Outfield Dilemma …

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  • #119257
    AvatarChristopher Jeske
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    Thanks for sharing that, Bob. I’m surprised that O’Neill is that low compared to the others, but 2.4 WAR/600 PA is nothing to sneeze at either.

    Regarding Carlson, I think you are spot on. His ridiculous KATOH? number is driven in large part due to his age relative to level. It makes sense that the same thing would work against him in the next 2 year Davenport mean projection.

    Also, it’s nice to see Williams get a good rate projection, though I’m assuming the actual projection puts him far below the prorated 600 PA/yr. I can’t wait to see what he does this year, even if it’s mostly in AAA.

    #119260
    AvatarGameCard
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    I like WAR…I do not like projections.

    #120459
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    WAR does include a playing time component called replacement. Players receive a run value based on the amount of their playing time that season. If you believe a player is worthy of his playing time, then his replacement runs applied to his WAR, should hold value with you. Meaning his playing time holds more field value than a minor league replacement player (young bench player) that he is playing ahead of.

    If you believe that player is playing poorly, but continues to play due to his salary, then where is his field value above a replacement minor leaguer? For me, “replacement runs” misrepresents the WAR totals of high salaried players that continue to play poorly, versus young bench players who could possibly have better field value and a higher WAR, had they been given the playing time.

    My intent is not to pick on Dexter specifically, but he is the perfect example in our outfield. Why should we value his playing time runs, of his WAR, versus another player we would prefer to get his playing time?

    So I’ll eliminate every stl outfielders playing time runs, and compare their other WAR run components. Their offensive and defensive runs, per fWAR, AS CARDINALS only.

    Dexter: +4.8 OFF runs, -19.2 DEF runs, 1399 PA’s (-6.18 OFF/DEF runs per 600 PA’s)
    where is his on field value? If you add in his total playing time runs of +43.3, he goes from a negative fWAR to a positive fWAR.

    Jose Martinez: +33.8 OFF runs, -29.2 DEF runs, 1288 PA’s (+2.14 OFF/DEF runs per 600 PA’s)
    his D almost cancels out his bat, no surprise here.

    Ozuna: +18.6 OFF runs, -2.6 DEF runs, 1177 PA’s (+8.16 OFF/DEF runs per 600 PA’s)
    positive field value deserves a Q-offer and similar contract

    O’Neill: +3.3 OFF runs, +0.8 DEF runs, 293 PA’s (+8.40 OFF/DEF runs per 600 PA’s)
    small sample size. first player listed with both +OFF and +DEF runs.

    Bader: +0.1 OFF runs, +25.2 DEF runs, 925 PA’s (+16.41 OFF/DEF runs per 600 PA’s)
    no surprise here.

    This comparison has players in every stage of mlb careers, from rooks breaking in, to vets tailing off. We can only estimate their future value individually. Lane Thomas’s sample is so small I didn’t include it, but he did have positive runs on both OFF and DEF.

    I like WAR, but tend to concentrate more on the field values than the playing time component. It wouldn’t surprise me if the stl analytics department deals strictly with the field value components. So did we lose field value by letting Ozuna walk and trading away Jose?

    #120465
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Please notify me when a WAR is physically proven. Then maybe we can move on to Quality Starts but that is a lot simpler than a ton of acronyms that I don’t have a clue as to meaning. My stat: See ball. Hit ball. Run like hell.

    #120466
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    Please notify me when a WAR is physically proven. Then maybe we can move on to Quality Starts but that is a lot simpler than a ton of acronyms that I don’t have a clue as to meaning. My stat: See ball. Hit ball. Run like hell.

    WAR is far less subjective than “see ball, hit ball, run like hell.” Not sure what point you are trying to prove. WAR is a pretty good predictor of value – the best we have, actually. There are many brands, but they tend to stack rank players in a way that most would agree is a fair overall assessment.

    It isn’t perfect, so asking it to be is foolishness. It isn’t hard to understand if you’d spend just a little time reading.

    I’ll get off your lawn now.

    #120472
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    ATSOTC. My problem with WAR in specific and SABRmetrics in general is that a lot of that stuff is based on ‘estimates.’ I happen to favor stats based on what has happened not on some forumula that predicts what ‘may’ happen. WAR is so designed that it can NEVER be proven. That is why I rely on the simple stats like batting average, ERA, wins/losses because they are based on actual achievements. Even batting average can be tricky because at the start of the season it can make huge ups and downs but near the end of the season it moves only slowly because of the increase in season plate appearances. But we all have our opinions and I am not a person who likes the ‘modern math’ or whatever they are calling saber(sabr)metrics these days. But I fully understand why so many younger people love and understand them. I just don’t have the patience to delve into the ins and outs of those numbers.

    #120474
    Avataratripleshyofthecycle
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    That was just the long way of saying, “Get off my lawn!”. 😉

    The fact that you don’t like them doesn’t make them bad, though. I’m guessing WAR rankings of players would line up better with your ranking of how good guys are than any of your counting stats. And that is what WAR is designed to do. BA isn’t designed to show player value. Neither is a P’s W/L record. Nor is ERA. Those are counting stats that tell you very little. A guy can give up 27 105MPH line drives and throw a perfect game (get a win and have a 0 ERA for the game). That doesn’t mean he pitched well. After two at bats, two guys can both have a batting average of 1.000, but if one guy got sawed off and legged out a single because the fielders were dodging wood pieces, he obviously wasn’t as successful as the guy who homered on the next pitch.

    You don’t have to like it. You don’t have to understand it. You have a right to your opinion. But when you insult a stat that you don’t understand it says more about you than the stat. Keep that in mind.

    #120489
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    mm, thank you for the “young” reference. My five grandchildren also thank you.

    btw, BA still doesn’t know the difference between a HR and a single, and never will. If that’s all you want baseball numbers to tell you, I’m fine with that. Just don’t ask me to believe Pete Alonso and Lorenzo Cain are equals in the batters box because they had the same BA in 2019.

    #120514
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    <But when you insult a stat that you don’t understand it says more about you than the stat. Keep that in mind.>

    Insult a stat….LOL If that’s what you want to call it, okay by me but I was saying I thought it was sort of useless. You say it is to line up how people rank. Maybe so but I don’t need another bunch of people to tell me that, I can see it with my own eyes and, let’s face it, I am the only person I have to satisfy.

    No need to keep pressing on this. Some of us live and die by what others decide to rank players. I am not deep enough into the game I guess to much care about what all 30 teams and their 1200 players are doing – just mine and probably my current division opponents. Opinions here are about like politics – you are never going to change a person from one point of view to another if they are pretty well set in their ways. I plead guilty to being set in my ways but I surely don’t object to others being set in different ways. Have a good tomorrow.

    #120518
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    I love WAR for comparing players and used it all the time. But for a season or career, you can use the old BA-HR-RBI numbers and come pretty close to knowing who had the higher WAR, for offense that is.

    #120590
    Avatar1982 willie
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    the problem with war is it over complicates something fairly easy to see by basic stats and other factors. analytics say its better to swing for the fences and quite possibly strike out as opposed to choking up and putting ball in play. but it isn’t reality. sure you could hit into a double play but your more than likely not going to. you put the ball in play, lots of things can happen. you strike out, not much else can happen unless the catcher misses the ball. lots of possibilities vs that one thing. easy to see which is better.

    #120592
    Avatarbccran
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    Need some help:

    Bader in MLB –
    .236/.320/.393/.713
    At AAA –
    .275/.345/.465/.810

    O’Neill in MLB –
    .258/.307/.454/.761
    At AAA –
    .267/.339/.554/.893

    Thomas at AAA –
    .270/.342/.472/.814

    Williams at AAA –
    .271/.333/.423/.756

    Need help in getting excited about our future OF, with the exception of Carlson.

    #120597
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    willie, all contact is not equal. Kozma has a better career contact rate than DeJong, by 7%, but who wants Pete back?
    Of our starting eight last season, Ozuna had the worst contact rate and Molina tied for the highest. You want Yadi batting cleanup next season because he makes contact?

    Different players, different lineup roles, one size does not fit all.

    #120616
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    bcc, I know the focus is on our young outfielders, especially after Ozuna turned down our offer and took Atl’s, but my major concern is Carpenter and Fowler. If they can’t live up to their contracts Edman plays more on the infield, than outfield. I’d much rather have Edman, O’Neill and Bader playing LF and CF with Matt and Dexter as full time and productive.

    2019 was injury riddled for O’Neill. With good health I don’t see why his 2018 isn’t a solid LF’r.

    #120623
    Avatarbccran
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    Here’s the dilemma, at least as I see it –

    In 2019, here displayed is the minor league BA, OBP, and OPS of all of our minor league outfielders –

    Thomas – .261/.347/.807
    Williams- .296/.374/.858
    Carlson – .292/.367/.909
    Dean – .337/.401/1.036

    Capel – .248/.294/.686
    Mieses – .233/.302/.742

    Hurst – .217/.287/.586
    Pinder – .195/.300/.560
    Toerner – .253/.374/.752
    Nootbaar – .264/.349/.752
    Denton – .198/.259/.540
    Plummer .176/.312/.606

    Riley – .234/.316/.620
    Cedeno – .270/.311/.707
    Ynfante – .208/.279/.542
    Machado – .287/.333/.690
    Benson – .150/.208/.471

    Vinsky – .278/.338/.711
    Espinal – .267/.329/.734
    Fuller – .230/.343/.708
    Warner – .248/.368/.819

    Soler – .224/.302/.596/
    Del Rio – .216/.295/.631
    Fletcher – .244/.291/.666
    Garcia – .254/.299/.655
    Torres – .242/.337/.747

    Montano – .185/.261/.561
    Romeri – .246/.346/.809
    Burgos – .316/.420/.999
    Jiminez – .289/.408/.845
    Delos – .167/.265/.432

    Some call it a donut hole, and at WWU Gary Laroque called it a gap. It may be more like falling off a cliff after Memphis, as least as outfielders in our system go. Maybe some higher ceiling guys like Torres and Fletcher will pick it up in 2020. Sure hope so.

    #122267
    kscardfankscardfan
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    Keep hearing about all the depth in this OF. You could say that about all Teams in MLB. Depth of above avg talent though is a different story. I see all of the Cardinals Top 10 Of’s at average to below average. Carlson may be above. Hasn’t proven anything yet. A move hopefully is coming. But this OF minus Ozuna is definitely not better. I don’t see Bader getting better. O’Neill the same. Though I see him passing up Bader. Fowler isn’t going to improve with age. I throw Carlson and Thomas in there and see if one or both step up. But w/out a move I don’t see this Team getting there.

    #122272
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Bader was a 3.6 WAR player per 600 pa last year (and higher in 2018.) If O’Neill exceeds that then we will be in great shape.

    I think Dean will surprise but cant really support that statistically.

    #122421
    Avatarbccran
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    Ludwick did well. Jose Martinez did well. Why not the guy we just picked up who has slashed .331/.398/.546/.944 at AAA and is only 26 years old.

    #122437
    Avatar1982 willie
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    jj-cf-stl, well it might be better to have kozma or someone like him back. Molina isn’t really a power hitter so having him hit cleanup isn’t very wise. i just know the 80s cardinals were very successful with a lot of single hitters, great defense, and a lot of speed. yea i know they played on astroturf but that ball played well on the road as well. in this world of analytics, those guys are more available as well and for generally less money. you know what those guys that strike out a lot in the season do in the playoffs. they strike out even more cause they are facing generally better pitching. all you need is one , maybe two homerun hitters in a line up if the other guys can hit for contact, hit for situation, and run effectively. unless your pitching sucks, but you are probably toast no matter what then.

    #122620
    Avatarbccran
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    Willie – I find it hard to read your posts. Would it be possible to start your sentences with words that are capitalized? Thanks very much.

    #122646
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #122676
    Avatarbccran
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    Fine to mix and match, but we have to hope that several guys rise to their full potential, and sooner than later. Fowler will be gone after 2021 (or sooner). It’s pretty much accepted that Carlson will hold down a corner spot in the future. That means 2 among Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, and Williams have to rise to the occasion. Fletcher and
    Torres maybe downstream.

    #122849
    Avatar1982 willie
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    Well apparently Mo is thinking to give oneil and Thomas the shot at left field. makes sense we will see. this is probably oneils chance to win it or be ready to move on.

    #122850
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    I might be in the minority here, but I think centerfield should be fully open to competition as well. We all know Bader is an elite glove, but the lineup does not have the luxury of supporting a terrible bat.

    #122891
    Avatarbccran
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    If Bader performs offensively anywhere near his 2019 production, he’ll probably become a late inning defensive replacement.

    The thing I don’t understand is how he can have such a high K rate and not be a true power hitter. Does he like the glory of homers as much as he likes the glory of leaving his feet to make a catch in CF?

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