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Here’s their top five. Others can fill in the rest if they’d like.
1. Jordan Walker OF
2. Tink Hence RHP
3. Masyn Winn SS
4. Matthew Liberatore LHP
5. Cooper Hjerpe LHPI look forward to seeing what happens once they face high level competition. Besides Liberatore I mean, we already saw it with him.
“Here’s their top five. Others can fill in the rest if they’d like.
1. Jordan Walker OF
2. Tink Hence RHP
3. Masyn Winn SS
4. Matthew Liberatore LHP
5. Cooper Hjerpe LHP”Thanks, Brian. Interesting that they like Hjerpe enough to jump him over a trio of guys they ranked in their overall top 100 last August. (Graceffo, Burleson, and Herrera, I believe.)
Funny how stubborn they’re being with Liberatore, and yet how they’ve also sorta given up on Herrera, who was an above average hitter in Triple-A at age 21. I think what’s happening is in fact that every single time BA puts out any prospect ranking, a different individual or groups of individuals put out the list. Hence, the bizarre lack of continuity/consistency.
But don’t ask a “scouty type” why they changed their opinion on someone, or you might get a defensive non-response like this:
Will: Hey Keith, love your work. I noticed Ezequiel Tovar fell from #25 on your midseason ranking to #69 on the top 100. What was the reason for such a big drop?
Keith Law: That’s the wrong way to look at these lists – they’re not sequential. I don’t look at my own midseason list before creating this one.
Poor Will. He even started out by immediately sucking up to Law, to counter Law’s reflexive animosity when questioned in any way, however benign. Over the past 12-15 years, I’ve seen Law asked some variation of this question 40 or 50 times, and never seen him give a straight answer.
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Anyway, with Hjerpe added to the list, that makes nine plausible top 100 types in the farm system. (I define “plausible” as anyone ranked on a respected national top 100 list, plus anyone else who was ranked ahead of multiple players who appeared on a top 100 list. So for the Cards, that means Walker, Winn, Graceffo, Hence, Herrera, Hjerpe, Bernal, Burleson, and Liberatore.
Law’s reflexive animosity when questioned in any way
Keith Law would’ve been the ideal long range weather forecaster. You’ve got to hand it to the guy though, it’s quite a skill to be so arrogant despite being wrong so often.
Leonardo Bernal, Jimmy Dale Crooks 3, Alec Willis, and Jonathan Mejia? (I have them 5th, 11th, 9th, and 13th, respectively.)
12/22/17/10
Thanks much, Euro.
I think they’re a touch over-enthused with Mejia, considering he fanned nearly 25% in the Dominican League and isn’t really rated a future shortstop. And Alec Willis should be higher than 17th, for me.But I listened to their Cardinal Top 10 Podcast thingy, and they liked Leo Bernal behind the plate, said he moved very well in fact. (Presumably that theoretically translates into fewer wild pitches/passed balls, if nothing else.) Sounded like they *wanted* to rank Bernal higher but didn’t get enough enthusiasm from their Industry Sources, whoever that is. That’s OK. I’ll be the lone voice who ranks him 5th in the farm system.
Alec Willis should be higher than 17th, for me
To me, its like he’s been here 2 years and we know nothing about him yet. 12 IP in the Complex League. He turns 20 in a month, so we’re going to have to see him pitch pretty soon.
Leonardo Bernal, Jimmy Dale Crooks 3, Alec Willis, and Jonathan Mejia?
If Bernal ever becomes a bonafide major leaguer, we should all chip in and send Bob a cake.
BTW, Viva el Birdos is creating a prospect list that according to fan votes. So far:
Walker
Winn
Hence
Graceffo
Burleson
Herrerra
Hjerpe
Liberatore
McGreevy is presently ahead for the ninth spot.In December, Baseball Prospectus placed Bernal at No. 6 in the system. He is in one other national Cardinals top 10 list so far and is 12th at BA as noted with not all lists out yet.
CBS sports has a top 50 list of projects likely to make the big leagues this year. The Cards got 3 on the list, Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, and Tink Hence
Thanks for sharing, BrockLou, but that is not realistic for Hence (or even close). Likely not for Winn, either, but 2024 is reasonable. Unless Hence gets rolling a lot faster, even 2025 could be a stretch.
that is not realistic for Hence (or even close). Likely not for Winn, either
Irrationally optimistic expectations is a symptom of Prospect Derangement Syndrome. There is no cure.
Ranking all 30 farm systems
March 22nd, 2023
Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra (MLB)9. St. Louis Cardinals
2022 midseason rank: 13
2022 preseason rank: 16
2021 midseason rank: 21
2021 preseason rank: 17Ranking all 30 farm systems
March 22nd, 2023
Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and Sam Dykstra (MLB)9. St. Louis Cardinals
2022 midseason rank: 13
2022 preseason rank: 16
2021 midseason rank: 21
2021 preseason rank: 17——————————————
Quoting their latest rankings article:
“Four members of that class (Walker, Winn, Hence, Burleson) have climbed into the Top 100, and 2021 fifth-rounder Graceffo joined them, solidifying St. Louis’ reputation as a master drafter and developer.”Wow. Really? A “master drafter and developer”? I’ll say this. Those incompetent hypocrites have certainly got a lot of nerve typing those words, after crapping on the Cardinal farm system over and over and over, in every single ranking they made since 2016. Two rankings per year, and the Cards never once higher than 14th until midseason of 2022 — and even then they only ranked the baby Birds 13th. That’s 13 consecutive rankings from 2016-22 wherein they (Callis + Mayo) ranked the Cards average-or-worse every single time. Every. Single. Time.
Doesn’t sound very masterful.
“Don’t shoot the messenger.”
When the messenger delivers one message, the same exact message, again and again, more than a dozen times over the better part of a decade, and then at the end of that, he delivers an entirely different message that completely contradicts every one of the preceding messages, he deserves to be shot. And I’ll happily do the shooting. Metaphorically, of course.
I’m asking for far too much, I know, but it would be nice if just one time one of these “professional” prospect analysts publicly acknowledged (even in passing) that they have chronically underrated St. Louis minor leaguers. Just some tiny scrap of humility or mere self-awareness when it comes to this subject. It could be Callis. It could be Longenhagen or Law, McDaniel or Mayo. Anybody, doesn’t matter. How refreshing it would be if they didn’t just smugly mumble something about “Devil Magic” or “overperforming” and then swiftly move on to the next topic.
Anyway, what’s funniest about Pipeline’s #9 ranking is it doesn’t even make sense if you add up their individual player rankings for each team. By Pipeline’s own individual player rankings in their top 100 overall prospects, the Cardinals can’t reasonably rate behind the #6, #7, or #8 teams (Tampa, Texas, Pitt). The math won’t work, mostly because having a prospect ranked 4th overall is as valuable as a pair of prospects ranked around 20th — assuming all prospects are ranked accurately. They can claim the Birds are 9th but their own numbers say 6th.
I’m not sure how the strength of a system is or should be measured vis-a-vis the other 29 systems. It wouldn’t be unreasonable to argue that W-L record gives a pretty good indication of relative strength. If you were to look at it that way, our system stinks because I don’t think any of our affiliates above low A have had a winning record in 5 years. That would have to be hard to do unless you are perennially outclassed up and down the system, and we all remember the historically bad system wide record we had recently. There is just too much sample size to brush off. 9th seems pretty OK to me. Lets hope it reflects current reality more than historical reputation.
It may be deeply counterintuitive, Bling, but for prospect rankings, team W-L records are entirely irrelevant. All that matters is specific individuals and their talent.
Kinda like the Angels, with Trout & Ohtani. On that team those two individuals have talent of an historical importance — but the poor depth undoes the team record, year after year. Recall that very recently MLB front office types ranked the Redbird farm in the top 3 or 4. That’s where they belong. Not 9th, not even close.
OK, Bob. I wasn’t aware that it was ranking just the top tier of prospects of the systems. I agree we have a strong contingent there, better than 9th as you say. Its more of a poor depth problem, like the Angels. We’ve got good top prospects but we lose anyway,
I’m in a straight line with what your’re driving at, Rob Reed, but the Angels are an organization that I can only conclude are somehow under a spell placed by the worst type of evil baseball gypsies. I mean, they were good for quite some time and although well balanced, they won with names like Glaus, Salmon, Eckstein and Spezio. How can a team help but to not build a winner around names like Trout and Ohtani? They’re not even what could be termed competitive for goodness sake and haven’t been so for a while. My only answer to this mystery is that they desperately need to seek the services of an experienced and well established shaman to remove or at least serve as a counterbalance to whatever curse has been placed on their organization…
It was advertised low 90s. I personally think the lower slot crossfire type delivery from the left side is what tripped up college hitters.
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