Cardinals’ Off-season Needs

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  • #144550
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Stealing the TB scouting department sure wouldn’t be awful. I’m rooting for them to win the WS at this point, but those guys are good….

    #144552
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Such innocent prattle coming from Tinky. He doesn’t see all the magnificent clothes.

    BTW, I have felt like you for more than a couple years. They react to symptoms year to year as they arise. Seems to have been that way since Oscar T. The overarching blueprint is vague.

    #144553
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Rats asked:

    What is everyone expecting from Carlson if he plays pretty much everyday in 2021?

    I am not one who prepares detailed stat projections for players and it is still early for those who do them to publish. But I know Todd Zola at Mastersball is releasing his first cut on 11/1 so I figured he has to be quite a ways along. Here is what he shared with me for Carlson. It is preliminary only, as he has everyone with 600 PAs to start.

    player

    PA

    AB

    H

    HR

    R

    RBI

    SB

    AVG

    OBP

    SLG

    Carlson, Dylan

    600

    538

    136

    21

    79

    67

    15

    0.253

    0.322

    0.448

    Interestingly, the closest player in 2020 to a .770 OPS was Harrison Bader (at .779). Only Goldy and Bred Miller were also better among those in the regular playing group.

    #144554
    Avatarbccran
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    A .779 OPS ranking third on the Cardinals is only a testament to the team that came in last in home runs, doubles, and total bases in all of MLB.

    #144555
    Avatarbccran
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    Bader’s OPS would have ranked 6th on the Reds. 7th on the Braves. 7th on the Padres. 5th on the Astros. 7th on the Dodgers. Etc. Etc. etc.

    #144556
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    We get you don’t like Bader. The discussion was about what to expect from Carlson next year and this projection has his 2021 OPS about the same as the 2020 Bader you are running down. Isn’t that concerning?

    #144558
    Avatarbccran
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    It’s only concerning because of the presumed validity of that particular projection. I think Carlson will be well into the .800s as he gets his feet on the ground.

    #144586
    Avatarforsch31
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    Bccran, absolutely no one on this thread has denied that more offense is needed for 2021. I guess I don’t understand the need to keep bringing up 2020 numbers like you do. It’s obvious you are trying to rub it in on a player you don’t like.

    Like Brian said, if Carlson projects to have OPS numbers that are close to Bader’s 2020 numbers, that is a little concerning. He is supposed to be better than Bader by quite a lot. I hope Carlson outperforms those numbers.

    I also hope they get another offensive threat to the lineup. Adding Carlson at close to an .800 OPS plus another .850+ OPS at another position will go a long way to making the lineup dangerous. The team would be subtracting 2 weak bats and adding a lot of offense.

    #144587
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    It’s a 600 PA projection, compared to an actual 125 PA season cranny. How valid is Baders 2020? It’s in the record books.

    How would Bader do over a 600 PA projection? We know he has posted a .703 ops over his last two seasons (531 PA’s). We’ll let the same guy come out with Baders projection and see.

    To clarify how small a sample Baders 2020 season was, in his last 10 PA’s he went from a .707 ops to a .779, he finished hot. Over 600 PA’s, 10 hot PA’s get watered down badly.

    Carlson may still have times he struggles, so .770 may be fairly accurate, but they’re just projections, just like the one you just gave. Best guesses.

    #144603
    Avatarbccran
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    Anyone who puts Bader in the same category as Carlson needs to think twice.

    #144612
    AvatarTinky
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    “Such innocent prattle coming from Tinky. He doesn’t see all the magnificent clothes.”

    Bravo Euro.

    That is some next level Shakespearean prose right there. So good that I’m not sure if you called me a fool or Mo a fool, lol.

    “Prattle” though. It’s hard not to take that one negatively. But then you said you’ve felt as I’ve felt for at least a couple of years. A very European take, I must say. But hey, Europe is one of my favorite places to visit. So please don’t take that the wrong way 🙂

    Go Cards.

    #144622
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Haha Tinky, yes I was agreeing with you! Hans Christian Andersen, not Shakespeare. Still European though!

    The “innocent prattle” line was delivered by a father who was initially embarrassed by his child for saying the emperor had no clothes. I’m sure you know what I’m talking about now, but in case not, all the emperor’s “yes men” were afraid to say it, but the child blurted it out. Then the whole town realized the child was correct and the emperor had been suckered into not wearing his magnificent clothes.

    #144657
    Avatarbccran
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    How do you solve the Carpenter, Bader, O’Neill, Fowler problem?

    #144668
    AvatarTinky
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    Lol Euro. Thanks for the literature lesson!

    #144702
    Avatarmspaid
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    bccran:

    The thing is simplicity itself. Get rid of all four of them, which could mean eating half of Carpenter and Fowler’s salary…do it. Get rid of the refuse and start building a quality team from outside the organization.

    #144704
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    How do you solve the Carpenter, Bader, O’Neill, Fowler problem?

    Carpenter and Fowler are surely gone after this year. I think unless you’re willing to add two OFers this off-season (perhaps you are, I’m not there myself), you need to sort out which of Bader or O’Neill is a player you can keep around 3-4 more years and which is trade bait. Bader is probably safer to trade away as he’s got less control and a lower ceiling, but he also offers a floor with his elite CF defense that makes him useful to have around.

    #144705
    Avatarbccran
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    Bingo, mspaid. Then fill in some gaps with short term solutions from the outside until your next group of prospects are ready to get their shot – Gorman, Montero, Nunez, Torres, Herrera, Fletcher, Walker, Winn, etc.

    #144706
    Avatarbccran
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    25 – Carlson and Fowler are set in the OF for 2021. I’d add a left fielder this off season as well as a short term solution at 3B. Then add another outfielder in 2022.

    #144709
    Avatarforsch31
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    OK, bccran, how do you do this within DeWitt’s budget and the Cardinals’ way of doing business?

    #144710
    Avatarbccran
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    How about Pederson or Brantley in LF and Turner at 3B. Trade Wong, Martinez, and Miller to clear salary for them.

    #144712
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    25 – Carlson and Fowler are set in the OF for 2021. I’d add a left fielder this off season as well as a short term solution at 3B. Then add another outfielder in 2022.

    Fowler should have a very, very, very short leash in RF. If we sign a Brantley or a Pederson, I would not hesitate for one second to bench Fowler if he’s not hitting well and put Bader or (preferably) O’Neill in. I’m not interested in trading 10-20 WAR over the next 5 years away to save a guy who’s going to be worth 1.5 at best.

    #144730
    Avatarmudville
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    The more I think about it, the more inclined I am to agree with the strategy to strengthen the team in 2021, and try to win big in 2022.

    Here’s one possible strategy:
    1. Trade for Lindor and move DeJong to
    3B. Extend Lindor.
    2. Trade pitching for a high ceiling
    like the ones the Twins and the
    Mariners have, (and don’t really need.)
    3. Move one of our up and coming third
    base prospects to third base in 2022.
    Of course, it takes a willing partner to
    make a trade happen.

    #144733
    Avatarbccran
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    One thing we know for sure. Neither O’Neill or Bader have earned a starting job. We statistically had one of the worst offensive outfields in Major League Baseball in 2020. Cardinal fans are savvy. They won’t be happy unless some additions are made to that outfield in 2020.

    #144734
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    mspaid, if the org swallows their pride and releases Fowler after his 2018, how much do we play Arozarena in 2019? If he gets 250 PA’s, instead of 23, does he still get traded? Or does the org have the opportunity to better gauge his breakout?

    There are negative impacts to keeping sunken costs on the roster, beyond their lack of production.

    #144735
    AvatarCard4Ever
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    Best free agents available:

    Trevor Bauer (Reds) – I wish. Mo always talks about shorter term larger per year contracts. Now is time, lol.

    J.T. Realmuto (Phillies) – Not a fit with Yadi.

    George Springer (Astros) – Too pricey, but would be a great addition.

    DJ LeMahieu (Yankees) – Interesting, but doubt Yanks don’t resign him. Also, 2B is best position, though has played some 3rd.

    Michael Brantley (Astros) – All he does is hit. Will probably cost 3/60 minimum. Also, if Springer leaves can Astros afford to lose both?

    Didi Gregorius (Phillies) – Can’t see the fit.

    Justin Turner (Dodgers) – Fills need and still hits. But only a month from 36.

    Marcus Simien (A’s) – No thanks. One great year and no others above .735 OPS or above 99 OPS+.

    Joc Pederson (Dodgers) – Only as a platoon.

    Nelson Cruz – (Twins) – Mashes the ball still at 40. When will MLB decide on DH though?

Viewing 25 posts - 301 through 325 (of 478 total)
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