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For anyone that wants to keep him or JoJo through the deadline, there is a big issue called an injury, or a decline, especially on a losing team.
If they would’ve traded Helsley last winter, they would’ve gotten a heck of a lot more back than they did. Even though in the end, it did seem the Cardinals won that one based on how he performed in Queens.
This is a chip you can’t risk that long on and take that risk nor is JoJo.
It’s not that huge of a risk. Donovan is as steady as it gets and he’s already been banged up various times in his career. He’s about as likely to gain value in the first half as he is to lose value.
On the Romero front, I generally agree. He has been good but relievers are volatile. He probably gets the same return now as the deadline, and that would require him being healthy and good. Anything less on either front finished the return. Either way, he’s probably only bringing a 40/45 prospect back on his own.
JJ, risk factor….. Get what you can get while you still have multiple options.
See: Edman for Fedde basically, did we learn zilch?!?
Cfict, you make a strong case to move Donny, yet you put an ultimatum date on it, where CB could wind up striking out. It takes two. The leverage could now be gone, with no trade, caused by the self-imposed deadline that impatiently stopped listening.
CB is on a solid run so far. TBD.
I think the Cardinals definitely want to trade Donovan but getting true value is proving to be tricky.
Why? Because I think the CBA fiasco is starting to loom large. The Cardinals are valuing Donovan as a player with two years of control but the trade partner might be concerned that if there is a work stoppage they won’t get Donovan for two full years so they might be valuing him as a player with 1 or 1.5 years of control.
One could provide a dozen examples of just about any type of trade scenario working out, just like you could find a dozen examples of a trade scenario not working out. My hope is that the player dev and scouting guys are improved/improving to the point where we make the right call far more often than we have in the last ten years. Mo and company moved the wrong guy often enough that they simply stopped taking any risk in moving guys until they were so far past their peak value that it was absurd.
It’s ok to trade a guy a little too late here or there, but knowing we probably could have traded for Juan Soto for some combo of Dylan Carlson, Jordan Walker, Tink Hence, Masyn Winn, and Matt Liberatore, only one of which has turned into a good player. That 2022 team with Goldy, Soto, Arenado and Albert could have done some damage.
It’s not that huge of a risk. Donovan is as steady as it gets and he’s already been banged up various times in his career. He’s about as likely to gain value in the first half as he is to lose value.
In his four years with the Cardinals, Brendan Donovan has not played in 156 games, nearly the equivalent of one entire season.
That hurts Donovan’s trade value.
If there is a work stoppage, none of the arb players will accumulate service time.
True but the acquiring team is expecting to get X amount of WAR out of Donnie. That can’t happen if they don’t have him for the full two years.
I guess that is true unless service time turns into a negotiating point in the CBA. Just another unknown for the acquiring team to think about.
55, most rookies aren’t plug and play.
Teams considering acquiring two seasons of Donny, should weigh his most recent two seasons heaviest, toward his next two seasons expected value.
In 1167 PA’s during 2024-2025, Donny was a 3.05fwar/583(PA’s). Age related decline for those who think it applies.
GScott has a good point regarding negotiating the service time. If I recall, 2020 counted as a full season during the “insert what you call it” season.
Unless someone is going to have to be added before the 2026 rule 5 date, any intelligent team that is rebuilding won’t call that player up. Aka Doyle.
Not for being cheap or manipulating Service time, just because if they are on the 40 Man roster already, they won’t be able to even play in the minors and build up innings, work on certain things, etc.There’s a grand canyon between “off the 40man”, and “on the 26man” drawing service time. It can’t be both at once.
GS, we have a CBA. Any future changes affects all players from all clubs.
Does everyone lose a season of their arb guys like your Donovan scenario? Will mlb also lose a season on their pre-arb guys? What about FA’s like Matz signing a 2yr deal? Is it really a one yr deal?
Chasing those scenarios now, seems fruitless. TBD.
JJ, What I meant was that if, for example, Josh Baez, he’s on the 40 man and likely won’t be on this 26 man in 2026, but he won’t even be able to play in Memphis during the lockout.
Aka, Doyle would not be allowed to pitch in Memphis in 2027 and build up innings if he is on the 40 man.How you are connecting those non-40man considerations to service time, is flawed. We have a CBA, and a season ahead of us. You are not rained out until it rains.
Donovan for….
JJ, I think what Chitown is getting at is that a player not on the 40 man could still play in minor league games during a MLB work stoppage. That is a separate issue than service time.
As for the service time issue, anything can be negotiated in a CBA. The questions you asked in reply#299591 are probably the same questions that an acquiring team is asking as they ponder the true value of Donnie.
What applies to Donny, applies to the league. We have many 0- 6 players to lose a season of, if your scenario happens next winter, just like every club.
Mlb may already consider two seasons of control, a one yr rental, but I’m not buying it. Show-Me.
GS, are the players wanting to reduce FA eligibility to 5.000 seasons? Is this where this scenario comes from?
GS, are the players wanting to reduce FA eligibility to 5.000 seasons? Is this where this scenario comes from?
I don’t know if the players have publicly outlined any specific talking points except for their opposition to a salary cap.
I am just saying that if there is a work stoppage in 2027 we currently don’t know how that missed service time will be calculated or accounted for, which could potentially impact a player’s current trade value. If I were the Giants or Mariners or whoever is in on Donnie I would be making that point to the Cardinals, which may explain why the trade hasn’t happened yet.
Pugs, looks like the Phillies could use a speedy Church in CF to keep “pace”! And maybe a backup C that’s a Crooks….
Ive thought that was a good partner on those two since day 1
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