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Shady wrote:
I like the way Donovan, Nootbaar and Burleson compete when they have two strikes on them. Some of the players seem to go down feebly, too often, when they have two strikes.
*Sigh* Another fact-free attempt to smuggle Burleson into a grouping/designation to which he plainly doesn’t belong.
With 2-Strikes (2023)
Nootbaar: .181/.303/.312/.615; 57 tOPS+; 136 sOPS+
Donovan: .173/.275/.276/.551; 41 tOPS+; 112 sOPS+
Burleson: .168/.248/.219/.467; 39 tOPS+; 80 sOPS+Some other regulars, for comparison/context:
Walker: .190/.272/.340/.612; 56 tOPS+; 134 sOPS+
Goldschmidt: .189/.281/.307/.588; 46 tOPS+; 125 sOPS+
Contreras: .183/.270/.309/.579; 42 tOPS+; 122 sOPS+
Gorman: .149/.249/.324/.573; 44 tOPS+; 119 sOPS+
Carlson: .178/.285/.263/.547; 69 tOPS+; 111 sOPS+
Arenado: .196/.239/.303/.542; 42 tOPS+; 107 sOPS+
Edman: .178/.248/.238/.485; 40 tOPS+; 87 sOPS+Who are these unnamed players who “seem to go down feebly, too often, when they have two strikes?” Name some names. Because the actual numbers say every regular on the Cardinals roster hit better with 2 strikes than Burleson, including Tommy Edman. Burleson was 20% worse than league average with 2 strikes–if that’s “good,” what does “bad” look like?
Note:
tOPS+: OPS for split relative to player’s overall OPS (less than 100 equals worse performance in split than overall)
sOPS+: OPS for split relative to MLB Average OPS for split (less than 100 equal worse than MLB average in split)Sometimes, you just have to trust your eyes. I see too many bad swings, resulting in strikeouts, from some hitters when they have two strikes. Ex. Gorman, Goldschmidt, Arenado and Walker. Not so much from Donovan and Burleson.
And before anyone asks, I didn’t do 2024 because the overall sample size is incredibly small, making the splits even more microscopic. These stats are pretty meaningless at this juncture. But if you’re curious, a summary view:
2024 With 2-Strikes (sOPS+)
Donovan: 244
Winn: 189
Contreras: 188
Arenado: 143
Gorman: 94
Herrera: 60
Walker: 40
Burleson: 26
Goldschmidt:4Again, I wouldn’t put any weight in those numbers, but they do go to show that even if one were to limit the discussion to the tiny 2024 sample, Shady’s assertion that Burleson somehow “competes” better than “some of the players [who] seem to go down feebly, too often, when they have two strikes” is baseless (although at least technically you could say that Burleson has “competed” better with 2 strikes than exactly one regular thus far).
Sometimes, you just have to trust your eyes. I see too many bad swings, resulting in strikeouts, from some hitters when they have two strikes. Ex. Gorman, Goldschmidt, Arenado and Walker. Not so much from Donovan and Burleson.
So once again, completely ignore the mountains of directly-on-point research and data provided by other posters and just take your word for it, even though you have absolutely no evidence to support your view whatsoever. More constructive, good faith, give-and-take “baseball talk” . . .
How does Burleson’s strikeout rate stack up on the team? I have a feeling he may have the lowest K rate on the team. At least it seems that way.
How does Burleson’s strikeout rate stack up on the team?
I’m not going to do any more work/research for you–everyone can see you operate in bad faith and will just blithely ignore the research, analysis, and data provided by others if they don’t confirm whatever it is you want to believe. You’re welcome to look up your own stats and actually do some honest research to support (or, even better, falsify) your own views–I think you’ll find if you take it upon yourself to support your claims with evidence/analysis/data and actually engage with other posters and their substantive arguments in good faith, you will get a much better response.
Yep RBK when I started looking things up before I opened my mouth it was life changing. Google is the greatest invention since the microwave. We can still have our opinions, it’s just easier to make a case when you aren’t dead wrong.
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I think. To my eyes that. Mark Whitten was the greatest slugger ever. Remember that 4 homer, “game”, against the Yankees I think it was and as I remember.
Greater than Babe. Or Bonds or Aaron. At least to me. 4 homers in one game. No one can do that. As I remember it.
In Burleson’s case, I don’t really care what the numbers say. I just enjoy watching him compete at the plate. It wouldn’t make much difference who he played for.
Fine. Everyone can ignore the friend of a poster here (his name escapes me) who is a prominent Red Sox scout who advised that Burly was a top flight MLB hitter.
Performance data aside, you “malcontents” just refuse to acknowledge real talent.
Please try to refrain from being indignant here. It’s leaning in that direction by some again. There’s no need for it. I enjoy the way Burleson competes. Others, obviously, don’t. But don’t let it get personal.
I watched it on TV and it was at Riverfront against the Reds. Another 4 HR game that I watched that involved the Cardinals/Reds was more recent. The great Scooter Gennett tatered up 4 times against the Cardinals in June of ’17 at GABP. I remember thinking to myself, “How in the heck do you let a guy named “Scooter” smack you around for 4 HR’s…Haha!
Well Mr Shafy, I am happy that you enjoy watching Burleson compete. After all, baseball IS entertainment.
Quick question though, if I may?
Have you also enjoyed eatching Burleson FAIL for 3 straight MLB seasons? Because the available data confirms that he is a below-average mlb hitter in his career and a huge failure at the plate.
In Burleson’s case, I don’t really care what the numbers say. I just enjoy watching him compete at the plate. It wouldn’t make much difference who he played for.
Then why are you constantly fishing for other people to provide you with stats that you hope will buttress Burleson’s resume? I mean, if you “don’t really care what the numbers say,” then why did you just ask me to do research and provide data about his relative K%?
The reality is you “don’t really care what the numbers say” when they don’t support or, even worse, directly contradict what you want to believe. But if the numbers in any way tend to support your preferred narrative, you suddenly care a lot about what they say. Just like you told everyone to ignore Burleson’s prior 441 PAs because it was “too early” to draw any conclusions, but then were back on here last night drawing a bunch of conclusions based on a whopping 7 PAs. It’s the definition of bad faith.
How about, I express what I like about Burleson if I choose to? If you don’t like his performance. Express that, if you so choose. However, please refrain from the personal insinuations directed toward other posters.
I was interested, so I decided to look into the question of K% in 2-strike counts and how it correlates with production in that split:
2023 K% w/ 2-strikes (sOPS+)
Burleson: 29.2% (80)
Donovan: 29.8% (112)
Arenado: 33.6% (107)
Carlson: 35.8% (111)
Edman: 37.8% (87)
Nootbaar: 37.9% (136)
Goldy: 40.0% (125)
Contreras: 42.9% (122)
Walker: 46.4% (134)
Gorman: 54.2% (119)This is an admittedly small sample of just 10 players–far from comprehensive–but what I find interesting about this particular list is it seems to indicate that at least for the 2023 Cardinals, a low K% with 2-strikes was not very predictive of strong offensive production in that split. Some of the best OPS+ performances were by the players with relatively high K-rates, while the 5 players with the lowest K-rates ranked 10th, 6th, 8th, 7th, and 9th in sOPS+. This is a point we have covered with Burleson several times before: strikeout avoidance per se is not necessarily synonymous with production. Would be interesting to run this sort of analysis across multiple years for all of MLB and see what the results look like.
ok.. Didn’t see anything personal. But you are doubling down on poor hitting which is your prerogative. You like Burleson. Got it. Pretty sure we can revisit in a few months. Keep defending him, and people will refute it until he breaks out and acts like a MLB DH for an extended period.
The many Cardinals hitters strikeouts are going to be a “burr in the saddle” for the Cardinals again this season. That is one of the reasons I like Burleson in the lineup. At least vs RHP. Consistent contact. What’s the old baseball saying? “Put the ball in play and good things can happen”.
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But Mr Shady, RBK just showed you that NOT striking out does not necessarily lead to production. I’m not sure how you can ignore facts so consistently?
I don’t care if Burleson strikes out 200 times a year IF he has a .950 OPS or hits 45 dingers. Conversely, I don’t care if he never strikes out again, if he can’t get his OPS above .650.
“Put the ball in play and good things can happen”.
Yep, making out(s) over 70% of the time with an 81 OPS+. Lots of good things happening . . .
Strikeout Minimization /= Production.
Glad to see the powers that be(Brian, BicycleMike, UCONN…..and hopefully one day, Scotty) grant some leeway with this ever-popular thread. As long as there’s no profanity or vulgarity, every board needs that one and only one thread where posters can feel free to blow off a little steam, argue and even engage in some super mild name calling if warranted. I haven’t checked in years, but I know these sort of threads used to exist at the Reds board, Brewers board, Phillies board and cubbies bored.
When Edman and Carlson return. If the Cardinals want to send Burleson back down to AAA. What does he have to proove at AAA? Other than trying to hit with more power. Though he’s already done that at AAA. Through his agent, Burleson needs to request a trade to a team needing some offense. A team with some possible openings in the starting lineup. Like the Marlins. He might get some interest because of his age, hitting potential and options left. I’m pretty sure all the anti Burleson posters would be relieved that Burleson is gone. Personally, I’d like to see Burly traded to the Cubs. He might just thrive at Wrigley. He hits quite a few balls at Busch that would be home runs at Wrigley Field.
Oli’s admiration and love for Burleson hitting prowess is evident in 4 straight Days of no starts vs. the “Stout RHP”
At this rate, Burleson will never be able to join his fellow “Pure Hitters” in Cooperstown.
Burleson has no trade value, at least not enough to warrant himself as the center piece of a trade. He would have to settle for being an additional piece, much like John King or Matt Svanson.
Shady wrote: “When Edman and Carlson return. If the Cardinals want to send Burleson back down to AAA. What does he have to proove at AAA? Other than trying to hit with more power.”
The answer is actually pretty clear. He needs to demonstrate better process and peripherals that will translate into improved and more sustainable results: better plate discipline, a significantly lower chase-rate, a higher BB%, deeper counts, and NOT swinging at pitchers’ pitches early in the count (even when they’re strikes). All of these process improvements should result in higher sustainable OBP at any given level of BABIP, as well as better ISO/power as he looks for and gets better pitches to drive and spits on the marginal or outright bad pitches on which he so often gets himself out.
And, as I’ve noted to you previously, his 2022 season at AAA Memphis was aided by a .350 BABIP, a number he hasn’t come remotely close to at any other level. And his OPS falloff between AAA and MLB is consistent with the range of falloffs we’ve seen for other Cardinals prospects who had significant time in Memphis before being promoted to MLB.
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