July 23, 2019 at 7:31 pm #99053July 26, 2019 at 2:20 pm #99350
Cubs add one lefty reliever, Derek Holland, for cash from the Giants and DFA another, Tim Collins. Like Shreve, Holland had been DFAed.
Holland held lefties to a .471 OPS this season, but was totally hammered by RHHs to the tune of a 1.022 OPS (including 17 home runs) in 219 plate appearances.
Might be nice to have against a Votto, if the Cubs can afford to carry him for one batter a game, but should have no relevance to the RH-hitting Cardinals.July 26, 2019 at 3:13 pm #99351
Not sure what the stats say but I don’t see where Holland is much of an improvement or a step up from Collins.
r/Esteemed RatJuly 26, 2019 at 8:44 pm #99378
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Would have loved the cubbies to have made a move for Shreve….. but Holland works for me.July 26, 2019 at 11:33 pm #99450
Is there any chance the Cubs made this deal so that the Giants would be less inclined to trade one of their lefty relievers to the Cardinals?July 27, 2019 at 12:21 pm #99503
I don’t think so. I think the Giants DFA’d Holland so they weren’t planning on keeping him anyway.July 28, 2019 at 7:47 am #99590
Reminder: Kimbrel received a three-year contract for $43 MM.
This is the concerning trend, obviously. It's difficult to know how to parse "give the man a minute, he didn't have a spring training" with "we saw some of it last year." pic.twitter.com/ukfFl9U2N8
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) July 28, 2019July 28, 2019 at 8:55 am #99598
More like a 2.5 year contract for $43MM. 😉July 28, 2019 at 9:51 am #99601
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Gotta say, I really like Joe Maddon. The guy’s got a great personality. Disagree with him now and then, but he is fun.
Speaking of the Cubs, or more specifically the upcoming series, Bike Mike will be in attendance Tuesday night! I will post this on the game thread as well when it is available. If any TCN folks are around town and either attending the game, or will be downtown during the day I would love to meet up for a beer somewhere.
Also I would like to hear opinions on some of the better places to hang before the game.
During the day I am going to hit Ballpark Village and the Cardinals team museum.July 28, 2019 at 9:55 am #99602
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Sweet! If Kimbrel doesn’t come around and the cubs miss the playoffs, not only may we see Maddon leaving, but also maybe Theo making a mad dash himself. Then we could swoop right on in there and snatch Theo. But then again the Cardinals don’t fit Theo’s qualifications of being either a perennial loser whose owner has both deep and loose pockets or a team that has young talent ready to emerge, have not won a championship in the past 60+ years and whose owner has both deep and loose pockets.July 28, 2019 at 11:27 am #99610
Is Kimbrel becoming the next Greg Holland? Wouldn’t that be sweet?July 30, 2019 at 1:42 pm #99942August 11, 2019 at 11:01 pm #101762August 14, 2019 at 6:58 pm #102085
As we know, the cubs have struggled on the road. I was looking over how the Cards, Brewers and cubs have done with respect to run differential (Pythagorean Theorem). Recall, that’s this is Bill James’ idea that past run differential is a better predictor of future performance than past win-loss percentage. Deviations between the two have been explained by random luck, clutch-ness, good bullpen, and maybe other reasons.
To date, the cubs have underachieved, the Brewers have overachieved, and the Cards are just about on target with respect to the Pythagorean. So all other factors being equal, the cubs would be expected to win at a greater rate going forward, and the Brewers at a lower rate.
I broke the Pythagorean numbers down to home-away splits. It reveals that the Brewers are significantly overachieving at home and the cubs are significantly under achieving on the road.
The cubs’ run differential on the road is zero going into tonight’s game (291 scored and 291 allowed). That means they should have a .500 road record per the Pythagorean. Their road record is actually 23-36 — quite a statistical improbability.
Not that I looked at this to make any conclusions, but it does point to the cubs being favored to win the division if you buy into the theorem. I was just bored and snooping around.August 15, 2019 at 6:40 am #102167
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That’s interesting Euro…. but they still have to play the games.August 15, 2019 at 8:03 am #102184
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Considering the Cubs are 12-26 in road games decided by 3 runs or less, I think their record is fairly accurate. Blowouts can really skew the run figures for the Pythagorean record.August 15, 2019 at 8:39 am #102188
Deleted- wrong thread.
August 15, 2019 at 9:13 am #102195
- This reply was modified 1 week, 2 days ago by Minuteman3.
I am not a big believer in run differential either. Winning 3-2 counts the same as winning 10-1. This isn’t Premier League “football” where point differential is used as a tiebreaker in the standings.
What irritates me is that most of the talking heads on MLB TV or MLB Radio still gush over the Cubs and still automatically assume the Cubs are going to win the division. The only debate in their mind is if the NLCS between the Dodgers and Cubs will go six games or seven.
Now do I believe the Cubs could win the NLC? Yes of course they could but to assume it is a given seems rather presumptuous.
August 15, 2019 at 9:47 am #102199
- This reply was modified 1 week, 2 days ago by gscottar.
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Remember 2016 when the Cards had that big run differential? It seemed like the offense could only score 1-2 runs or 10+. Thus it made them look better than they really were.
The Cubs are definitely regressing, IMO. They get credit for past success, which is fine to a degree…but they’re probably a 90 win team right now by talent. They could get to that level or could not. (Fwiw, they would need to go 26-16 to get there from here out). Hopefully they fall apart and the Cards surge and this is a moot point in October.August 15, 2019 at 9:53 am #102200
Good post, Eurowolf. Pythagorean run differential is meant as an indicator, not any sort of absolute predictor. Of course there are times when it is going to be a false positive.
But for those of you saying it is total bunk – the Cardinals and Cubs are tied for first in the standings now. If you guys truly believe it is nonsense, you can make some good money betting on the Cardinals right now. You can certainly get even money from some people here. Anyone willing to put their money where their heart is? Or are we really just dismissing stats that don’t say what we want them to?August 15, 2019 at 10:20 am #102204
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Do you mean betting against the Cardinals?August 15, 2019 at 10:33 am #102208
Anyone willing to put their money where their heart is? Or are we really just dismissing stats that don’t say what we want them to?
Well I don’t gamble, like ever. But that doesn’t mean that I have to believe in run differential.August 15, 2019 at 10:52 am #102211
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The Cardinals are 19-18 on the road in games decided by 3 runs or less. So they are now 11-14 in games decided by more than 4 runs. To me, it indicates the Cardinals are better on the road than the Cubs. I am very interested in how a team does in the close games.
There is no doubt in my mind that the Cubs’ offense can really erupt for some runs. The question becomes how the team performs in the close games. The Cubs have had a total of 35 (22-13) blowouts (5+ run differential) this year. The Cardinals have had 29 (15-14).August 15, 2019 at 11:22 am #102213
Do you mean betting against the Cardinals?
That’s currently where the smart money is.August 15, 2019 at 11:46 am #102214
Of course, where the smart money is a matter of opinion.
Last I checked, the Cubs were 7/1 to win the National League and the Cards were 8/1. Cubs were 7/5 favorites to win the division and the Cards 7/4. Very slim difference.
FWIW, I doubt run differential (and every other common way to look at teams comparatively) is unfamiliar to the odds-makers.
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