July 10, 2017 at 7:03 am #27161
We just need to settle into a steady regular 8 on the field everyday, and stop the musical chairs.
IF – Gyorko, DeJong, Wong or Carp, and Voit?
OF – Fowler, Pham, and Bader?July 10, 2017 at 8:12 am #27164
Agree to an extent but we need to clear out some names to do it. We simply have too much depth.July 10, 2017 at 9:11 am #27171
Too much depth of average players. The real question is, who can become an above average player if settled into a regular role? Gyorko seems to have met the challenge. DeJong at SS, as he accumulates more time at the position?
Wong? Voit? Have Grichuk and Piscotty been given enough time? Can Bader rise to the challenge? Should Kelly be given some time in LF at Memphis? He was drafted as a third baseman.July 10, 2017 at 9:13 am #27172July 10, 2017 at 9:22 am #27175
Exactly my point… Which is why you sell high on players having good years etc.
You cant really move forward until you clear the decks as it were.
Lots of questions not many answers. Regarding kelly though… I put this in a different thread but need to say it again.
He should be one of the top 5 prospects in baseball at this point. And he should stay at catcher as much as possible. Dont mind left or first on days yadi is catching but still.
Name another prospect 22 or younger at aaa with an ops about 75-150 points higher than their positional average with plus defense at said position. You might find one. Moncada… maybe… Theyve got a 30 point or so difference in ops and he plays 2nd which is a much easier position. Not sure what the averages all are.
Point is… Yeah… He’s a catcher.July 10, 2017 at 9:41 am #27179bicyclemikeModeratorPaid - Annual
Matheny is right in that he and the players need to focus on playing the game, and not be distracted by trade talk. Trade talk is mostly media speculation and opinions.
But it has always been there, since the early days of professional sports. Once radio coverage became widespread, it was common for radio announcers to call out players. That is not done too much today, but now we have all of us fans throwing opinion on social media.
At any rate, the first half of the season has not worked out at all like the club had planned. Fowler was acquired to get us a legitimate leadoff hitter and stability in center field. But when Carpenter started slow, it was assumed his problem was that he was not hitting lead-off, and he was moved there. That was a mistake in my opinion.
Then Dexter has had some injuries, and Tommy Pham looks like he could handle center field just fine. Another mistake, which I harped on a lot last year, was not playing Pham everyday from around mid-August to the end of the year. Matheny kept playing Moss, despite his being in an historic slump. Pham should have been auditioned to see if he might be a legitimate candidate for an outfield spot this year. Now maybe Pham was having those vision problems then, and that’s why he was not playing much. If so I give the club a pass on that.
The remaining issues are things that happen beyond the club’s control. Reyes goes out for the year, Peralta got real old real fast, Wong has missed a lot of time, Piscotty had not been near what he was last year, nor has Diaz, nor Carpenter, nor has Grichuk based on his second half. Positives are DeJong, Gyorko looking like the real deal, and some good starting pitching.
I think we should mostly look to sell, but not dismantle the club. Grichuk is another guy we could possibly deal (in addition to Lynn, Oh, and Carpenter). In fact I would see what we could get for any of the outfielders other than Pham and Piscotty, and likely Dexter as well as I doubt anyone would want him.
Second half, we should go with this order basically every day assuming these guys are here and healthy:
DeJongJuly 10, 2017 at 9:44 am #27181
I have seen several recent references pinning many of the Cubs’ problems on no longer having Fowler. Absence always makes the heart grow fonder.July 10, 2017 at 12:20 pm #27197
If Cards do become sellers, shouldn’t Duke be on the list? He might bring more than Oh if a team is convinced he is healthy.July 10, 2017 at 1:15 pm #27205thejagerParticipantPaid - Annual
Duke as a trade chip is pretty intriguing…though i cant imagine we’d get much as he wont get much time to show off his health before the deadline…still…if we see his value for this year as absolutely nothing…then anything in return would be worth it..
still i think he could be pretty nasty for us in the pen for a playoff push
i think people have forgotten how good he was last year…he isnt a Randy Choate out there he can be pretty dominant out there in setup like situations…July 10, 2017 at 1:23 pm #27208
1.) The Fowler trade was to lock in a lead off batter so Carp could hit third and swing with power. That failure has really upset the applecart.
My quess is that they will try to see what they can get with a Wong/Lynn/Oh package.
I still don’t understand what is so wrong with having the two of them hit 1 and 2 or 2 and 1. What difference does it make….really?July 10, 2017 at 1:31 pm #27210
What a lousy move the Fowler signing has become. Putting an OF together for the future is greatly effected by having him around and paying him so much. There’s a lot of chatter about acquiring an OF with power to fill the middle of the order. We may need to trade off Piscotty instead. That Fowler money would come in handy in getting us a power bat instead of us doing the usual and winding up with Bourjos. Mozeliak will still be feeling the embarrassment as Fowler’s presence continues to disrupt this team going forward and his skills continue to evaporate.
Fowler very recently was having an offensive season very close to, if not, his career best. In what world does that make his signing lousy? It’s still just $16.5M a year. This group think that he is struggling and his signing will hamstring us reminds me of all the folks bickering about Mike Leake last year. Cost-controlled production certainty is a very valuable attribute.July 10, 2017 at 1:33 pm #27211
To me, he looks like he doesn’t have his head in the game most of the time.
Are you referring to Carpenter? I don’t see that at all with him.July 10, 2017 at 1:47 pm #27214
A couple of years ago I would have thought you were crazy if you had said that. Now I totally agree. I just don’t see what good he is doing. Poor defense, low average, that doesn’t cut it. But then again, everybody has a bad year so maybe he can right the ship either in the 2nd half or 2018.
Carpenter’s defense at 1B is not poor:
Back in May: 1B – Matt Carpenter: 2 DRS and -2.8 UZR/150.
Now: 1B – Matt Carpenter: 626 Innings, 4 DRS, 1.8 UZR/150
He also has a 119 wRC+ and a 118 OPS+. That’s above-average too. Look at more than batting average.July 10, 2017 at 2:39 pm #27235
Settle eventually into your best 8 and go with it. I’m not sure that Piscotty sand Grichuck are the answer. They’ve really disappointed. Would like to see how Bader looks in a major league uniform. Over the Winter we pinned our hopes on youngsters Wong, Piscotty, Adams, Diaz, and Grichuck. That hasn’t worked up to expectations. Maybe we give it a shot now with DeJong, Voit, Wong, and Bader in the lineup everyday.July 10, 2017 at 2:42 pm #27236July 10, 2017 at 3:01 pm #27240
Cubs with the same record but twice the chance of the playoffs? Is that solely based on remaining schedule?July 10, 2017 at 3:04 pm #27243
Oddsmakers currently have the Cards at 50:1 to win the World Series.July 10, 2017 at 5:36 pm #27255
B. Noonan, what did you have us at? 1000:1 a few weeks ago?July 10, 2017 at 6:41 pm #27256858booyahParticipantFree
Looking at whom could be traded off the team It’s clear Lynn and Oh are the 2 that stand out.Now other names are popping from people like Gyorko, Wong, Carpenter, Duke. It’s interesting to think about what they could fetch.
My feeling is this team isn’t a contender but they can’t really do anything until they see how the team plays coming out of the break on the 10 game road trip. IF they stumble in the first 2 series then my guess is they’ll look to trade Lynn and Oh by the deadline. I don’t think they’ll deal Carpenter unless they’ll be blown away by a deal. Wong I think is in a same position and honestly I think we need to keep our high OBP guys in hopes of landing a big fish(see what I did there) in the off season. Duke might fetch something at the waiver deadline. I don’t think he’ll fetch much if he’s not able to return until the end of the month. I still think it’ll be a mid level prospect and not much more.July 10, 2017 at 6:42 pm #27257
Still do… Ish.
50 to 1 when it is 4 to 1 to even make it? That assumes 50-50 odds each round at that point.
Trust me it ain’t… We would be major underdogs every round. Maybe 9 to 1 odds (10% shot).
Do the math. 9*9*9*4=2916 … Or roughly 1 in 3000.
I was being generous at that.July 10, 2017 at 7:37 pm #27261
If we play well enough in the second half to make the playoffs, a 50/50 shot in each round makes sense.July 10, 2017 at 7:45 pm #27262
I dont see it. I thought I was being kind saying 10% shot each round.
I was thinking way closer to an 8th seed in the nba playoffs. Sure it happens. Sometimes.July 10, 2017 at 8:35 pm #27264mudvilleParticipantPaid - Annual
I could see trading Carpenter and Lynn to the Yankees for three of their top prospects. That would give them a pretty good chance against the Red Sox. I would want my choice of three of the Yankees best prospects for that kind of a deal. Then, possibly offer one of those prospects plus one of our prospects, not named Reyes or Kelly, to the Blue Jays for Donaldson. Then, trade Gyorko to the Red Sox for two of their best pitching prospects. Then, we would have so much pitching to offer the Marlins that they would have no choice but to send Stanton to St. Louis.
Of course, this is all semi-delusional. But, what the heck…..July 11, 2017 at 11:18 am #27297
Here is the trajectory they are on.
NL playoff odds: https://t.co/HfEHeDgBXj
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro
Also per fangraphs: The projections give the Cards a 21.8% chance to win the division and a 10.4% chance of winning a Wild Card. Those along with their projected chances in a potential Wild Card game combine to give the Cards a 27.1% of getting to the NLDS.July 11, 2017 at 11:45 am #2730114NyquisTParticipant
The experts are making me think that we’ll be having another month of the hot stove league this autumn. It may be time to circle the wagons and look at ’18 with more optimism. We certainly need that masher in the middle of the lineup. But let’s face it…. it won’t be a top-tier player. Someone just below that and costing less sounds right.
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