolas had 35 starts gave up more than 3 earned runs in 13 of them
Matz had 17 starts gave up more than 3 earned runs in 6 of them
Flaherty had 27 starts gave up more than 3 earned in 9 gamesOther free agents
Montgomery 32 starts gave up more than 3 earned runs in 6 of them
Snell had 32 starts gave up more than 3 earned runs in 2 of them
Nola had 32 starts gave up more than 3 earned runs in 15 of them…7 years $172 million
Stroman 25 starts gave up more than3 earned runs in 7 of them
Giolito 32 starts gave up more than 3 earned in 12 of themAlready Signed
Gibson 33 starts gave up more than 3 earned in 11 of them…..1 year $12 million
Lynn 32 starts gave up more than 3 earned in 15 of them…..1 year $10 million30 million option or 5 million buyout in year 37 of the deal, lol. And it was asked why people have been negative about these “deals” the Cardinals have reached with these three geriatric pitchers. None if this is good. None of it.
Overall positive move for the Cards, but it’s another thirty-something pitcher on the back end of their career. He needs to stay healthy and have motivation to win for this to work out. Optimistic for next year, but beyond that, the risks increase dramatically. Mikolas is not spring chicken either. I’d like to see MO’s strategic plan to shore up the rotation for the next five years. Not sure that exists.
I’d like to see MO’s strategic plan to shore up the rotation for the next five years.
I’m sure the plan is to develop much of the rotation in house. I also feel sure Mo has BDW convinced it will happen.
I don’t blame gray for getting a no trade clause. This will probably be his last contract,I doubt he plays past it. I’m going to be optimistic on him.
I’ll reserve any accolades or criticisms of these signings until I see the Cardinal’s W/L record at the end of May, but it’ll be interesting to see how a 37 year old wannabe Big League manager will handle and manipulate a 5 man rotation consisting of SP’ers who, with the exception of Matz, are essentially the same age as the guy walking out to take the baseball from their hand. This could get to be quite a bit out of the ordinary to say the least.
1TD Matz will be 33 next season. He’s no spring chicken either. They better load up on the advil. They’re gonna need it.
Don’t lose sight that the minimum commitment is three years, $75 million. It only goes to $100 million if they want him for a fourth year.
Sonny said he “wanted to be a Cardinal”, per a quote that came across my tablet. I would be too for 75 million clams over the next three years.
But all cynicism aside, it is the holiday season and I am going to look at this from a glass-half-full perspective. If he is healthy, he will keep us in ball games that we will win many times. This will help create a positive vibe, and synergistically keep the club in a winning mindset where the next starter wants to match it.
None of these moves are what I would have done. I would have shook things up and dealt away the aging stars in efforts to bring young power arms, and athletic position players to go with what we have. Yeah, we probably lose for a couple of years or more, but I would be looking to build a powerhouse around the century mark of our first title, 2026.
But hey, DeWitt is getting up there and Mo will probably want to retire in the next few years. They are working to build a winner in the next season or two, then shift to younger guys. Maybe that will turn out to be the ideal mix and a perfect plan. We will see.
Yeah, TexCard, that’s kind of what I was driving at. Matz is the defacto Baby LeRoy of the bunch and he’s only 4 years younger than the guy they call the field manager of this team. I still can’t recall a Cardinal rotation that didn’t include a solitary member who was still in his 20’s.
The Cardinals have had kind of a funny approach these last few years – go with youth in the manager, and go with age in the starting rotation.
If this keeps up we may need to call our the club the “Graybirds” instead of the “Redbirds”. Which, with our latest acquisition works in multiple ways.
Haha!…Yeah, bikemike, not that there’s anything wrong with having a rotation consisting of guys who were just a hair past 30 years old. I’d settle for the following 5…
Ryan
Niekro
Perry
Hough
WilhelmThose 5 guys could probably get a team into the post-season as a WC with the right manager and pitching coach…
I think I’m coming around more to the Gray signing. He’s probably good for 8-10 WAR over the next three years, and that would make him a #2-3 for us at worst. It’s only money, so I’m not underwhelmed anyway. I think I’m less happy with the Lynn and Gibson signings, unless they are willing to go get another arm on the market. Would Mikolas have some value as an innings eater in a trade if they were to get Cease, Bieber or someone of that ilk? I’m not sure, but I doubt Miles goes anywhere.
Going to be real interesting to see how much Yamamoto gets I have seen anywhere from $200 million up to $280 million over the length of his contract….plus the posting fee to Orix
“Going to be real interesting to see how much Yamamoto gets; I have seen anywhere from $200 million up to $280 million over the length of his contract….plus the posting fee to Orix.”
If I were the Redbird front office I’d start at $250M for 9 years and be prepared to go as high as $350 for 12 seasons. And I’d offer more than that if necessary, provided Yamamoto would agree to significant deferrals a la the big Scherzer contract of nearly a decade ago. It is entirely possible that Yoshi Yamamoto is already the best pitcher on the planet and has been for the past three years — he’s 25 and his worst ERA since turning 22 is 1.68. In the season just ended it was a Gibsonesque 1.16.
Even if Yamamoto were signed for a dozen years, he’d be no older when that contract runs out than Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson are right now. Given his age & talent & track record of durability, I daresay there hasn’t been an opportunity for a free agent pitcher like this since Marvin Miller took the Union reins. Given any inflation at all over the next 8-10 years, a 9/250 signing could prove a bargain if YY stays generally healthy.
I have no problem with Gray on a 4 year deal. I don’t like giving up our 2nd pick, though. I also want another top pitcher. I know the Cardinals are just positioning the team for the prospects to take over in a year or 2. However, they would be better off with 2 top of the rotation pitchers to anchor the staff and start filing in the prospects next year. Keep the pressure to perform off of them and figure out exactly who can be a top starter.
But all cynicism aside, it is the holiday season and I am going to look at this from a glass-half-full perspective.
I’m exactly where you are. Baseball is a game of patience, and I would be in favor of a longer rebuild if it meant strenghthing the organization for the long haul. But that’s not what they’re going to do. So I’m not going to whine. The rotation on paper is significantly better and we haven’t given up anything but $ and a draft choice. Spend a few more bucks and trade from your positional redundancy to improve your bullpen. You are going to need it. If everything clicks make a move at the trade deadline for a stronger front of the rotation guy.
More than anything, the Cards need some starter…any starter…to emerge from the upper minors log jam and grab a spot in the rotation. It’s been too long since we were able to count on any arm from within to provide something like average production for a whole season (probably not since Flaherty a couple years ago).
Other than Goldschmidt and Arenado, this team is very young. There are no positions that could even be challenged except left field. Hold onto the pitchers, but shop the highly talented position players in our top 20. There’s no place to put them in St. Louis. We could stand an upgrade in left field, but that’s not to say that Burleson is inadequate. He’s always been an exceptional hitter and his defense is okay.
The club option is actually $30M with a $5M buyout. The buyout amount is guaranteed so if the option is picked up it becomes $30M.
If I were the Redbird front office I’d start at $250M for 9 years and be prepared to go as high as $350 for 12 seasons.
Given the Cardinals dire need for a rotation ace, and the fact that a pitcher like Yamamoto will generate tremendous residual revenues, the Cardinals simply must be a player in this sweepstakes. He is one of those guys similar to Ohtani, who can be an investment more than an expense.
Then you have the intangible that one of Yamamoto’s best friends is on our roster right now, the oddly named Lars Nootbaar.
Whatever you commit to Yamamoto in salary, you will see much of it come back in tickets sales, both home and road, merchandise sales, and other “wow” factor benefits. And to top it off, if we are a powerful team, and go far in the post season with Yamamoto as the ace, the franchise value will jump. That is more of a balance sheet increase than cash dollars in the P&L, but it is still very real value and something DeWitt no doubt understands. When a guy like that comes along, a team like the Cardinals simply have to be doing all they can to get him.
We may not be able to land him given the enormous draw the big markets will have. But we have to be a player in the negotiations and present what would be easily the biggest contract offer in franchise history.
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