Is it time for a complete rebuild?

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  • #165636
    blingboy
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    I am holding off trying to decide in my mind what route the front office may pursue this winter. There is almost half a season yet to play. I don’t think we come screaming down the stretch to a thrilling finish or anything, but who does what in the second half may well decide the course to be followed.

    I would keep an eye on the attendance figures as we plow through the dog days and into September. Trouble there could precipitate another Ozuna type deal to excite the funnel cake crowd.

    #165639
    bccran
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    I really liked the Ozuna deal at the time.
    He was coming off a season with 37 home runs and 124 RBI. As a 26 year old.

    #165651
    blingboy
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    Yeah cranny, me too I think. I do remember being among those who thought he would have a couple monster years and then cash in big with a big market team. But I also thought our pipeline was a never ending gusher I guess.

    #165652
    forsch31
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    Bc, you can’t just look at them. In Molina’s last 99 PAs, he is hitting .202. Currently, Williams and Thomas aren’t even on the roster. At no time that I can think of were all 6 of those players on the team at the same time. Knizner hardly gets a chance to get in a groove.

    Carpenter and DeJong are the 2 that I don’t understand. As poorly as they have performed at the plate, they should not be getting so much playing time.

    #165653
    bccran
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    I’ve always been excited about our pipeline. Trying to stay excited, even though the teams aren’t doing well at all. The excitement is mostly concentrated on the position player side with Gorman, Walker, Herrera, Torres, Winn, Perez, Yepez, Burleson, Jones, etc. Even Plummer….lol.

    #165654
    forsch31
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    Arenado last 101 PAs, .227.
    Edman last 100 PAs, .240.

    #165656
    ZTR
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    “I don’t think we come screaming down the stretch to a thrilling finish or anything, but who does what in the second half may well decide the course to be followed.”

    Agreed.

    “I would keep an eye on the attendance figures as we plow through the dog days and into September. Trouble there could precipitate another Ozuna type deal to excite the funnel cake crowd.”

    Hahaha hahaha. I think it would take another full season of this slop to put any kind of substantive dent in attendance figures…..

    #165660
    blingboy
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    I think it would take another full season of this slop to put any kind of substantive dent in attendance figures…..

    I am thinking so too but if not it will get the FO’s attention.

    #165663
    gscottar
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    When they traded for Arenado all the big shots thought that he was the missing piece. He was the last piece of the puzzle that was going to propel them to 90+ wins and a good chance at the NL Central crown. But he has been a disappointment so far. And so has Goldschmidt. Goldy is having his worst year in St. Louis. The two BIG bats in the order are not getting it done for the Cardinals. Those two are the main reasons the team is where it is.

    Arenado is the starting 3B for the NL in the All Star game and Goldy is on pace for 25 HR’s and 85 RBI’s so I don’t agree that they are that bad. Are they still MVP type players? No, they aren’t but this team has much bigger problems than those two.

    #165665
    gscottar
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    I agree with those that say the Cardinals won’t do a rebuild. They should do one but we all know they won’t. More than likely they will stand pat at the deadline and hope that getting some of our injured players back will be good enough to get us to 82 wins so they can say that we had a winning season again.

    In the offseason there will be addition by subtraction by losing Carp, Miller, CMart, Fowler’s contract, and who knows about Kim, Waino, and Yadi. We should have the money in the offseason for one big name player and several depth pieces, which we obviously need. They are also probably assuming that Gorman and Liberatore will contribute next year.

    #165666
    Ratsbuddy
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    bccran wrote:

    Matt Carpenter – .177
    Paul DeJong – .176
    Harrison Bader – .225
    Andrew Knizner – .186
    Justin Williams – .160
    Lane Thomas – .104

    Never seen anything quite like that on a Cardinal team.

    Now cranny, you know that batting average doesnt mean anything anymore. All that matters nowadays is their WWCR and their BFPIB and their ZRG and their OPC+. That means those players are really great! I mean, we all know batting average is outdated, right???

    Give me the players batting average and then the eye test and I will tell you if he’s valuable or not.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #165667
    LACardFan
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    Arenado is the starting 3B for the NL in the All Star game and Goldy is on pace for 25 HR’s and 85 RBI’s so I don’t agree that they are that bad.

    Relative to the career norms they are being paid for, they are bad.

    No, they aren’t but this team has much bigger problems than those two.

    The two biggest salaries on the team are underperforming. Those are pretty big problems, especially when looking at the remainder of their contracts.

    #165668
    gscottar
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    They are only underperforming based on unrealistic expectations. Guys in their 30’s usually don’t perform like they did in their 20’s. Now, you could make the argument that the front office should have known that before taking on that kind of salary.

    Arenado and Goldy are still producing, just not at their old MVP type selves. They are playing like guys over 30. I would be in favor of no more long term contracts to players over 30.

    #165669
    LACardFan
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    @rat – batting average has forever been presented as part of a triple slash line with OBP and Slugging % – why exclude those if you are going to make an argument?

    Is it because they don’t give you the narrative you are trying to argue?

    For instance, Harrison Bader is currently sitting on a .300 OBP and Tommy Edman is sitting on a .308. So, what’s the difference between the two? If Bader gets a hit on his next AB, they are identical.

    He also has an OPS of .749 vs Edman’s .683. One player is 10% above league average, the other is 6% below.

    But you can tell all that from batting average, right?

    #165674
    blingboy
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    They are only underperforming based on unrealistic expectations.

    I think that is true as to Goldy but not really for Arenado, this is prime time for him.

    Maybe in part NA suffers from the same thing Ozuna did in 2019 which is nobody behind him that anyone is concerned about. Maybe we will finally bury DeJong lower in the order and maybe O’Neill will earn the respect needed for that but who knows, I think he is still thought of as an inexperienced and undisciplined hitter who can be struck out. If the guys above and below him were getting it done Arenado would probably be doing a lot better.

    #165675
    bicyclemike
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    Talking about Arenado and Goldschmidt, Arenado has actually been good, a 2.7 WAR so far and a 129 OPS+. In other words, his offense is running at about 30% better than a league average guy.

    Goldy is not so good, but not horrible. A 1.7 WAR and OPS+ at 111.

    It’s just that we are expecting, and need, an Arenado that would have 20 homers right now, and a batting average of .325. Maybe Goldy at 18 homers and hitting .280.

    I think Arenado will be better over the second half and end up with a solid season; maybe 6.5-7.0 WAR or something like that.

    Goldy appears to be on a downward trajectory simply due to age. He will probably pick it up some over the second half, but not appreciably so.

    If there is any chance Nolan Gorman can play first base in the future, I would be entertaining buyer’s bids on adding Goldy for a late season push. But even “selling” on him, no one will likely take on the contract. We will be still paying a portion of it. And it would send a negative message to fans and Arenado, who could go the free agent route. I doubt Arenado will do that, but you just don’t know and likely take on additional risk that he will if you sell on Goldy.

    Also, I think Goldy is a class act and great teammate. With Carpenter gone by year’s end at the latest, you probably do not want to gut the club of another good guy.

    #165678
    gscottar
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    It looks like we are scrambling to sell tickets.

    #165680
    TexasCard
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    The ticket sales challenge isn’t a surprise. but at least one Cardinals outfielder will be playing in the All-Star game next week. He will be representing the Texas Rangers, Adolis Garcia. But hey he wasn’t near as talented as the four or five we have playing out there now.

    #165683
    blingboy
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    But hey he wasn’t near as talented as the four or five we have playing out there now.

    the most galling thing is he is an everyday center fielder. Who knew? Not anybody working for the Cardinals.

    #165684
    bicyclemike
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    At least Arozarena has been somewhat pedestrian, so we have that going for us. 😀

    #165686
    jj-cf-stl
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    Rats, if you think Arenado has been a disappointment, your eye test is failing you.

    #165689
    bccran
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    The number of hits you get in the number of at bats means nothing? Sure. Right on.

    #165690
    Ratsbuddy
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    Rats, if you think Arenado has been a disappointment, your eye test is failing you.

    Defensively he has been really good.

    Offensively he has indeed been a disappointment. Nothing major but perhaps a minor disappointment. But there are still 79 games to go so we shall see how he ends up. Same with Goldschmidt.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #165692
    bicyclemike
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    Relative to league norms, Arenado has not been a disappointment. Career OPS+ 121. 2021 OPS+ 129.

    The difference is the league is down offensively from recent norms. Arenado is actually better than he has been, but the bar is lower.

    #165703
    dac8b9
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    Bccran, the reason front offices have moved away from batting average as the most important offensive metric is pretty simple, it treats a single the same as a home run and says nothing about getting on base via walks. There are much more useful metrics to look at that do a better job of capturing how good someone is at hitting.

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