Cubs thread

This topic contains 319 replies, has 26 voices, and was last updated by Avatar PugsleyAddams 9 hours, 37 minutes ago.

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  • #102219
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    atripleshyofthecycle
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    The very numbers you quote and dismiss are why they are the smart money. You don’t have to have amazingly high odds in your favor to have (betting) equity.

    If you doubt run differential (not speaking to anyone in particular now), just go look at the final standings every year. There are a few outliers, but the correlation to standings is enormous. And that is why it is a fairly reliable indicator of future performance.

    And just because we are a slight dog doesn’t mean I’m giving up or saying that anyone else should. I’m just saying Eurowolf’s post was a good one, and another data point. And it isn’t uncommon for people to just outright dismiss something because they don’t like it or it doesn’t fit their narrative.

    Suggesting a regression to the mean over the last 7 weeks shouldn’t be so contested. The data is the data, but that doesn’t mean we don’t get to still enjoy the games.

    #102227
    Brian Walton
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    atc, if you were commenting to me, I did not dismiss any numbers. I just offered some others to consider as well. And also noted that defining the term “smart money” is less clear and can be a point of debate. That is why I cited the oddsmakers, as one could argue they are experts. At least they have a lot riding on it. But to be honest, I don’t have any passion on this topic. Just joined the discussion…

    #104783
    Brian Walton
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    Yu Darvish has a forearm injury but isn’t talking about it.

    #104810
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    gscottar
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    The Cubs put out different information last night. It looks like a move straight out of the Cardinals medical playbook.

    The Cubs said they aren’t overly concerned about Darvish’s forearm issue, which apparently he has had for a while. Darvish is still penciled in to pitch Saturday against the Brewers in Milwaukee.

    #105508
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    gscottar
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    Rut Roh

    #105961
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    gscottar
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    #106163
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    14NyquisT
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    Starting Monday through Thursday the Cubs will be facing the top three NL pitchers in Opposition Average Against. Monday vs. Gray(CIN) 1st .198~~~~ Wednesday vs. Castillo(CIN) t-2nd .203~~~~ Thursday Flaherty(STL) t-2nd .203. Should be a good test for those Cubs bats.

    #106477
    Brian Walton
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    #106486
    Brian Walton
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    #106487
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    gscottar
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    While it would be glorious to see fat chance they miss the playoffs this year. They are averaging about 14 runs per game on this homestand.

    And I think the Cubs would be making a big mistake by getting rid of Maddon but more power to them.

    • This reply was modified 2 days, 22 hours ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #106493
    Brian Walton
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    Defining “fat chance” for you…

    Depending on the source you choose, there is currently a 25-30 percent chance the Cubs miss the playoffs. The Brewers have been playing extremely well as of late, too.

    #106497
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    gscottar
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    I would say there is a 10% chance they miss the playoffs altogether. They aren’t going to stumble against the Reds and Pirates so it would require the Cardinals doing some damage to them and I am not that optimistic about that, especially at Wrigley.

    #106499
    Brian Walton
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    Again, you mistakenly overlook the Brewers, who are just one game behind the Cubs. The Brewers are closer to overtaking the Cubs than the Cubs are to overtaking the Cardinals. All three teams are probably not going to get in. All 12 of Milwaukee’s remaining games are against losing teams – SD, Pit, Cin, Col.

    #106501
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    gscottar
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    I am not forgetting the Brewers but I think there is a better chance they overtake the Cardinals than overtaking the Cubs. I think the Cards are the team in danger of missing the playoffs.

    #106502
    Brian Walton
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    Of course you do… 😉

    #106515
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    gscottar
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    Well it isn’t hyperbole. It is just the reality of the schedule. Not including head to head:

    The Brewers have the Padres, Pirates, Reds, and Rockies. That is pretty easy.

    The Cubs have the Reds and Pirates. Very easy.

    The Cardinals have the Nats and the Dbacks. Not so easy.

    Then there is the 7 head to head games between the Cards and Cubs. I do not see the Cards winning the majority of those head to head games.

    #106519
    Carter Le Grand
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    gscottar: ” I do not see the Cards winning the majority of those head to head games”

    I don’t either but the potential is there. As to the “tanking” by bad teams: I don’t buy it. GM’s tank, not ball players.

    #106522
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    CariocaCardinal
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    If we can’t beat the Cubs by taking the majority of these upcoming games with them we simply dont belong in the playoffs.

    #106523
    Brian Walton
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    The Cards do not have to win the majority of the remaining head-to-head games. Some people act like it is Chicago with the two-game division lead.

    #106524
    Brian Walton
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    CC said:

    If we can’t beat the Cubs by taking the majority of these upcoming games with them we simply dont belong in the playoffs.

    Interesting stance, but if they finish ahead in the standings, they belong.

    P.S. To be specific, if the two teams played their remaining five games against other teams and have the same record, and the Cards went 3-4 against the Cubs, they would win the division by one game. Good enough for me. (This excludes the Brewers.)

    • This reply was modified 2 days, 19 hours ago by Brian Walton Brian Walton.
    #106526
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    gscottar
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    The Cards do not have to win the majority of the remaining head-to-head games.

    That is true assuming that we win a majority against the Nats and Dbacks while they lose a couple against the Reds or Pirates. I wouldn’t place a large wager on those things happening.

    • This reply was modified 2 days, 19 hours ago by Avatar gscottar.
    #106528
    stlcard25
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    The Cards will have Flaherty and Hudson going twice each in those Cub games. That should help. Each of the other starters would get one start in the seven. The Cubs will have noted Cardinal killer Cy Hendricks going only once (opposite Flaherty) with two starts apiece by Darvish and Hamels and one each for Quintana and Lester.

    All that to say that I don’t mind the pitching matchups. It would certainly help if the Dbacks keep up their cold streak for our series.

    #106529
    Brian Walton
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    gscottar said:

    That is true assuming that we win a majority against the Nats and Dbacks while they lose a couple against the Reds or Pirates. I wouldn’t place a large wager on those things happening.

    No. For example, if both teams go 4-1 in their games against others and St. Louis goes only 3-4 vs. the Cubs, they win the division.

    #106531
    Brian Walton
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    I covered the possible weekend matchups on KXNO Radio this morning and I see the Cards could be favored to take two, which would keep the same standings.

    Thurs: Flaherty vs. Hendricks – slight advantage Cubs (best pitching matchup of the series)
    Fri: Wacha vs. Quintana – slight adv. StL bullpen
    Sat: Hudson vs. Hamels – adv. Cards
    Sun: Mikolas vs. Darvish – adv. Cubs

    (Quintana and Hamels have been bad lately, which could put a lot of pressure on the Cubs relievers and on Darvish in Game 4.)

    #106532
    stlcard25
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    The Reds and Pirates have each won 4 of their last 10. So they may not have entirely laid down yet. My hope is that the Cubs’ bullpen really lets them down in a game or two and the Cards can drive the nail in with a clincher in St Louis the last weekend (and ideally knock them from even a wild card, but one can dream).

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