Is it time for a complete rebuild?

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  • #165790
    Ratsbuddy
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    How is it possible the Cubs have lost ten games in a row? HOW?????

    The St. Louis announcers said yesterday on the broadcast they (the Cubs) are now probably going to be sellers. That was before they lost again last night.

    The Cubs might look alot different next year…….

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #165792
    gscottar
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    Lack of pitching depth. Sounds familiar doesn’t it?

    #165793
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    Lack of pitching depth. Sounds familiar doesn’t it?

    Yep. Sogard had been reliable in his previous two outings, but he let game get out of hand last night.

    #165794
    bccran
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    blingboy – that story about Willie is going to go right over the head of some of the stat nerds on here. They just don’t get the human aspect of the game.

    #165798
    forsch31
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    Free

    Just like stats go over the head of some who like to be condescending towards others’ points of view. Either that or they choose to ignore them because they don’t meet whatever spin they want use to run a player down.

    #165800
    bccran
    Participant

    Fair enough, Forsch. Best to just agree to disagree. I apologize for any condescending words, but I and perhaps others get tired of being told that we’re old school and don’t understand advanced metrics. That we are wrong. That it’s going over our head, which is a condescending statement in itself.
    We choose to look at the stats that have been meaningful for us for years, and have worked for us for years in analyzing a player. It’s simply our personal choice.

    #165801
    dac8b9
    Participant

    blingboy – that story about Willie is going to go right over the head of some of the stat nerds on here. They just don’t get the human aspect of the game.

    Do you know how to debate something without making strawmen arguments? FYI, my day job is in mental health as a counselor. I have a great appreciation for the human element as it is kind of my job.

    I hope for your sake nobody in your life expects you to grow and change when presented with new information, as you seem to really struggle with that. Instead of arguing the topic, you and blingboy just move to a related topic, make another straw man, and just continuously move the goal posts of what is being talked about. We started talking about batting average, then moved to pitcher wins, then to analytics, now the human element. How much further should we go down this rabbit hole of baseball understanding? Tell me more about this great baseball wisdom you have access to that has been left behind by these front office executives who are obsessed with nothing but their fancy numbers and nonsense acronyms that could never tell you more about a player than what you can see with your own two eyes and know deep in your gut!

    #165802
    bccran
    Participant

    dac – one of the rules that Brian insists on is not to put another poster down in a personal regard. I have also been a counselor (for many years) working with youth and people who are going through difficult times. It’s best on this forum to deal with a post and not with the persona of the poster.

    #165803
    dac8b9
    Participant

    dac – one of the rules that Brian insists on is not to put another poster down in a personal regard. I have also been a counselor (for many years) working with youth and people who are going through difficult times. It’s best on this forum to deal with a post and not with the persona of the poster.

    That’s fine if you feel I went too far. Though I’ve seen you do the same thing to people on this board since I’ve been here, running topics into the ground and complaining when others challenge you, especially when Brian does it. You were being condescending towards me, you just didn’t say it directly to me and chose to say it to blingboy instead. There’s really not much of a difference.

    #165804
    blingboy
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    Paid - Annual

    Anyway, Mo did say something about maybe having gotten off track a bit with the analytics, I don’t remember the quote. IMO it started when Luhnow and the smart computers headed south. But we had that argument here years back. I absolutely hope they back off some unless they can hire the real Billy Beane. Or at least a heavyweight from outside the organization like TLR or Herzog who aren’t potty trained. It would do them good to have to put down paper in the F.O.

    #165805
    bccran
    Participant

    Has anyone checked how that old school manager Tony Larussa is doing with the ChiSox? Sometimes just good common sense
    is best. I wonder what Whitey would have done if the metrics said one thing but his years of experience says do something else.

    #165806
    bccran
    Participant

    dac – Brian has taken some personal shots at me out of the blue, and I’ve responded in kind. He’s done it in his role as a poster rather than in the role of a moderator. That’s all. His comments haven’t been about my breaking posting rules. Just baseball/Cardinals things in his opinion he disagrees with me about. Other posters have noticed it, and commented about it. I know him personally and don’t take offense with it at all.

    And when there’s a problem on the Cards, like the outfield issue, I do tend to continue to refer to it. Other posters at times do the same thing without being called out for it.
    Why is that, dac?

    #165817
    blingboy
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    I don’t know cranny, but I had just been thinking about what TLR would have thought of the outfield experiment thing where he was supposed to cycle in a bunch of the F.O.’s wiz bangs. He was super good at ignoring a guy he wasn’t interested in. Of course, he would still be playing Carp every day too until Mo got him off the roster.

    #165833
    dac8b9
    Participant

    dac – Brian has taken some personal shots at me out of the blue, and I’ve responded in kind. He’s done it in his role as a poster rather than in the role of a moderator. That’s all. His comments haven’t been about my breaking posting rules. Just baseball/Cardinals things in his opinion he disagrees with me about. Other posters have noticed it, and commented about it. I know him personally and don’t take offense with it at all.

    And when there’s a problem on the Cards, like the outfield issue, I do tend to continue to refer to it. Other posters at times do the same thing without being called out for it.
    Why is that, dac?

    Because when you debate things you tend to make straw man arguments and misrepresent people’s points, which is frustrating for people to deal with. You also move the goal posts a lot rather than refute a persons point. I made an argument about pitcher wins being a flawed stat, which you said nothing about, then made a comment about analytics being what’s wrong. I pointed out the most successful organizations in baseball also seem to be the best at using analytics, again you said nothing to that point, then made a comment insinuating that I don’t have the intelligence to understand the human element. Frankly, doing this over and over is frustrating. I wish you would just say what you really feel, which seems to be that you think the statistics you grew up with and your understanding of the game are enough, even if every front office in baseball would disagree with you.

    To your point about TLR, he was a great manager of people, singularly focused on what it took to be successful day in and day out. But he was notoriously a terrible front office executive and did not last long in that role despite his reputation. It’s no surprise he is back at managing, as that is what he is good at. FYI, his organization famously prioritizes analytics and the front office has much more to do with the success or failure of a team than any manager does, especially a manager in his first season with that group of players.

    #165842
    bccran
    Participant

    dac – Here’s what I don’t think you perhaps understand. I’ve been watching and enjoying Major League Baseball since the 1950s. I have my own way of enjoying the recreation it provides. I’ve been analyzing players for a long time, and have been right more times than I’ve been wrong. In my own universe, I don’t need advanced analytics to further my enjoyment of the game. That is not to put down how you like to analyze and use baseball as a form of entertainment and enjoyment. To each his own. I respect your approach. Please respect mine. Thanks very much.

    #165843
    1982 willie
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    Paid - Annual

    People can champion analytics all they want and they have their place but they aren’t the end all like they seem to be now. With stuff like that back in the 80s, we wouldn’t have had the running the bases teams we had. By having them now, people strike out way more than they should because analytics teaches you that striking out is better than putting the ball in play just because you might hit into a double play. Sorry no, that’s just pure madness. I’d rather have a coaching staff spread through the organization that can see exactly what each player brings to the table, where they excel, what they need to work on. People that just rely on these fancy stats, I don’t want them on the team, send them some place else. I want baseball people.

    #165849
    bccran
    Participant

    Agree, willie. Each player has his on uniqueness.

    #165852
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    Honest question bccran, have you ever had any kind of class or education in statistics, research methodology, or anything of that nature? I have when I was in grad school, and . . . .

    Note to self. Don’t ever start out a post this this way.

    #165853
    dac8b9
    Participant

    People can champion analytics all they want and they have their place but they aren’t the end all like they seem to be now. With stuff like that back in the 80s, we wouldn’t have had the running the bases teams we had. By having them now, people strike out way more than they should because analytics teaches you that striking out is better than putting the ball in play just because you might hit into a double play. Sorry no, that’s just pure madness. I’d rather have a coaching staff spread through the organization that can see exactly what each player brings to the table, where they excel, what they need to work on. People that just rely on these fancy stats, I don’t want them on the team, send them some place else. I want baseball people.

    Every organization uses a combination of traditional approaches like scouting, teaching fundamentals, all the stuff that’s been around for 100+ years, in combination with using analytics and technology. This idea that it’s one or the other is not really true, it’s just how it is usually framed in sports talk radio. A lot of ideas attributed to analytics have been around for decades, like pitch tunneling or swing mechanics that increase power. It’s just that these things are much easier to teach and refine using things like sensors and high speed cameras.

    I can see how people would find watching the game as it’s played today and find it less appealing than the 90’s or the 80’s. Frankly, pitching throughout the league hasn’t been this dominant since the sixties. Stringing several base hits together in an inning is much less common in part because nearly every pitcher throws 95+, has filthy breaking pitches, and pitchers have been cheating to increase spin rates. This led hitters to sell out for power and walks, not caring about strikeouts. Again, it makes sense because stringing several hits together hasn’t been this hard since the days of Gibson and Koufax. But it means there is a lot less action which is not satisfying.

    I think the league needs to make changes that will make pitching less dominant, similar to when they lowered the mound. Any well run league should be making rule changes to encourage more offense. I differ from you in that I don’t think having hitters go back to old fundamentals like flattening their bat path to make more consistent contact would really change things in any substantive way. Pitching is just too dominant right now and until the league does something to address that, this is the game we will have. Hopefully Theo Epstein in his new role with the commissioner’s office can come up with some good rule changes.

    #165854
    forsch31
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    willie, I think the best teams have a mix of all types of hitters. I still believe strikeouts are the worst outcome for a hitter. If a hitter will at least put the ball in play, there is at least a chance of something good happening.

    Advanced metrics have their place in trying to paint a complete picture of a player. Anyone who relies on just 1 metric to try to call a player good or bad has faulty logic whether they are the old school metrics or the new metrics.

    #165858
    dac8b9
    Participant

    Honest question bccran, have you ever had any kind of class or education in statistics, research methodology, or anything of that nature? I have when I was in grad school, and . . . .

    Note to self. Don’t ever start out a post this this way.

    Sure, if that came across as me trying to sound smart, that was not my intention. Grad school mostly taught me how much I don’t know about everything!

    #165859
    1982 willie
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    Paid - Annual

    Yea but analytics go against putting ball in play or stealing a base. And managers definitely go by that since steals and hit n runs are basically a no go. This idea cause guys are throwing max velocity that people can’t hit is bogus. They can if they use the right approaches. If a batter learns the fundamental way to hit in every situation, the faster the pitches, in a lot of ways, the easier it is to hit. Now maybe some guys cant adapt but that would be a problem with our drafting and player development. I know that a lot to f guys have sick movement which complicates things but some of that is ball doctoring plus shifts have made a difference but again situational hitting. Again I know they have their place and have been used for a long time but in the past managers knew when to use that stuff and when to not and didn’t have to worry about some idiot who doesn’t really know anything more than numbers second guessing him.

    #165861
    bccran
    Participant

    6 1/2 years as a military officer with a full combat tour, being head of international operations for a Fortune 500 company, and 42 years doing mergers and acquisitions on a national basis with my own firm has only taught me how much I don’t know.

    #165869
    Euro Dandy
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    Sure, if that came across as me trying to sound smart, that was not my intention. Grad school mostly taught me how much I don’t know about everything!

    Just ribbing you a little bit, dac. I usually prefer light-hearted banter (especially game threads) and only occasionally spend time debating opinions. Hard to change opinions anyway (not saying you are trying to do that). You seem genuine in what you post, which is good.

    #165873
    Euro Dandy
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    Free

    .

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