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Individual trades sometimes turn out to be lopsided, but overall its equal value going both ways. It follows that you cannot increase the overall talent level of the organization through trading. What you can do is shift talent around, within the ML roster or between MLB and MiLB. The Cardinals last chance to benefit significantly from shifting talent around through trades came at last year’s trade deadline. At that point the decline of the bronze busts was not so apparent, and some of the prospects in the process of stalling still had value. But that situation was fleeting and has passed. We can no longer accomplish anything truly useful through trades. We were so bad off, obtaining some middle relief and a couple 4A/bench players has been a help, but even that is going to be harder to do going forward.
All three of those guys were traded for major league help, and in season (except Drew). Maybe I’m missing something, but I presume you’re looking for trading these guys for prospects? Trading 45-50 grade, cost controlled pros for 45-50 grade prospects rarely nets you a better team in the long run.
You are getting things mixed up. YES I would trade them for prospects, with no expectation of being better now. But that’s not how we roll. We are going to flounder around at 500 than dumpster dive at the trade deadline. If you REALLY want to get better, you need a 5th starter and an outfielder. Now. Not 2 months from now. You can trade for those avg type of guys with what you have. But they aren’t going to be young cost controlled players. So we won’t do that. How would you fix the Cardinals?
You are getting things mixed up. YES I would trade them for prospects, with no expectation of being better now. But that’s not how we roll. We are going to flounder around at 500 than dumpster dive at the trade deadline. If you REALLY want to get better, you need a 5th starter and an outfielder. Now. Not 2 months from now. You can trade for those avg type of guys with what you have. But they aren’t going to be young cost controlled players. So we won’t do that. How would you fix the Cardinals?
I see. Well, that’s one way of going about it. It’s hard to imagine being better in the long run by making trades of pros for prospects, especially when those pros are cost controlled. But that’s not to say that it can never work.
As for how I’d fix the Cards…I like the general core of position player talent we have over the next few years. Goldy is likely gone after this year and probably doesn’t have much tread to be worth much at the deadline. Maybe someone offers a flyer for him. I think the right team (ahem, Dodgers) would take Arenado if we subsidized the most of rest of his salary this year and then we’d be off the hook for the next few years. So some $$ are freed up and we have a lineup of C Contreras/Herrera 1B Walker/Burleson 2B Donovan/Edman SS Winn 3B Gorman LF Burleson/Walker CF Siani/Scott/Edman RF Noot
That’s not how I’d expect the lineup to be opening day 2025, but it’s a passable lineup with any progression from guys like Walker, Winn, Gorman, Burleson.
I’d focus on the staff because the bullpen is decent and the starters won’t cut it. I want Gray to be SP3 or SP2 at worst with a good #3 next year. Arenado’s $32M and Goldy’s $25M, even with Gray’s pay bump, should net you a couple of good to very good starters. There are enough arms who project to be FA that $57M should fill SP1 and SP3 (Burnes would be the dream and would fit in the budget if they wanted him to). With a slight actual salary bump, there would be no excuses for having black holes in the rotation or lineup.
STL-Im not stubborn-whatever works. Your plan is fine I would get behind it. I wasn’t clear whether you picked up the options on Lynn and Gipson and tried to move Matz and Mikolas. Whatever we do, we know injuries happen. We can’t wind up with Carpenter and Crawford at dh and Pallante trying to start like we have this year. We have to upgrade the roster. I’m just not sure Bill has the stomach for that and paying upgraded pitching. Even with the Goldy and Arenado $ gone. They always seem to find a way to convince us that payroll has actually gone up.
Shady…Name one player the Cards have traded and eaten their salary.
They did with Fowler but they waited until the final year of the contract to do it. Moving Arenado would be much more difficult. I don’t see Mo having the energy to take on that task. His front office usually prefers the path of least resistance.
I think the right team (ahem, Dodgers) would take Arenado if we subsidized the most of rest of his salary this year and then we’d be off the hook for the next few years.
Why does anybody think the Dodgers are going to take Arenado and his .687 OPS and $64 million contract off our hands?
If you were the Dodgers GM, would you make that trade? Would you expect to keep your job if you did?
@gscottar wrote:
Shady…Name one player the Cards have traded and eaten their salary.
They did with Fowler but they waited until the final year of the contract to do it. Moving Arenado would be much more difficult. I don’t see Mo having the energy to take on that task. His front office usually prefers the path of least resistance.
You are of course correct they ate around $15million as a gift to the Angels. Think he got hurt early and disappeared. Can’t think of another significant time.
Was trying to make Shady do own his homework and back up his often questionable (pointless, endless)utterances. Have suggested Google, MLB Reference, SpotTrac etc. Probably a waste of energy.
BOCfan, you need to abandon your cynical attitude toward me and just enjoy Burleson’s development as an MLB hitter. Like I alluded to for a couple years to your dismay. I don’t need to Google that. You twisted my suggestion that Arenado go down to AA to readjust his hitting approach just to try to belittle me again. You are are deal.
Point of order. I wasn’t speaking to you or about Burleson. Enjoy your evening. You have much to learn about baseball. Good luck on your quest.
BOCfan, maybe I do. But please give it a rest on the cynicism. Just bask in your baseball superiority and leave me alone to participate in a civil baseball message board.
Given Arenado’s experience and accomplishments, the idea he needs to straighten something out is as unlikely as Wainwright’s mystery mechanics issue that all the coaches standing right there didn’t see.
If DeWitt is willing to eat half of Arenado’s remaining contract. Mo should be able to get a very good young pitcher or outfield bat in return. Maybe both if the right team comes into play.
Shady said:
If DeWitt is willing to eat half of Arenado’s remaining contract…
Do you have any examples from the last 30 years of team ownership of them acting in this manner?
I doubt he’s willing to eat half of one of those Arby sandwiches that they try to pass off as roast beef…
I wonder what happened with Arenado. He’s not that old. He just turned 33 years old on April 16. He’s not playing up to his standards. I could speculate about it, but what’s the sense in that? A couple of years ago the idea of trading Arenado was ridiculous.
I wonder what happened with Arenado.
I have previously floated the idea that Arenado’s problem is lack of motivation to play on a shitty non-contending team. The immediate knee jerk response was to leap to his defense because he is a man of high character. I get that, but he is a man not a machine. The futility could have worn through the tough shell by now. The realization that it is not going to turn around soon enough to matter would be horribly deflating and depressing. Yes, he makes a ton of money, but money can’t buy everything.
I have previously floated the idea that Arenado’s problem is lack of motivation to play on a shitty non-contending team.
The team would likely be contending if Arenado and Goldschmidt were producing at career norms.
C Contreras/Herrera 1B Walker/Burleson 2B Donovan/Edman SS Winn 3B Gorman LF Burleson/Walker CF Siani/Scott/Edman RF Noot
This seems like an accurate list of the position player resources likely to be on hand for next year, except I agree with Brian and others who argue that Arenado will remain because ownership is not going to eat the money it would take to move him. That said, we must also concede that Arenado’s salary is not going to be sitting on the bench. I am not saying any of that is good or makes sense, but it is the reality.
So, living in the real world, any thoughts about how next year’s squad and lineup might look has to start with Arenado at 3B. I would say also Winn at SS and Contreras at C. Build out the rest around that.
So pulling that into list form looks like this:
Contreras
Herrera
Walker
Burleson
Donovan
Edman
Winn
Gorman
Nootbaar
Siani
Scott
ArenadoThat comes to 12 so there is 1 or 2 open slots. I have no idea if the FO will stubbornly cling to Carlson, but they might.
Then, apart from any trades involving core players, there are a blizzard of question marks.
The first thing that comes to mind is if Mo can trade Palacios, he can trade Siani. And he might, thinking there are always Sianis out there. And Siani and Scott both seem wasteful of a roster slot.
But then, another question is Scott. It is dangerous to get lathered up over a guy who looks great in The Texas League, a lesson some people, including the Cardinals brass, refuse to ever learn. He may not pan out.
Then there is Walker, another Texas League boy wonder. They are obviously trying to fix him so as to be effective vs major league opposition. We don’t know what they are doing, but obviously it has sapped his power. That will impact the equation which determines if his bat is enough to offset his glove in right field. We don’t know how that pans out.
There is also Edman. We don’t know if he comes back or not.
Then there are Donovan and Nootbaar and the whole top of the lineup question. Donovan was the poster boy for a leadoff batter in 2022 with an OBP of .394. But his OBP exceeded his SLG, and as he explained, that prompted an off-season trip to a guru to fix his swing. It has been a two year downhill slide ever since and right now his OBP is .318, not at all suitable for the leadoff slot. In fact, his offensive production has diminished to the point he is mostly a glove man with an OK bat. Not a profile the Cardinals tend to stick with as a player plows through his arb years getting ever more expensive. A journey he begins this winter. And Noot, also formerly a promising top of the order bat, has dropped back and is shaping up as being unable to stay on the field.
Burleson’s AAA mastery means his recently revitalized bat may hold up. but his D makes him an awkward fit in the everyday lineup. A problem now possibly shared by Walker.
Winn and Gorman are shaping up to be less than the stellar up the middle defense that a winning team tends to have. They are both young, so we will see how it goes. I envision them in the middle of the infield, and Walker and Burleson manning the outfield corners. Yikes.
Everyone assumed that Mo pulled off a slick move by “stealing” Areanado from the Rockies. Well we aren’t laughing now.
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