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Putting any significant weight on the 2020 season, knowing the especially difficult and unusual conditions, is not wise. IMO.
Maintaining healthy skepticism has been far more valuable to me over the years in dealing with reports, especially from sources that have clear motivations to be biased. This is even more important when I cannot see for myself. Others wear blinders and believe everything they hear, at least when it supports their pre-determined ideas. To each his own.
Does the INF situation magnify the OF situation or vice versa? 60% of the INF was under .700 OPS last year and 66% of the OF was under .700 OPS last year. Maybe we need to upgrade the INF some more.
If you can assume that DeJong and Edman will be better, then you can also assume Carlson and O’Neill will be better. Problem solved?
“Does the INF situation magnify the OF situation?”
Sure, it’s uncommon to have an entire outfield bat 7 through 9. But lets back away from the “by position” scenario and ask, how is our 7 through 9 batters vs mlb’s? Regardless of what position they play.
During 2020 our 7 – 9 batters ranked 10th in mlb. Avg was of course a 100 ops+, and STL posted a 108 ops+.
Like I mentioned in the trade thread, having Arenado in the lineup takes some of the heat off of the OF’s. There needs to be some improvement but they don’t have to become 4 WAR players for us to win. They are all young and athletic and very good defenders. I am old school when it comes to pitching and defense.
As for Dean, he is like a poor man’s version of Adam Duvall. He will have the occasional power surge but probably not enough consistent production to be a starter.
You can assume DeJong will be better because he was infected last season. Then the jammed schedule weakened him. He has a longer track record to go on. Edman went from a .850 OPS in 2019 to a .685 OPS in 2020. Let’s hope it was a sophomore slump, or the effect of all the double headers. Molina is simply on a decline due to age. IMHO we don’t go far, especially into the post season, if the OF doesn’t pick it up significantly. And unfortunately there’s no reliable projection presentation that it will, except for Carlson.
Putting any significant weight on the 2020 season, knowing the especially difficult and unusual conditions, is not wise. IMO`
I totally agree with this. I don’t take anything from 2020 for most of the team. Goldy is about the only one I feel confident in saying should have production near what he did last year.
If you don’t much much emphasis on 2020, 25, should we put emphasis on Bader’s 2019? The last “normal” season.
Did we make a mistake in trading Fowler at this point in time? Should we have kept him for 2021 and also kept our fingers crossed that he produced in his walk year?
Seems to me that a lot of high hopes are being pinned on Carlson in 2021.
r/Esteemed Rat
If you don’t much much emphasis on 2020, 25, should we put emphasis on Bader’s 2019? The last “normal” season.
Why put emphasis on anything? Bader did basically what he’s done his entire career in 2020. I don’t feel better about him or worse based on 2020. In small samples, anything can happen. Over the course of season, Bader will be a below average to average bat and elite glove. That’s fine in CF.
Maybe we should discount 2020 and look more intently at full season 2019 –
HB – 406PA/.205/.314/.366/.680 (mlb)
TO – 190PA/.251/.305/.509/.814 (AAA)
151PA/.262/.311/.411/.723 (mlb)
DC – 562PA/.292/.372/.542/.914 (AA&AAA)That may be a better assessment and evaluation?
I’ll go with no Rats, not a mistake trade Fowler, even though I had him penciled in at leadoff vs RHP’s.
His D cancels out his bat, which leaves him around replacement value, which is what happened, he got replaced.How about you? same question.
That may be a better assessment and evaluation?
Nope. Stats plus scouting is always a safer bet. O’Neill was a top 50 prospect, Carlson a top 50 prospect, Bader was missed by the raters but has an elite glove and below to average bat. Put them together and I could see anything from 6-10 WAR from our OF in 2020 without it being a huge surprise.
I’ve said this before, but I want to say it again. Personally, I don’t believe in the idea that a player is what his record says he is and will never be any mor or any less than that. I just don’t buy it. We’ve already seen both Bader and O’Neill get better offensively by virtue of relentless, hard work. I think that as long as they keep trying to get better, they will get better. If they stop trying to get better, it has to be because they stopped caring. From what I’ve read, Arenado is still trying to get better.
25 –
Going by mlb.com each year, here’s what it shows in it’s top 100 prospect list –
2016 – O’Neill 60th, Bader 83rd
2017 – O’Neill 87th, Bader 90th
2018 – no outfielders
2019 – Carlson 24th
2020 – Carlson 14thSo Bader has also made it into the Top 100 several times.
If all 3 of our starting guys reach their full potential, we’ll have an exciting outfield.
jj-cf-stl wrote:
I’ll go with no Rats, not a mistake trade Fowler, even though I had him penciled in at leadoff vs RHP’s.
His D cancels out his bat, which leaves him around replacement value, which is what happened, he got replaced.How about you? same question.
Its hard to say. I still think he’s going to have a good offensive year. And I never really thought he was another Ozuna in the outfield. Meaning bad, of course. I thought he was okay defensively.
I guess we will be able to answer this question better come August. See what Dexter is doing in Anaheim and see what our guys are doing. But my gut feeling is we should have kept him for 2021 but also gotten enough atbats for O’Neill and maybe another to see what we have going forward in 2022.
r/Esteemed Rat
I do hope the determination not to have another Arozarena doesn’t end up affecting Arenado’s opt out decision down the road. I can’t imagine Mo would let it go to that extreme, which is why I said the team needs to do well early if those PAs are going to be there for those guys.
jj, I don’t suggest that the team’s fortune rests only with the outfield, but consider this: If some combination of the other guys get off to a slow start and the team is getting mired what are they going to do? Sit and replace some combination of Yadi, DeJong, Goldy, Arenado, whichever are not hitting? Or are they going to replace a couple OK rookie outfielders hoping to shake up the offense? It is those guys that are on the bubble.
Those mistakes are fear of making moves to improve the club because everyone is potentially another Arozarena
Based on his 2020 stats, with 550 AB’s Arozarena will hit 60 HR’s in 2021. Future HOF player for sure.
I kinda like that Arenado guy they added. The 2021 team should be fine. Some guys will step up and others will fall back.
I would love for those critical of the FO to declare now which players will make it and more importantly, which will stumble in 2021. It is easy to make generic complaints, but it gets a whole lot more difficult when you have to name names ahead of time.
So which guys did they supposedly make a mistake about because they did not trade them away this winter? No need for lots of explanation – just the names, please. Then we can come back after the season and see who made the mistakes…
Using my spreadsheet from earlier this off-season, this lineup with no DH and Arenado in it would score around 750 runs if everyone hit to their Baseball Reference projection OPS, 740 runs if they hit to their career average OPS, 815 if they hit to their “best in last 5 years” projection and 630 if everyone tanked. Run environments change every year but that would put this lineup solidly in the middle of the pack in the NL most years. Given that the pitching will be in the top few most likely, and the defense probably the best in the league, that is an adequate offense.
It’s not a given (it’s been the debate of course) but if we could get .800ish OPS from Dejong and one of Carlson or O’Neill with the other breaking out, this could be a very good offense. That would make the team a Series contender.
For example:
Edman .750+
Carlson .800
Goldy .850+
Arenado .850+
Dejong .800
O’Neill .850+
Yadi .700
Bader/Thomas .750+Is it likely? Probably not. It’s possible in the sense that the 2013 team with crazy solid hitting up and down the lineup, followed by a very mediocre 2014 offense, can happen within the confines of season to season variance. Perhaps we are due.
Tough to do that, because there are so many variables. But –
Carlson will make it and be an average to above average major league player.
O’Neill has the highest power potential, but is caught now in between a power swing and a contact swing. Was benched for the playoffs because of it. Too many Ks with the power swing. Loses power with the contact swing. I believe the Cards will eventually trade him like they did Grichuk.
Another team will like his defense and power potential.Bader continues to try to power the ball.
At Florida, he hit 1 HR his freshman year.
2 his sophomore year, and 17 his junior year. Got him to be a high draft pick.
Last season he crushed one 400+ feet into Big Mac Land. He likes to hear the roar of the crowd. Can he change? Doubt it. I believe his future is as a pinch runner and late inning defensive replacement at the major league level.Thomas had a flash of power recently, but hadn’t been a top prospect coming up through the minors. He can play all 3 positions fairly well, though, and has some potential to stay at the ML level as a 4th or 5th outfielder because of his versatility.
Williams ceiling is probably as a AAAA ballplayer.
Dean will help a major league club for a year or two, but then settle back into being a AAAA player.
Just humble generic opinions from a fan
and poster.
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