Cubs thread

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  • #106534
    Carter Le Grand
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    Free

    NOBODY is laying down. When a team like the cubs plate dbl digit wins over a team it’s because of bad pitching. Admittedly there’s a bozo or two who’s mind may drift once their team is eliminated, but the luxury of controlling one’s own destiny can’t be overstated.

    I love our chances.

    #106535
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Current gambling odds to win the division (from BetOnline, http://www.BetOnline.ag):

    Cards 4/9
    Cubs 13/4
    Brewers 7/1

    Pessimists could fetch a nice return with an accurately-placed bet! 😉

    #106540
    gscottar
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    No. For example, if both teams go 4-1 in their games against others and St. Louis goes only 3-4 vs. the Cubs, they win the division.

    I understand that but I am thinking it would be more difficult to go 4-1 against the Nats and Dbacks than going 4-1 against the Reds and Pirates.

    #106541
    gscottar
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    I covered the possible weekend matchups on KXNO Radio this morning and I see the Cards could be favored to take two, which would keep the same standings.

    Thurs: Flaherty vs. Hendricks – slight advantage Cubs (best pitching matchup of the series)
    Fri: Wacha vs. Quintana – slight adv. StL bullpen
    Sat: Hudson vs. Hamels – adv. Cards
    Sun: Mikolas vs. Darvish – adv. Cubs

    (Quintana and Hamels have been bad lately, which could put a lot of pressure on the Cubs relievers and on Darvish in Game 4.)

    From those pitching matchups I would say:

    Game 1: Tossup
    Game 2: Advantage Cubs
    Game 3: Tossup
    Game 4: Advantage Cubs

    #106553
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Is there any actual data that you base your opinion on? Let’s check the Cubs’ numbers this month (all since rosters expanded).

    Game 2: Quintana was pulled in his last start while giving up five runs in the third inning vs. the last-place Pirates at home (the place where the Cubs supposedly always win). His ERA in his last two starts is 15.19. In his last three, 11.32. Over that time, Quintana is averaging under four innings per start. So, why do you think Wacha is going to be worse than this?

    Game 3: Hamels is also out of whack. He has a WHIP of almost 2.50 in his last three starts, due to 16 hits and 11 walks in his most recent 11 innings. His ERA is 6.55 during that time, while he was going 3 2/3 innings on average. The Cubs broadcasters were wondering last night if Hamels would be allowed to make his next start, saying he has not been right since coming off the IL.

    So, do you think Hamels will pitch better than Hudson or do you think the Cubs pen is better than the Cards? (I would disagree with both.)

    #106608
    gscottar
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    I have zero faith in Wacha at Wrigley. Earlier this year he gave up the grand slam to the journeyman catcher to blow that game. I will be shocked if he lasts five innings.

    I listed game three a tossup because Hamels has carved us up lately.

    Frankly if you look at our record at Wrigley the last few years the Cubs should be favored in all four games. The starting pitching matchups probably won’t matter. We wilt under the pressure there. Prove to me I am wrong about that.

    #106774
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    #106782
    stlcard25
    Participant

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    Yep, you’ve got to win some tough games if you’re going to take the Central, and most especially if you want to win in October. Might as well start a trend. They just beat Strasburg and Scherzer and none of the Cubs pitchers are at that level. Hendricks is due for a clunker against St Louis like Lester and some others have had in the last year.

    #106810
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    gscottar said:

    I would say there is a 10% chance they miss the playoffs altogether. They aren’t going to stumble against the Reds and Pirates so it would require the Cardinals doing some damage to them and I am not that optimistic about that, especially at Wrigley.

    Hmmm… Make that 53%.

    Playoff odds updated after Wednesday’s games:
    Cards 93%
    Nats 92%
    Brewers 60%
    Cubs 47%

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

    #106820
    gscottar
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    Brian, if we win the NLC and the Cubs miss the playoffs I will never have been so glad to be wrong. But the Cards still have to prove they can do something at Wrigley. I will believe it when I see it.

    I was actually rooting for the Crew to win tonight. I would like to see them pass the Cubs.

    #106821
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    “If the Cubs can’t win a home series over Cincinnati in the last two weeks of the season, they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs.”

    “The Reds won the season series over the Cubs, 11-8, so Chicago does not deserve to be in the playoffs.”

    Wondering why no one is saying that here? 😉

    Seriously, the Reds showed a lot of fight and the Cubs showed they are vulnerable, even at home. The Cards clearly control their own destiny.

    #106823
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

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    Be careful what you root for, Scotty.
    The Brewers, and their lame remaining schedule, would have been in great shape with a victory tonight. They could have just sat back and watched the Cards & cubs take turns battering each other, while they just continued to sail along defeating inferior uninterested opponents. Tonight’s loss was huge, but you can’t count them out yet.

    #106824
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    I agree 100%, Pugs. The Brewers are not to be taken lightly, especially with their remaining schedule.

    #106826
    Euro Dandy
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    Sep 18 results were obviously a big plus for the Cards. Now, as long as the they can avoid being swept by the cubs, they will go to Arizona with the division lead (although Brewers could tie if Cards only win one).

    #106855
    gscottar
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    I am not taking the Brewers lightly at all. What you guys are forgetting is that everyday when I wake up until I go to sleep at night I am mostly thinking about how to end the Cubs season. If the Brewers are the team to do that then so be it. I agree it is a bit of a one dimensional way to live your life but the last few years have been hell dealing with the Cubs and their obnoxious fans.

    Two reasons why I praise the Cubs and Theo so much are :

    1. I genuinely respect the aggressive way they add to their team although it will backfire eventually.

    2. It is a bit of a defense mechanism that prepares me for disappointment if they beat us.

    I think it would be hilarious if the Cards win the division and the Nats and Brewers are in the wild card game while the Cubs are at home. I am not a big fan of the Crew but I can tolerate them 1000 times more than the Cubbies.

    #106965
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    gscottar, it seems like you are more focused on the Cubs losing than the Cardinals winning, otherwise there would be no logical reason to want the Brewers to win. As Pugs pointed out, the Brewers’ remaining schedule is so easy, they could easily slip in and take the division. For everyone else here, that would be bad.

    It is too bad those Cubs fans have beaten you down. I hope you regain the high ground very soon!

    #106968
    CardsFanInChiTown
    Participant

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    I don’t know if it has been mentioned elsewhere on here or not, but Hamels has been scratched from Saturdays game and I can’t find if they have picked someone else. I’ll take Hudson over whoever they end up with though!

    #106969
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    ChiTown, I posted the Cubs new pitcher on the Saturday game thread.

    #106972
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

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    Something about our uni’s…. I think they are the best looking in baseball. Though it should be noted that they did not look quite so vibrant when Milwaukee beat us last sunday to take the series. Jack with yet another dandy outing!

    #106974
    PugsleyAddams
    Participant

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    Wrong thread

    #107112
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Here is Exhibit A as to why those who assert Theo’s brilliance are conveniently ignoring the elephant in the room. Much of his career success (which admittedly has been extensive) has been built on buying, not developing. This is especially the case on the pitching side, and it is catching up with the Cubs in a hurry.

    I have more respect for execs like Andrew Friedman, who showed in a smaller market that they could build a competitive team from the bottom up. I bet Theo would not make it in a place like Tampa.

    If the Cubs fail this year, Maddon will take the fall, but I greatly question whether he is the most responsible.

    #107113
    bicyclemike
    Moderator

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    Of course building a w1inning club is not an exact science – there is some luck involved, be it good or bad.

    Theo sealed his legacy when he helped piece together the 2016 Cub team. He was in a different environment than most GMs, as the Cubs had gone several generations between Championships.

    But we are a “what have you done for me lately” society, and the Cubs’ future looks to be a bit bleak, despite what Jason Heyward thought when he chose to sign there (although he has played on a champion, and a couple more post season clubs while St. Louis went home all three years). One under-the-radar move Theo made that looks bad now was sending Soler to Kansas City. Dude has raked this year!

    #107130
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

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    #107133
    gscottar
    Participant

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    In many ways this Cub “dynasty” was built with homegrown players. Just not pitchers. They decided to use all of their high draft picks on position players and depend on trades and free agency for pitching. It is certainly a different strategy than the Cardinals have used.

    I agree that the sand appears to be running out of the hourglass for Theo and Company. Having a small army of mashers on the field has brought them a lot of success but tying up so much payroll in your rotation comes with a lot of risk, mainly age and injuries, which is happening now. They don’t have much pitching depth.

    #107139
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Such a significant imbalance is inherently risky, IMO. It got them one title to date. Considering where they came from, maybe that is ok for them vs. building a sustainable model. The high draft picks are over and the spending cap is looming.

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