Matt Carpenter

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  • #103351
    stlcard25
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    Carpenter got his extension for what he has done in the past instead of what he is going to do in the future, which is not what good analytical front offices are supposed to do.

    The best thing to do would be make him a bench bat the rest of the season then see if he can regroup next spring. We have a chance to win the freaking division. Loyalty to the fans should be more important than loyalty to the veteran players. Carp is getting paid either way.

    I partially agree with you. By rule, all veteran contracts are done because of what players have done before. But they also must account for expected future production. Carp was coming off a season where he had gotten MVP votes. His career offensive numbers have been steady and solid to good every year. He was streaky last year but there’s not a logical sounding argument that anyone could have expected this kind of drop off. The Cards were 2-3 years away from one of the ballyhooed trio of Gorman, Montero and Nunez being ready to take over at 3B long term, and with free agency the only other option, they surely felt that signing Carp to an extension was a risk worth taking. If it worked out, and there was almost no reason to believe not…then you’ve got a 3-4 WAR 3B locked up until you’re ready to move on to a star young player. So far it has not, but it doesn’t mean he’s toast forever.

    That said, he should be sitting now. Edman is not a 3B long term but he can fill in for now. Carp pinch hits unless he starts popping dingers in spot starts and pinch hit appearances.

    #103352
    Minuteman3
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    What rule requires all veteran contracts to be done because of what players have done before? In arbitration years, players can cite the reasons they believe they are worth their asking price and if they don’t get it out of hand the case goes to an arbitrator who hears both sides and decides which one to honor. If a player has a great previous record that is what will get him a good new contract or extension on his old one.

    Carp was #9 on the MVP list last season – far down from the top of the list. He played 2 1/2 good months and pretty much bombed out the rest of the time. He had everybody convinced that he was the only answer to bat leadoff despite being very slow running and being more of a guy who milked for walks. True, he was a nice hitter in previous seasons until he himself announced that he was going to become an aggressive hitter. That is when he went into this launch angle BS which even worked for awhile until he found out it didn’t any longer. He has never really found an effective way of not hitting into the shift. He used to be lauded over and over about his supposed ‘good eye’ which he evidently came to believe was superior to the umpire’s. Now he seems to be looking back at the umpire instead of ahead for the ball. To say he is in a funk is no lie. He knows it. We know it. Baseball knows it. The only question is how to deal with it. So far, that answer remains elusive but continuing to give him a chance to fail is not good policy for the fans or the team.

    #103353
    stlcard25
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    What rule requires all veteran contracts to be done because of what players have done before?

    Uh, the free market?? If a player was no good before, you’re not going to sign him for the future or you’re going to pay him less. If he’s been good, you will pay him more. Nothing too crazy. Fans of our team act like the guy has been a below average hitter for years and it was a stunner that he would ever be signed. Revisionist history, of course.

    Is 9th out of at least 375 players to play in the NL last year really “pretty far down the list”…? Again, I get that some people don’t like his style of play (a couple people here would call a .300 hitter who hits nothing but singles and never walks or strikes out the best player on the team) but he’s been one of the Cards’ best players for 6 years in a row. This is an off year and I’ve said that I’m in favor of his benching but people here have gone all breathy and hyperbolic over it like it’s obvious to anyone that he was going to flame out this year.

    #103354
    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Carp was #9 on the MVP list last season – far down from the top of the list.

    What a loser!

    He played 2 1/2 good months and pretty much bombed out the rest of the time.

    At least you didn’t say one month, I guess. But he hit really well for about a 16 week stretch last summer. That’s more than 2.5 months no matter how you want to slice it.

    #103356
    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Also, don’t misinterpret my defense of Carpenter’s past for an endorsement of his future. I believe that Tommy Edman should be the primary 3B going forward (until/unless he stops hitting entirely). He probably shouldn’t be hitting 2nd, though. That should be Wong until he stops hitting.

    #103363
    gscottar
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    I wonder why no one will pay Moustakas based on his past? Everyone assumes he is falling off of a cliff yet he continues to put up huge numbers on relatively small one year contracts.

    #103366
    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Years Moustakas has been better than Matt Carpenter: 2012 and 2019.
    Total WAR by each from 2012 to present: 15.9 and 29

    Probably not the best comp.

    #103372
    stlcard25
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    I wonder why no one will pay Moustakas based on his past? Everyone assumes he is falling off of a cliff yet he continues to put up huge numbers on relatively small one year contracts.

    The Brewers were smart. They took a guy who was basically average (hence why no one would give him a long term deal) and put him in about the best place he could be as a lefty slugger. He’s done well, to his credit, and it has worked out for Milwaukee.

    He’s not even in the same league as Matt Carpenter over their careers though.

    #103392
    mudville
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    Does anybody know what’s really wrong with Matt Carpenter? Is it no salsa, or personal problems, or physical issue, or something else? This not a slump.

    #103394
    Brian Walton
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    #103397
    Euro Dandy
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    Does anybody know what’s really wrong with Matt Carpenter?

    I think a good bit of it is he has evolved his swing into something that just doesn’t work any more for him. It looks like he’s swinging a wedge on the back nine during a frustrating round. His head gyrates during the swing like he’s coming uncorked. You can’t do that. All this launch angle approach, with probably slower reflexes now, gives him a small margin for error. It also makes it hard to adjust and go oppo with the outside pitches. Have you noticed when he does go oppo it’s usually because he slices the ball still with too much upper cut? It’s not because his swing plane and bat angle is directing it oppo. Again, small margin for error.

    Which brings up the fact that he hasn’t handled the shift, so it’s messing with his mind. His confidence is out the window so he is hoping for walks, and then he argues called strikeouts that catch a good portion of the strike zone. I see a player who’s lost at the plate.

    Now that I’ve said that, if Shildt is going to keep going with him, I hope he figures something out soon.

    #103420
    gscottar
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    Moustakas is probably a top 10 MVP candidate this year and is owed basically nothing after this year.

    Carp is lucky to have a 25 man roster spot right now and is owed almost $40M after this year.

    So seems like a good comp to me. Which front office made the right call with their most recent 3B expenditures?

    #103434
    forsch31
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    Gscott, you are saying no one is paying Moustakas based on his prior record. They are. He has been average in the past so he is being paid average. Carpenter was above average in the past and is being paid above average in the next 2 years. It just so happens that Moustakas is now performing better than Carpenter.

    #103438
    stlcard25
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    Forsch, Moose is gscottar’s favorite non-Cards player so it’s alright if he can’t see clearly regarding him. It’s true that the Brewers’ deal with Moose is better than the Cards’ deal with Carpenter at this point, but it’s also true that Carpenter was by far the better player before the deal so it’s completely fair that he was expected to be better going forward.

    I’m sure I’ve posted this before, but Mike Moustakas has had one single season that has been barely better than Matt Carpenter’s average full season. Just because he plays in Milwaukee’s hitters haven now doesn’t mean he won’t be his usual 1-2 WAR self when some other team is conned into signing him this offseason.

    #103440
    atripleshyofthecycle
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    Gscott, you’d be a great GM if you had a time machine.

    #103448
    gscottar
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    I wouldn’t say Moose is my favorite non-Cardinal player. Not sure where that came from but I would say he has been vastly undervalued by the expert posters on this board. All I have heard for the last two or three years is how terrible of a player he his and the Cardinal front office should be fired immediately if they ever considered signing him. Then he goes to Milwaukee and puts up ridiculous numbers while being paid almost nothing and what is the response? Mostly crickets.

    Miller Park is definitely a better hitter’s park than Busch but I wouldn’t consider it a hitter’s haven. That is a convenient excuse.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

    #103450
    Cardinals27
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    We all know Carps struggles this year, but the real thing that bothers me is the contract extension. Especially when there was a 2020 option any way. They should have exercised that option and see where they are after 2020. Plus, Montero and Gorman might be knocking on the doorsteps to the majors by the end of 2020.

    #103451
    gscottar
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    Here are Moose’s home/away splits for 2019. He has hit better on the road.

    Home: 249avg/315obp/502slg/817ops/13hr/29rbi

    Away: 278avg/351obp/561slg/912ops/18hr/45rbi

    #103453
    Brian Walton
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    Another view of Moose.

    If he is such a desirable hitter, why did he remain unsigned until spring camp was opening, having to settle on a reduced-value ($10 MM), one-year deal to return to Milwaukee this season? The year before, he sat on the open market even longer – until mid-March – before signing another bargain-basement one-year contract ($6.5 MM) with Kansas City.

    At least he had a draft pick attached the first year, after stupidly declining KC’s $17.4 MM qualifying offer. But then he had a $15 MM option for this year, that he again stupidly declined, so no QO was attached to artificially limit his market appeal.

    These should be his peak years as a hitter, ages 29 and 30, yet no one was apparently offering multiple years for decent money, let alone one year. Why is that? Maybe he needs a different agent.

    What does gscottar know that 29 other GMs do not about a guy who is having a nice season, but is an MLB-average hitter over his career? And why do we care?

    #103455
    gscottar
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    If he is such a desirable hitter, why did he remain unsigned until spring camp was opening, having to settle on a reduced-value ($10 MM), one-year deal to return to Milwaukee this season?

    Well that was my question. So far it has been explained that he is really not a good player but has been saved by hitting in such a great hitter’s park.

    What does gscottar know that 29 other GMs do not about a guy who is having a nice season, but is an MLB-average hitter over his career? And why do we care?

    I brought it up because his performance the last couple of years has been very good but the interest in him has been minimal and I was curious why since it was stated that GM’s by definition pay players on past performance. I guess it depends on how long we go back to define “past”.

    I am sorry I brought up a subject that is a waste of time to you. Perhaps I should ask for permission next time.

    #103458
    Brian Walton
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    You can bring up whatever you want, just as I can share my opinion. Don’t see what he has to do with Carpenter, but carry on about him if you choose.

    #103463
    Brian Walton
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    Some may not have been aware that a youth field in Carpenter’s name was dedicated yesterday.

    https://kmox.radio.com/galleries/really-big-honor-matt-carpenter-field-dedicated-north-st-louis

    #103465
    stlcard25
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    Well that was my question. So far it has been explained that he is really not a good player but has been saved by hitting in such a great hitter’s park.

    He isn’t a really good player and he has been saved by playing in such a great hitter’s park. And yes, I did look up his splits for the year and I’m aware that he’s been better away from home. But Miller Park is significantly better than Busch and even more so for lefty sluggers. In fact it’s #5 for lefty HR factor (you need an account to sort this: https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/park-factors.php?loggedin ). I’d contend that if he was in St Louis he might be 5-10% less of a hitter than he is by park alone-40-80 points of OPS. Still a better 2019 than Carp, to be fair.

    I brought it up because his performance the last couple of years has been very good but the interest in him has been minimal and I was curious why since it was stated that GM’s by definition pay players on past performance. I guess it depends on how long we go back to define “past”.

    His WAR the last three years: 0.8, 2.0, 2.4. That’s average at best, and not very good IMO. He did get a QO and a pretty decent option that he turned down, costing himself a lot of money, which proves that he was probably overvalued if anything by his previous offers. Then when GMs were able to see him on the open market, they realized he was an average player and paid him accordingly.

    Out of curiosity and to bring things back to topic a bit, what kind of deal do you think Matt Carpenter would have gotten if he had been on the market after 2018?

    #103466
    gscottar
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    Out of curiosity and to bring things back to topic a bit, what kind of deal do you think Matt Carpenter would have gotten if he had been on the market after 2018?

    Not sure but I am confident it would have been less that 3yrs/$53M with a vesting option for a fourth year. I say that because of his age, being a poor defender, and his finish to 2018 wasn’t the same as the middle of the year.

    #103467
    stlcard25
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    Not sure but I am confident it would have been less that 3yrs/$53M with a vesting option for a fourth year. I say that because of his age, being a poor defender, and his finish to 2018 wasn’t the same as the middle of the year.

    Interesting thought. I’d imagine that if he got less than that, it would be barely less. Andrew McCutcheon got 3 years and $50 million with an option on a 4th year. Cutch is 11 months younger than Carpenter, is an actual poor defender (which Carpenter is not), and has been a lesser player than Carp since 2015.

    I would expect Carpenter could have gotten at least what McCutcheon got on the open market last off-season and maybe even something closer to what Edwin Encarnacion got after 2016 (3 yrs/$60M). I’m sure you will disagree and there’s no way of really knowing. I still stand by the point that veteran players are paid based on what they have done. Good play, good pay. Average play, average pay.

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