October 13, 2020 at 4:24 pm #144390
Factoring in also the economic times in MLB.October 13, 2020 at 4:45 pm #144391
M o o k i e B e t t s . . . 1 2 y e a r s , $ 3 6 5 m i l l i o n . T h i s J u l y . . .October 13, 2020 at 4:51 pm #144394
Use any example you wish, but most writers have said that the FA market will probably be financially tamped down this off season.October 13, 2020 at 4:52 pm #144395stlcard25ParticipantPaid - Annual
While I understand the point you are trying to make, BW, Mookie Betts is a prime aged superstar with 5 Gold Gloves and two MVP caliber seasons (1 win) on his record by his age 27 season. I would expect the top players who are in their primes to still get big money.
I wouldn’t expect the past prime players to get to or above market value even if they are very good like Brantley. That said, I wouldn’t expect him to take a 25% pay cut either. A very slight drop might be the expectation, which is what I was projecting.October 13, 2020 at 5:20 pm #144397
bccran, I’d appreciate it if you would please direct me to a few of the “most” writers who say that the market will be tamped down. That way I can read up and be better informed. Thanks.
I did see concern about potential non-tenders that could expand the pool and learned that Brantley’s nickname is “Dr. Smooth”. So there’s that.
stlcard25, I also do get your point that Brantley is not in the top tier of free agents. I am just not sure anyone really understands if the market will take a dive and if so, how much. But like I said, I am very open to learning more informed opinions.October 13, 2020 at 5:21 pm #144398PadsFSParticipantFree
I don’t even see that Brantley gets a pay cut. Likely a 3yr deal for $48M. I don’t think that’s unreasonable.
I don’t see the Cardinals making the postseason without someone equivalent to Brantley being added to the offense.
How the FO makes that happen with all these underperforming, no-trade clause vets is up to him to figure out. They should save some money on a Molina contract and maybe they can trade Miller and Wong away. Ed man can be the full-time 2Bman. If it’s a choice between Edman and Brantley vs. Edman and Wong, it should be a no-brainer, given our weaknesses.October 13, 2020 at 5:24 pm #144399
Speaking of the Astros Brantley, their entire outfield is FA’s-to-be. Springer, Brantley and Riddick.
HOU had Springer and Brantley under contract for 37mil combined for 2020, so a possible Q-offer to both is just a continuation of the existing budget.October 13, 2020 at 5:27 pm #144400
To jj’s point on QO, if I am Brantley and I have a choice between one year at $18.9 MM and three years/$36 MM, the decision would be very easy. I’d take the one year and re-enter the market next fall when this suggested low point is past. All he would need after that is two years, $17.1 MM (or less than $9 MM per) to break even over the three years. Simple decision.
This touches on a very interesting point. If teams believe the market will be low, they may issue fewer qualifying offers. And if players believe the market will be low, they should take most of the QOs. This will be telling to watch unfold.October 13, 2020 at 5:50 pm #144404
Or maybe teams offer more Q-offers to those that are worthy, instead of longer term contracts, just to see how the next CBA unfolds? There are so many ifs, maybes, could be, shouldn’t be that it’s hard to keep track of 🙂October 13, 2020 at 6:08 pm #144406
A great read is a CBS article entitled “What might MLB teams spend in an uncertain off season? Ranking 30 clubs by 2021 payroll situation.”
Noice in the Cardinals section how they refer to a depressed free agent market.October 13, 2020 at 6:53 pm #144408
Derrick Hall, President and CEO of the D-Backs has been quoted as saying it is “far fetched” that the D-Backs will go into 2021 with a similar payroll they entered 2020 with. – Steve Gilbert MLB
Cots shows they were at 155mil in 2018, 138mil in 19′ and 152mil in 2020.
“We’re having to plan for different scenarios of revenue, different scenarios of attendance.” Derrick HallOctober 13, 2020 at 7:09 pm #144412
Thanks for the suggestions.
I am not sure if the D-backs situation is because of COVID or because they had a fairly large payroll only to fall from second place last year to last place in 2020. Likely some of each. I know they shipped out key players at the deadline, including starter Robbie Ray, closer Archie Bradley and outfielder Starling Marte. So it is easy to understand why their payroll will be down in 2021. It feels like rebuilding time in the desert.
Close to home, Bill DeWitt III has also said the Cards are building three cases for next year – business as usual, a partial attendance environment and a “worst case”. My guess is the latter would be a repeat of 2020.
The problem could be that free agent decisions will be required before a team like the Cardinals knows which case it can follow.October 13, 2020 at 7:15 pm #144413
Here is the link to the article bccran mentioned.October 13, 2020 at 7:17 pm #144414
The attendance question remains an unknown, and that drives revenue available to spend. I’d expect owners who have already lost money to follow the “worst case”, until they see differently. If they cried poor over 60 games, imagine how they’d feel about possibly 162 games next season with no or limited attendance.October 13, 2020 at 7:22 pm #144415
I think we also feel the poverty cries were not all that sincere. Remember Ricketts calling the Cubs’ losses “biblical”?
Here is another decision. Despite the 2020 losses, do the owners spend closer to usual with the CBA coming up? Or will they hit the brakes and risk increasing the level of contention with the players heading into a very important negotiating stretch? Everyone loses in a strike.
So many questions…October 13, 2020 at 7:33 pm #144417
Yep, good point. “So many questions” …. when we make out potential 2021 lineups for fun, we’re still unsure about the DH next season. So 2020October 13, 2020 at 9:06 pm #1444231964cardsParticipantPaid - Annual
I am becoming pessimistic as I look towards the 2021 season. I am Assuming there will be a 162 game schedule with limited to no attendance. Given this, it feels Like the Front Office could use 2021 as a transition year … hoping to nab a playoff spot.
A. Burn thru veteran contracts – Carpenter, Fowler and Miller … frees up approximately $45m for 2022
B. Offer one year “Encore Performances“ with incentive contracts – Molina & Wainright … frees up $25+m in 2022 when compared to 2020 full season contracts
C. Use season as one final Stress Test for young outfielders remaining on the roster – Bader, O’Neill and/or Thomas … Carlson plays every day
D. Stress Test Candidates for 2022 Rotation
E. Let Miller and Weiters walk.
F. Use Cecil and Leake money (and money not used for encore performances) to cover arbitration increases.
I cannot imagine a scenario worse than this. However, I am sure the Front Office is capable of surprising me.October 13, 2020 at 9:26 pm #144428
1964, are we officially done cutting paychecks to Cecil and Leake?October 13, 2020 at 9:42 pm #1444301964cardsParticipantPaid - Annual
According to Baseball Reference and Cots baseball contracts the Cardinals have no further financial commitments for Cecil ($7.3m) or Leake ($4m). I just realized I missed the $1m Gregerson buyout the Cards paid in 2020. So, I am estimating these three changes free up $12.3m for 2021 when compared to 2020.October 13, 2020 at 10:05 pm #144433
Thanks 1964. That is good news. Perhaps the Cardinals have paid more money for less production in their history than they paid for Cecil, but nobody comes to mind. Surely he had some productive moments that helped us win games, but I can’t honestly say I recall any. Dewitt’s stomach will surely feel a little better now. I cannot imagine cutting checks of that size to someone who brought so little to the franchise.
At least Leake had a brief moment or two of production. But winning never seemed to mean much to him. Very laid back attitude. Fowler falls into this category as well imo. I can’t imagine Dewitt has a warm and fuzzy feeling cutting that huge paycheck every couple of weeks.
Carpenter had some good years before he became obsessed with launch angle. He’s been a Mendoza line hitter for going on 3 years now, and I think Dewitt is on the hook for a 4th year of huge paychecks to Carp for little to no production in 2021. That is alka-seltzer city for the next 12 months if you are the owner.
Considering all the other absurd contracts, the $1 million buyout to Gregerson (who brought us nothing) probably felt like chump change to Dewitt.
No fans, or a fraction of fans, is a very real possibility in 2021. That hurts revenue. Another alka-seltzer moment if you are an owner facing the prospect of paying huge contracts to unproductive players.
Things are about to get real.October 14, 2020 at 9:28 am #144467gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
From what I have read I think there is very little chance that full attendance is allowed on April 1. Most medical experts think a vaccine could be approved in January or February but it could be June or July until it is distributed out to most of the general public, therefore, we are probably looking at half of the season at limited revenue and half of the season at full revenue.
To think that most teams are going to spend what they would in a normal year seems very unlikely to me. I expect another very cold “hot stove.”October 14, 2020 at 9:34 am #144468
Perhaps the ridiculous contracts like the one given to Betts are a thing of the past.October 14, 2020 at 10:20 am #144478gscottarParticipantPaid - Annual
To my knowledge this has never been confirmed but speculation is that the terms on the Betts contract were verbally agreed to before covid exploded but all of the t’s and i’s weren’t completed until later and the Dodgers decided not to back out of the deal because they didn’t want to alienate their star player. The point being is that other star players may not get the same kind of treatment until full revenue is restored.October 14, 2020 at 8:44 pm #144543October 14, 2020 at 9:24 pm #144546
Brantley, Peterson, Lindor, yada, yada, yada.
Perhaps we are barking up the wrong tree.
Does the salary cap apply to General Managers? If not, and I were Dewitt, I would throw some major money at the Tampa Bay GM. Tampa is not a baseball town. Surely that guy would rather ply his trade in St. Louis.
Discard the Alka-Seltzer that’s needed for cutting paychecks to Cecil, Carpenter, Gregerson, Fowler, et al and start getting some bang for your buck.
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