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Where did you get your numbers?
Tyler O’Neill had a 27.3% K-rate in AAA-Tacoma and a 26.7% K-rate for AAA-Memphis, then a 15.4% K-rate in the playoffs. Total K-rate of 26.1% (missing, however, is his BB-rate of 9.5% which makes the K-rate okay imo, unlike for someone like Grichuk or DeJong.
Adolis Garcia is not yet on the 40-man roster and has less than 150 plate appearances at Memphis. He shouldn’t be on a rotation to StL anytime soon.
Unless an outfielder gets hurt and there are real at-bats, I would not rotate these (or any) prospects to sit on the bench for three weeks at a time and get three to five plate appearances per week.
Pads, the correct K rate for O’Neill in 2017 is 27.1%. Better but not appreciably. Thanks for getting me to relook at the data.
Well, I would assume they would get at least 1 AB every other game (pinch hitting) that they did not play.
I would also assume we would give each starting OF one day off per week (though Ozuna is not used to that).
Let’s say that is 12 AB’s and 27 innings in the field per week for one third of the season, at a minimum. Plus, they might be late game defensive substitutions…giving them extra field work and AB’s.
You also have Fowler and Pham with chronic injury concerns.
I also don’t think Grichuk’s full AAA numbers after getting sent down in 2016 and 2017 should be compared to O’Neill at his point in his career.
I’m not particularly fond of Bader or O’Neill starting the year in the majors either, but I do think they are ready, if not extremely close.
The one big conclusion we can make from everything mentioned here is that the downgrade from Grichuk to either Bader or O’Neill is not very large and especially won’t be two-three months into the year. Grichuk loses a lot of value if he’s used as a 4th outfielder. He can be marketed right now as a potential starter or platoon partner.
Further, why do you think Grichuk would get more than three to five plate appearances per week, but the prospects wouldn’t? Or maybe I misunderstood. Heck, Bader got 90 PAs in two months in the majors in 2017, which is more than double that 5 PAs per week.
When guys have injuries and go on the DL, of course, call one up. I don’t think there is any disagreement about that.
I just suspect that even if there is an injury in the OF, Grichuk and/or Martinez will play regularly and the call-up will sit.
Last year, there were a lot of OF injuries except for Pham, so there were more at-bats. Like I said, if there are injuries in 2018, then of course call them up. I am just against the rookies being on the bench with a full-strength St. Louis roster. I am not assuming Grichuk or anyone else is traded until it actually happens. I deal in what we know now, which may not be the same assumption others are going by.
In the data presented, I did not cherry pick the good or bad Double-A or Triple-A at-bats. I included them all. Anything else would not be honest, IMO.
Martinez is the big question mark here as well. Is his bat for real? Is his defense that atrocious? If Fowler isn’t playing next to him, does his defense improve with the better range of Pham/Grichuk/Ozuna manning CF?
Martinez and Bader crush LH pitching, which make them good options for giving the starters days off, platooning, and pinch-hitting, but not as longer-term injury-replacements or regular starters.
I really only very, very rarely cite their projections in my articles. When the new projections are posted, I call attention to it here as a interesting discussion topic.
If I really cared, I would go back and audit it after the fact for accuracy. And then I would decide how much I would back it. As you know, the world is full of projections, but very few actually come back around to assess how they did when the season is over.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/outs_above_average
I went to this site and found the results to be incredible. Maybe we need to start a Dexter Fowler trade thread. Fowler= 203rd out of 207… he’s in some sweet company there. Who is in charge of vetting free agents anyway? The money and the length of his contract is now a real problem.
What about trading Grichuk for Hunter Strickland of the Giants?
Seems like a fair trade to me. Strickland has four years of control compared to Grichuk’s three but Strickland is older. He seems to be a solid 7th or 8th inning guy. Wouldn’t solve our closer need though.
If the Giants are that desperate for another OF how about propose a trade of Fowler for Samardjia? Who says no?
The money for the two players is similar. Samardjia would replace Lynn in the rotation. We could then try to trade for Yelich and Colome and call it done.
I’d do it. Would the Giants?
They don’t have many options to add power AND get a CF. They don’t want to give up draft picks for Lorenzo Cain. Jarrod Dyson has never had more than 400 PA’s or hit more than 5 HR’s in a season, though he is much better defensively.
All the other CF’s have a MUCH lower SLG% AND have worse defensive ratings than Grichuk.
I would think the Giants would jump at the chance to make that trade. The Cardinals could probably get a prospect or two from them as well.
Martinez is the big question mark here as well. Is his bat for real? Is his defense that atrocious? If Fowler isn’t playing next to him, does his defense improve with the better range of Pham/Grichuk/Ozuna manning CF?
Martinez and Bader crush LH pitching, which make them good options for giving the starters days off, platooning, and pinch-hitting, but not as longer-term injury-replacements or regular starters.
I think Martinez’ bat is for real, and yes, he crushes LH pitchers. Great as a backup 1B/pinch hitter, will never be a regular. May be able to trade him to an AL team that needs a cost effective DH (Rays). Having watched Martinez in the OF, yes, his defense is atrocious.
I’d like to see more from Bader – develop him as the 4th OF, see if he can cut down his K% at the major league level. I still think he can develop into a regular, but the toughest leap is from AAA to MLB
Yeah, Hamilton’s defense is superior, but his OBP is about the same and he has no power.
The Reds also want Heliot Ramos, who is the one untouchable in the Giants system.
If the Cardinals could get Strickland and Bryan Reynolds, or Strickland with Shaun Anderson & DJ Snelten, then it would probably be considered a better trade for the Giants and the Cardinals would be improving themselves now and in the future.
Why trade Grichuk? Fowler has foot problems and a crappy contract.Pham has yet to prove he is more than a one-hit wonder and has a lengthy injury/vision history and Jose martinez is a poor OF .Grichuk is your best backup option .O`Neill and Bader and Jose Adolis Garcia should be starting OF at AAA Memphis.Grichuk can play all 3 OF spots pretty well .
The Cardinals seemed to make clear at the end of the year they were moving on from Grichuk because he hasn’t improved as a hitter. Maybe that has changed and they see him as a great 4th OF.
Trading him would bring back either a reliever, prospects or both.
If you don’t trade him, how do you ever see if the guys in AAA can handle MLB?
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