Brad Miller Signing

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  • #122284
    Avatarbccran
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    Just thinking outside the box, onyx. Several things. First, the Cards went with young guys Grichuk, Piscotty, Diaz, Adams, etc. and it cost them trips to the playoffs.
    Now they’re going to try it again with Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, etc.
    That concerns me. I like young guys as much as anyone, but fed in one or two at at time. In 2015, Miller hit 30 home runs and drove in 81 for Tampa Bay. Last season, in only 170 plate appearances he had 13 home runs and drove in 25. He’s played over 100 major league games
    in the OF. Edman? He has the speed and smarts to play CF and there’s no reason he can’t learn to play that position in the future. I’ve been intrigued ever since the Cardinals played him there out of the blue in a game last season.

    #122285
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Miller also gives us a LHB off the bench not named Weiters, when Edman starts. The only other 40man option would have been Williams. It was a RHB bench, before Miller, because I see Edman starting a lot.

    #122287
    Avatarbccran
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    Got a chuckle out of a comment another poster made – “In 2020 the Cardinals bench may out hit the regulars.”

    #122293
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran said:

    First, the Cards went with young guys Grichuk, Piscotty, Diaz, Adams, etc. and it cost them trips to the playoffs.
    Now they’re going to try it again with Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, etc.
    That concerns me. I like young guys as much as anyone, but fed in one or two at at time.

    Bader is hardly a young guy. He has 925 career MLB plate appearances, or close to two full seasons. Edman is a young guy, however – and he turned out fine – when he got a chance.

    As you have brought this up before, I also still do not understand the logic that equates prior and current players. In this case, O’Neill and Thomas to Grichuk, Piscotty and others. Until they actually get a chance, no one knows which ones will succeed and which will not. For example, at this time last year, no one, and I mean NO ONE, expected Edman to emerge like he did.

    If both Thomas and O’Neill start, for example, that would be “feeding in two young guys”, which would fit within the acceptable criteria you defined. If one or both of them stumble as the season progresses (or Fowler does), Carlson should be right behind.

    As I wrote earlier, I believe the Cardinals will be in some trouble if Miller is needed to play every day. Respectfully, that he was good offensively as an everyday player back in 2015 means very little in 2020.

    #122295
    Avatarbccran
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    I guess I’m just cautious about guys who have a hole in their swing, go after high 4 seams and low sliders away. Edman’s slash line at Memphis was .308/.363/.483/.846. He struck out 44 times in 294 PAs. I’m not sure his success at the major league level was that much of a surprise.

    #122296
    Avatargscottar
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    Like someone else mentioned earlier this gives the Cardinals a lot of flexibility. Miller and Edman can play all over the field subbing for whoever is struggling at the plate. Shildt should have hundreds of different lineup scenarios.

    While some of us wanted Joc Pederson I guess Miller is a cheaper option but with similar pop in the bat.

    #122297
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    BMiller in limited time actually led PHI in SLG and OPS. In ’19, 20 of his 40 hits were XBH including the 13 HRs.
    Since his “D” isn’t that good, does he qualify as a solid SS backup?
    2019 Games by Position: 2B (13) 3B (19) SS (1) LF (16) RF (1)

    Is it Ravelo on the ropes then since BMiller can also play in the OF? At 6’2″/215 is Miller a candidate to learn 1B? It could still be Sosa on the 26-man.

    I like the LHB with pop and he will add to the competition for the younger INF guys.

    ps. like the two lineups that STL-25 put up. Edman starting in both.

    #122315
    AvatarCards667
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    Trade
    1)Wong and Poncedeleon to Oakland for some minor league pitching.

    2) Hou gets: Martinez, O’Neill, Capel from STL
    LAA get: Reddick and cash from HOU
    LAD get: minor leaguers from HOU and another from LAA
    STL gets: Pederson, Stripling, Raley, maybe a minor leaguer too from LAD

    Wong alone covers the Pederson and Stipling money. Martinez clears money and future money for other flexibility, Arenado maybe…

    Fowler – LF (S)
    Pederson – RF (L)
    Goldschmidt – 1B (R)
    DeJong – SS (R)
    Carpenter – 3B (L)
    Edman – 2B (S)
    Molina – C (R)
    Bader – CF (R)

    Miller-UTIL(L), Munoz-UTIL(R), Thomas-OF(R), Ravelo-1B/LF(R), Weiters-C(S)

    Flaherty, Mikilas, Hudson, Kim, Wainwright
    Stripling, Reyes, Webb, Gant, Brebbia, Helsley, Miller, Gallegos

    If Bader struggles then Raley/Thomas platoon in RF, moving Pederson to CF, or Carlson could be possibilities. Thomas can get AB in RF with Pederson too who struggles vs LHP.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 2 weeks ago by AvatarCards667.
    #122330
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    667, you may get better reaction to your trade suggestion by putting it in the “Trade Ideas” thread pinned to the top of the board. That is a special thread we have here where anyone can post their proposed deals and others comment. Thanks.

    #122332
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    C667, I don’t see how that trade makes the Cards any better, either short or long term. Basically you’re trading 2 years of Wong, 2-4 years of Cmart, 5 years of O’Neill and a 5 years of Ponce for one year each of Pederson and Stripling, plus a corner OF/1B guy who’s old for his level and hasn’t been great?

    Put another way, just the MLB guys alone you’re giving up (I’m going to conservatively estimate) 6 wins of Wong, 6 wins of Cmart, 7.5 wins of Tyler, 2.5 wins of Ponce for what…4 wins of Pederson and 2 of Stripling, at best? The prospects better be amazing cause that’s a net -16 wins, *conservatively*.

    #122333
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #122348
    AvatarCards667
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    1 year of Wong. No way I’d pick up that option. I’ve never been a huge fan of his at all and Edman is a cheaper and a better option.
    Martinez is a good, but the heath questions are concerning. If they can get out of that contract it wouldn’t be the worst thing. Especially for using the money elsewhere when they have bad unmovable contracts with no trades in Carpenter and Fowler. I’m not real sold that Goldschmidt’s contract isn’t going to be a hindrance sooner rather than later either.
    I’m not sold on O’Neill either, the team control doesn’t concern me with him when I don’t think he can hack it as an everyday player and others can fill the 4th OF role.
    Ponce was a guy I added because he again doesn’t have a role on the team and there are other options for his partime role and OAK could have more need for him now and value him more than he is in STL.
    They need to replace some slugging lost in Ozuna. They need LH bats. I’m not saying my hypothetical idea is the best out there or they could do. But this current OF looks shakey at best and cost effective to ownership that said they aren’t spending anymore money. I’d rather have Edman everyday at 2B than Wong. I’d rather have Pederson than O’Neill especially in a win this season situation. Stripling as the long man vs Ponce is whatever. And clear out Martinez money and question marks while adding 3-4 prospects for the future or a other trade.

    #122349
    Avatar858booyah
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    No need to Put Pederson in any trade discussion currently because we got Miller. This was the type of guy they wanted the last couple offseasons.

    Could see Edman and Miller more about hedging bets on a couple players bounce backs. If Edman plays a lot and Miller more than he usually does it likely means it’s either due to injury or a couple of bats we depended on didn’t pan out.

    Miller is a Lefty bat of the bench and spot starter against Righties. That’s what he should be.

    #122358
    BlackHillsCardBlackHillsCard
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    If Miller plays a significant amount of time in the infield it would completely go against the Cardinals using defense as a key to a successful season. Have I stressed enough how bad he is defensively? He has a negative DRS in every position he has played except LF. His most prominent position, shortstop, has horrible defensive numbers. Maybe Oquendo can help with that but I don’t think it would be enough to turn a negative into a positive. At most a negative into less a negative.

    #122360
    Avatarbccran
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    I know that AAA numbers don’t always equate to MLB numbers, but since the Cards like to build from within, lets see how some players compare in their time at AAA –

    Grichuk – .262/.311/.517/.828/23.3% K rate
    Piscotty – .283/.362/.446/.808/13.7% K rate
    Bader – .275/.345/.465/.810/24.8% K rate
    O’Neill – .276/.339/.554/.893/27.5% K rate
    Edman – .308/.363/.483/.846/15.5% K rate
    Thomas – .270/.342/.472/.814/26.0 K rate

    Is it fair to say that there is somewhat the same risk with Bader, O’Neill, and Thomas as there was with
    Grichuk? DeJong is at SS, Wong is at 2B, and Montero and Gorman are on the horizon for 3B. That’s why I’d like to see Edman get some more time in the OF. And really glad that they signed Dean and
    Miller as shorter term fillers.

    #122362
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    One can mine data depending on the point one is trying to make. I will do my comparison to successful Cardinals.

    But first, 65 points of OPS (difference between O’Neill and Grichuk) is significant to me.

    Wong’s Triple-A OPS was .884, comparable to O’Neill. DeJong’s was .917. Again, O’Neill is closer to him than he is to Grichuk. Matt Carpenter’s Triple-A OPS was .868, and like Wong, it is lower than O’Neill.

    Thomas did not have a great 2019 at Triple-A (including injury), but was strong at Double-A and excellent in his St. Louis debut last summer. I’d like to see if he has more of that.

    I agree with you that Edman will get time in the outfield. I just don’t see him as a regular out there and certainly not as the starter in CF. But it is great to have him. If others get injured or stumble, Shildt knows he can play him.

    Time will tell who steps up.

    #122366
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    It would be nice to have a bench guy who has caught in the past so they could use Weiters as a PH and use how SH ability without risking being without a catcher. I can’t think of any, but has anyone else on the 40 man ever caught before? I wonder how Edman would do back there….

    I think it’s fair to assume this is the bench now barring injuries.
    – Weiters
    – Edman
    – Bader or Thomas (hopeful Thomas gets a shot to start in CF)
    – Miller
    – Ravelo, Sosa and Munoz fighting for the 5th spot?

    #122367
    Avatarbccran
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    I have a question, Brian. If the Cardinals didn’t think Edman was a possibility for OF, why did they play him there in 2019? Just so he could be a “super sub”? I was shocked to see him playing in CF that one game. It really started the conjuring juices flowing. though. He may just be a player you want to start. And if he’s going to be blocked downstream at 1B, 2B, SS, and 3B, where are you going to start him?

    And as far as O’Neill. Sure he had a very high OPS. He’s capable of crushing the ball. But do we want an all or nothing guy in the lineup? A guy who has strikeoutitis?
    A game is won often by the small little things done well, not just the big bomb. That’s why I like Edman. If OPS is the end all, though, then I guess so be it.

    Here are O’Neill’s strike outs to PAs coming through the system –

    Rookie – 24%
    A – 32%
    A+ – 31%
    AA – 27%
    AAA – 27%
    MLB – 38%

    By the way, Wong’s strike out rate in the time he spent at Memphis was 13%.

    #122369
    AvatarGameCard
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    Edman is not a bench player! Why would say our best player in 2019 is a bench player? It makes no sense.

    #122370
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    bccran asked:

    I have a question, Brian. If the Cardinals didn’t think Edman was a possibility for OF, why did they play him there in 2019? Just so he could be a “super sub”?

    Actually it was two questions. 😉

    1) I am confused. We both seemed to agree that Edman will play in the OF in 2020. As I wrote yesterday, it could be even more now that Miller is on the team. Perhaps the difference is that you may see Edman as an OF regular. I do not. I predict the starting OF will be O’Neill or Thomas, Bader and Fowler.

    2) Yes. If everyone else is healthy and productive, “super sub” is the role Edman may play.

    P.S. And before long, Carlson will be ready – and when he is ready and the Cardinals are ready for him, he will be a regular in the outfield. May or June seems quite probable.

    #122371
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    OPS is not the end all, but it is convenient. OPS adds two stats whose values are not even.

    How valuable is a .400 OBP relative to league average?
    How valuable is a .400 SLG% relative to league average?

    OBP should be weighted heavier, which is why Grichuks .311 above is what stands out for me (in a bad way) when comparing those outfielders.

    #122375
    AvatarGameCard
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    The starting OF should be:
    LF-Edman or O’Neill
    CF-Bader/Thomas
    RF-Edman or Fowler

    #122376
    AvatarCariocaCardinal
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    Chitown, why is Ravelo fighting for the 26th spot but Dean isn’t? Similar major league stats. Dean younger and better AAA stats.

    #122377
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Miller getting in extra work at shortstop with Oquendo this morning.

    #122382
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Although Miller is probably a solid bench player, it certainly looks like the Cards don’t trust Edman at SS. That or they fully expect Carpenter and/or Fowler to flop and they’ll need Tommy elsewhere.

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