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Goldy move is a great move, and they’ll probably do everything they can to extend him. They gave up some excellent talent for him and would like a good return. More than just one year. Harper is way too much of a risk for the dollars involved.
While I can see the benefit of signing a 26 year old to a long contract over a 30, 31, or 32 year old to a long contract, I still have questions about Harper. Is the team that signs him going to get the Harper who hit .220 with 25 home runs over 450 PAs? Or will it be the one who hit .303/.437/.538/.975 with 9 HRs in his last 245 PAs?
Looking at OPS, he has had 2 great years, 1 very good year and 2 above average years in his last 5 years. While his age and some of his history points to the probability he will be a very good to great hitter, he only had a 116 OPS+ in 2016. That leads me to be a little cautious with him.
His salary could be a major problem if he doesn’t perform to expectations. That could be something that would hurt the team for many years to come. If the Cardinals could sign him to an AAV of $35 million for up to 8 years, I would be all over him. I don’t think that is enough to get it done, though.
Hasn’t it been proven statistically that most big ticket long term contracts in MLB haven’t worked out? Why take a risk to try to beat the odds?
Bryce’s PA’s bother me. Just three of the last six seasons he’s been a qualifier. For a player who’s youth is supposed to be a major asset…. why all the missed time?
Long term red flag, pass on the mega deal.
Harper messing with anxious fans…
https://nypost.com/2018/12/24/bryce-harper-drops-clue-that-dodgers-favorites-to-sign-him/
One might certainly believe that the Dodgers trade with the Reds was clearing the deck to sign Harper. BTW, I don’t blame them for unloading the volatile Puig.
Harper was spotted reading the LA real estate pages. Hasn’t Puig had some success against the Cards? Hasn’t he calmed down a bit? I don’t think he is relishing the LA to CIN thing. Cincinnati hasn’t been the “Queen City” in 40 years. Au contraire.
Puig has a .305 BA against the Cards with 6 homers in 109 PAs. Good, but not devastating, like Goldy’s numbers vs. the Cubs, for example. Interestingly, Puig has not been good at his new home, Great American Launching Pad. IMO, the Reds now have a chance to put the Pirates in last place. Those suggesting they are now contenders, however, are really, really optimistic.
Unless Puig and Kemp can pitch they are only going to help the Reds so much. They may have several 15-14 games.
Wood and Puig are the difference makers. Kemp as a platton bat vs lhp’s. Winker and Schebler both have to start vs rhps.
Wood is a middle of the rotation pitcher at best, when healthy. If he is their ace then the scoreboard operator at GAB is going to be busy.
Woods #1 similarity score at BR, by career numbers, is Carlos Martinez.
Woods career GB% (50%) should play well at GABP.
I’ve heard Kluber talk to Cincy and I would say his acquisition would stunt Cincys rebuild. Short term rentals like Wood, or Bucholz seems like better targets. Hold on to Senzel to replace FA-to-be Gennett, and keep the rest of a trade package for Kluber.
Many fans elsewhere judge the Cincy roster construction as potential contenders, and bash them for acquiring. Too early……
Too early on the win curve to be purchasing Kluber types. Puig / Wood types I view as short term bridges to their future core and if they can win at a higher %, for their fans, even better.
Trade chips at the next deadline, or Q-offers could help the rebuild.
bccran
Hasn’t it been proven statistically that most big ticket long term contracts in MLB haven’t worked out? Why take a risk to try to beat the odds?
There has rarely been someone so young enter free agency so early.
Those of you on the Reds bandwagon are going to be disappointed. Yes they have upgraded their offense and they will score some runs but their pitching still stinks. This trade with the Dodgers was all about generating some buzz and selling tickets. The first part of that equation has been achieved apparently.
Just to reiterate, this perceived age benefit is based on hope that Harper’s best years are ahead, therefore justifying his contract. That could occur, but it may not occur. As I showed in detail, he is not on that trajectory. His one and only superstar season to date was back in 2015. IMO, it is shaping up to be too much money and too many years to pin on hope he will become something he has not been in other than in one season some time ago now.
Veering off track… We know that other franchises can and will take more risk on a bad contract. Heck, Theo has based his career on it, as he has benefited from owners willing to overspend. He has his rings and no one can take them away, but I have more respect for what Billy Beane has accomplished over the years with far less, for example.
gscottar, FWIW, I agree with you on the Reds. They may even have a winning streak early in the season and the stories will flow about the brilliance of their immediate rebuild. Soon enough, reality will set in. I would still place significant money on the three being traded by July 31.
No way Kemp gets a qualifying offer. Wood and Puig might if they stay healthy. If I was the Reds I would try to flip Wood before the season starts. I’d let Puig see if he could inflate his stats in GABP. Kemp as well.
Both Goldschmidt and Miller are quality, high in character individuals. Would much rather have them than others.
This trade for Cincy was about dumping homer bailey for useful pieces, at the expense of a couple decent suspects.
Huge win.
It’s a rare trade indeed where BOTH teams end up getting the short end of the stick. This Dodgers-Reds trade may very turn out to be one of these.
Good one, Pugs, but I do think if the Reds play it right, they will end up with a half-dozen prospects after having given up only two. That is how tanking, er… rebuilding teams roll.
gscottar
Those of you on the Reds bandwagon are going to be disappointed. Yes they have upgraded their offense and they will score some runs but their pitching still stinks. This trade with the Dodgers was all about generating some buzz and selling tickets. The first part of that equation has been achieved apparently.
The Reds had two young starters last year that did alright in Castillo and Mahle. They have DeSclafani and Romano at the backend. They’ve added Alex Wood and Tanner Roark. That’s not a bad group of dependable starters. Their bullpen is quite good with Garrett, Lorenzen, Hughes, Hernandez, and Iglesias. They are not as far away as you think.
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