DeJong extension

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  • #45057
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    The feeling of the consensus is the Cards jumped the gun with the extension. Saying that does not mean we hate DeJong.

    #45070
    Avatarforsch31
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    TexasCard

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    How many of these deals have the Cardinals done in the past 10 plus years? And of those how many have actually worked out?

    Here are the deals the Cardinals have done over the past 10+ years where they have signed a player to a long term contract before they entered arbitration.

    Matt Carpenter – 1 year 12 days in majors (6 years + 1 option year, $52 million)
    Stephen Piscotty – 1 year 76 days in majors (6 years + 1 option year, $33.5 million)
    Adam Wainwright – 2 years 27 days in majors (4 years + 2 option years, $15 million)
    Kolten Wong – 2 years 45 days in majors (5 years + 1 option year, $25.5 million)
    Allen Craig – 2 years 77 days in majors (5 years + 1 option year, $31 million)
    Carlos Martinez – 3 years 73 days in majors (5 years + 2 option years, $51 million)

    The only 2 of those that could be argued didn’t work out were for Piscotty and Craig. However, considering the Cardinals only paid Piscotty $1.333 million of his contract and Craig less than $1.75 million on his contract, I would argue that they haven’t lost on any of those contracts.

    That said, I think this contract is too early. They should have waited until at least 1/2 way through this season. I would actually wait until the end of this year.

    #45080
    Avatargscottar
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    There is a chance the front office scrambled to do something publicly since they know a good chunk of the fan base is not happy with their off season. Unfortunately this isn’t the move the fan base was looking for.

    I think I’m starting to sound more like Nate each day. Scary.

    #45084
    AvatarBw52
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    I just think some people would not be satisfied until Clayton Kershaw and Brian Harper and manny Machado walk in the door and sign with the Cards.Then some people would complain Cards paid too much.

    #45086
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    As was already asked, will those concerned please explain which of the Cards’ early deals in the past did not work out and why you feel that way?

    In addition to getting a very cheap year and a half of Lackey for Craig (and Kelly, who was also expendable), they picked up Dylan Carlson as a comp pick, too. It is too early to assess for Piscotty, but Munoz is off to a nice start.

    In both cases, the Cards did not have to eat money and one could easily argue that the players needed to be traded, anyway – whether they had a long-term contract or not. The fact the Cards got useful players in return is a positive, IMO, and that take reflects the contracts having tied up the players relatively cheaply was considered a positive by their new team.

    Could the Cards have waited with DeJong’s contract? Sure. Is there much risk in the long haul? I doubt it. As I see it, he would have to tank and then instead of trading him, the Cards hold on to him and take the financial hit in the out years. Even then, they can get out of the two option years cheaply.

    #45094
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    Martinez and Wainwright should not be considered because they had a track record before signing their extensions. The FO got very lucky they were able to sucker the Red Sox in acquiring Craig as that contract became bad. I wouldn’t go pinning my cap on Craig acting like it was planned. Cards got lucky they were able to dump him for quality players. I’d say the jury is still out on Wong’s contract as he hasn’t played over 120 the first 2 years of the contract although he hasn’t been bad. Jury is still out on Piscotty but last year was not a good year and maybe he needed a change of scenery and being closer to home is what he needed.

    #45100
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    So, as I read it, you have no examples of these deals that went bad. Only that they were “lucky” to unload Craig.

    #45103
    thejagerthejager
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    That we were able to move these guys with potentially poor contracts really doesnt have anything to do with the contracts themselves IMO… it is a separate transaction to trade contracts good or bad and while one or the other may make it more or less easy to move it doesn’t mean the contract is good or bad as a result of the return IMO it may be a factor but not proof of quality of the contract

    Craig’s contract is still bad given the outcome no matter what WE got back for it…PIscotty is still up for debate but again what we got back is more a telling of the quality of our GMs abilities to move players and maximize value than it is on the contract itself

    Gyorko got a big deal with Sd after his first big year…then he stunk it up and they looked to move him and his “bad” contract….which then once he got here turned into a “good” contract once he showed up in the 2nd half of that first year…was the contract good? was it bad? for us it was good…for the PAds it probably looks bad now as they didnt see the good version of the player under the contract they gave him…

    It doesnt really matter though… I thin kthe general sentiment is that this seems too quick but in the end we are all hopeful it works out and if it doesnt then it isnt THAT much money

    #45104
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    I don’t like the risk of singing some of these guys with unproven track records and then hoping you can dump them off on a team. I especially don’t like it when you could definitely wait a year to see how the players progress. Signing guys to long term contracts is playing with fire.

    #45111
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    Brian I have no problem with extending young talent. Even with Craig we did well.

    I DO have a major problem with any contract that blocks an excess of minor leaguers at a position when it is not necessary at the time, and would be likely barely more expensive in a year if he played well.

    Heck, Garcia maybe even could be a starter if we needed.

    Let him show it. The rush didn’t give you anything relatively speaking.

    The money isn’t an issue for me. Tactically this was idiotic at best.

    Good for dejong. Not much else to say.

    #45114
    AvatarBw52
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    Dejong`s contract per Cots Contracts

    2018 1.0 million with a 1 million signing bonus
    2019 1.5 million
    2020 1.5 million
    2021 4.0 million
    2022 6.0 million
    2023 9.0 million
    2024 12.5 million with a 2.0 million buyout
    2025 15.0 million with a 1.0 million buyout

    Cards are basically getting the next 6 years of DeJong for only THREE million more than Wainwright is making this season.
    So how is this in any way shape or form a bad deal?

    #45115
    Avatarforsch31
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    BHC, if your comments about Martinez and Carpenter and the rest of that post are in response to my post, consider that my post was in response to TexasCard’s post.

    He made the point of how many of these contracts actually worked out. From the Cardinals point of view, so far all of them have worked out. Whether they were lucky to unload them or not, the Cardinals have not suffered from entering into them. Sooner or later, one of them will come back to haunt them but they have been successful so far.

    But I still believe they were too early to do this one. If I look at only the positives, it looks good. However, DeJong has the concerns of his walk rate and a high BABIP. Also, in his last 71 PAs, he hit .250/.324/.453/.777 with 3 HRs. Was he tired? Was the league catching up to him? Will he adjust back to the league?

    #45116
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    I cant believe people (including prominent national baseball writers) continue to compare AAV of contracts of players with both non-arb and arb team control years to those contracts of players who signed contracts as free agents. Apples and Oranges! The only relevant comparison is that of what DeJong would have gotten going year to year and what he got by signing long term.

    As a comparison, let’s look at the shortstops that will make more than the $9 million DeJong will make in his last cost controlled year. There is only one (Simmons – the best in the game) that would be in a cost controlled year. Let me repeat that number – ONE! Is DeJong
    going to be that elite? Granted, that number does not take in to account salary inflation but it is still an extremely high number. I have no argument with the signing. I just think the price was way out of line. Some would argue the value is in the option years but those are also priced high. They continue to value him as rating a salary as one of the highest paid shortstops in the game.

    #45126
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    The flaw in your logic is you are comparing DeJong’s $9 MM salary in 2023 to Simmons’ $11 MM pay in 2018, ignoring the five years worth of annual salary inflation across the game that will certainly further widen the gap. You cannot just wave away five years.

    Further, the DeJong options for 2024 and 2025 are almost identical to Simmons’ salary the next two years. Again, five years of salary inflation matters in any comparison like this.

    In terms of direct results, Simmons’ 4.9 fWAR in 2017 was his career best in six seasons. His career average fWAR is 3.3. Prior to last year’s peak, his career average was 3.0. As a rookie last year, DeJong also came in at 3.0 fWAR.

    #45132
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Yes, I acknowledged the inflation angle in my post. Given this years FA market, not sure we can assume the same salary inflatiion as in the past. If DeJong is 3 WAR average for the next 6 years then probabky not an overpay. If he is 2 WAR it probably is.

    #45161
    Avatargscottar
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    So our philosophy is let’s sign a young player to a long term extension and if they flop we can always trade them? That doesn’t seem to be a sound strategy. Just because we suckered the Red Sox doesn’t mean we will sucker the the next team.

    Craig was a bad contract.

    Garcia was a bad contract.

    Piscotty was a bad contract unless he starts hitting like his rookie year.

    Wong is still up in the air. If 2017 is now the norm then his contract will be ok.

    Carpenter was a good contract but we had more sample size to make a good decision.

    There are so many on this board that love to use the phrase sample size. I would think that should apply to this DeJong extension.

    #45166
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Whoa. No one said that trading contracts is their strategy. It is a viable fallback, there to be used if necessary.

    The words “it was a bad contract” is just an opinion. Stepping back and looking at the big picture, my take is if the player was traded and the team both got out from under the commitment and received value in return, then the contract did not harm the team. If there is no harm, how can that be bad?

    So my position is not misinterpreted, I would have preferred they wait on DeJong, too. I am just not disturbed they did it, either. No one can predict the long haul.

    #45169
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    carioca is wrong IMO in stating that averaging three WAR will pay for this contract.

    3 WAR over 6 years would be well in excess of the dollars involved even by my math which is distinctly harder on low WAR players than linear methods.

    In other words, 4 million per year? 2 WAR does it. Easy. This is the contract an average player should get (and yes, that’s how bad the contract that shall not be named is).

    One 4 WAR year would pay for it in its entirety or damn close. One. Out of 6. This isn’t a big deal.

    The money isn’t the issue. Or even close.

    The problem is the fact that we have neutered the value of our farm by doing this. If you want to do this, deal away your excess of minor league shortstops first.

    The added (massive and hidden) cost is in the destruction of value in your minors.

    #45171
    AvatarPadsFS
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    Wainwright and Molina should absolutely count. Their first contracts that is. Both of those deals were overwhelming success stories

    #45172
    AvatarPadsFS
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    I have no idea why the farm system is affected. DeJong can move to 2b or 3b

    #45173
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    … where he loses his value and then makes this contract look significantly worse.

    …not bad… Just worse.

    It is a valid point… but you can’t just move people off premium positions without severe value consequences (see: carpenter, matt or machado, manny)

    • This reply was modified 2 years, 8 months ago by AvatarBrianpnoonan.
    #45177
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Brianp, my WAR valuation of DeJong is not based on what a FA WAR is worth because DeJong would not be a FA for those years. He would be 3 years prearb and 3 years of arb. That as I said above is apples and oranges in terms of comparison. The numbers I gave were rough valuations based on his contract status – not that of a FA (because he isnt one and would not be during this six year period). A 2 WAR player is not going to make $22+ million in his 3 arb years (+ $2 million +/- during his pre arb years). Feel free to dispute my apple numbers but please dont do it with oranges ?

    #45179
    AvatarBrianpnoonan
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    I know you aren’t and I am trying not to…

    The thing is, a dollar spent is still a dollar spent.

    And 1 WAR is the same on a team basis regardless of how you get it. Individually it can make one player worth a ton more than another but as a team? We just want more regardless.

    What im trying to get at is that I would rather see a hundred of these contracts versus one overpaid average free agent.

    On an absolute basis, this contract gives your young big leaguers security, and is essentially “overpaying” for clubhouse serenity and will in general pay for itself at worst.

    My argument against this one instance is that I feel the cards forgot a few things this time.

    You can nitpick about a few million and probably be right. If you look at it another way it is pretty much just a cost of doing business if you want to build from within and keep players around with “under market” contracts when they become free agents.

    You’re paying five million now to potentially save fifty million later and you get a happy clubhouse as a LARGE side benefit. Do ten of these and on average you will win virtually every time.

    #45180
    Avatargscottar
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    Whoa. No one said that trading contracts is their strategy. It is a viable fallback, there to be used if necessary.

    The words “it was a bad contract” is just an opinion. Stepping back and looking at the big picture, my take is if the player was traded and the team both got out from under the commitment and received value in return, then the contract did not harm the team. If there is no harm, how can that be bad?

    So my position is not misinterpreted, I would have preferred they wait on DeJong, too. I am just not disturbed they did it, either. No one can predict the long haul.

    We are debating semantics. It is true that the Cardinals were not hurt much by the Craig contract financially but it was still a “bad contract” based on his on-field production vs. monetary payout, regardless of who was paying it. While the Cardinals were fortunate in avoiding most of his collapse it does not change the fact they were wrong in their projections for him at the time the contract was signed. Being right or wrong in future projections is a pretty big deal.

    #45182
    AvatarNJ315
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    DeJong celebrates becoming a millionaire by striking out 3 times and committing an error. I know it is just spring training. 2018 should be very interesting indeed.

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