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Either pre-draft scouting reports were inflated or he’s not up to speed for some reason. It was sits 92-93, hits 94-95.
If you are quoting my report, I said my gun is reading 3-4 mph low compared to others. I hope it can be recalibrated.
This was posted yesterday.
🚨St. Louis Cardinals 2024 Top MLB Prospects🚨
The @Cardinals Top 10 is HERE.
Check out the top prospects in the system as well as …
– Projected 2027 Lineup
– Best Tools
– A subscriber chat at 2 p.m. EThttps://t.co/coG3knKwky— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) November 13, 2023
New BA top 100.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2024-top-100-prospects/
39 Winn up 9 YTY
75 Roby
83 Scott
84 Hence down 37 YTY
85 SaggeseThe influx of trades in July was not enough to stop the #stlcards farm system from falling from no. 9 a year ago to no. 20 in Baseball America's organizational rankings heading into 2024. https://t.co/X0tzqiS6B8
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) February 2, 2024
It seems hardly possible that there was enough turnover within the system from one year to the next to explain such a precipitous drop. Even if every bit of the turnover were negative, which it was not, as some respectable prospects were added. To put it another way, to have offset the gain of some supposedly well regarded prospects, and then some, to the tune of such a drop, the negatives of the turnover must have been profound indeed. That hardly seems possible. I would even say it is not possible. This large repositioning of the Cardinals system within the pecking order must be explained, at least in part, by something else.
Don’t forget that Jordan Walker, BA’s no. 4 prospect in MiLB, graduated. These rankings are very focused on high-end prospects. As noted above, Winn is the only StL prospect in their current top 74 and he will lose his prospect status on Opening Day. Further, Hence dropped significantly YTY.
Baseball America posted an article about 70 prospects across the minors who impressed scouts this spring. There are zero Cardinals listed. Ouch!
70.
SEVENTY.
7⃣0⃣.
Prospects Who Impressed Scouts On The Backfieldshttps://t.co/dOyiC4FUOm
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) April 4, 2024
I couldn’t find a “2024 draft thread”, so apologies if there is one and this is misplaced.
I would love for Konnor Griffin to drop to the Cards, everything I’ve read is nothing but positive about him. Age/size/swing/competition, etc.
With hopefully only one top 15 pick this decade, I’m of the mindset they need to swing for the fences on a potential long term bat.
TINSTAAPP right?
‘There I No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect’ (TNSTAAPP)
So far, it looks like Pittsburgh did pretty well with drafting Paul Skenes last year. I do agree that we don’t want to waste No. 7 overall by drafting a pitcher just because we need pitching. I think they should just trust their scouts and go with best available.
Post-draft, BA dropped the Cardinals from 20th to 21st-ranked farm system. But they are no longer last in the division as the Pirates fell to 27th after graduating Skenes and others.
Compared to their national top 100 coming into the year:
In: Wetherholt, Mathews
Remaining: Hence
Out: Roby, Saggese, Scott
Graduated: WinnThe upper levels are not kind to Cardinals top prospects lately. Projection gives way to reality, I guess. Hopefuly Hence and Mathews can hang in there.
Hence is on the mound for Springfield. Its his 3rd turn since coming back from the latest shutdown. Went 24 pitches, 6 days off, 41 pitches, 6 days off, now it only took him 7 pitches to get through the 1st if minor league game day is to be believed. We will see how many pitches he goes tonight and then wait to see if he answers the bell 6 days from now.
Hence should be up around 70 pitches when he goes 6 days from now. That was where he was last year. He worked up closer to a full load this year and ran into trouble, so it will be interesting to see how they handle things. His continued top prospect status depends upon the projection of making it as a starter, and that has yet to be established as realistic. It still looks hopeful for him at least. It seems like sober reality is starting to set in as to Roby though.
Roby should be moved to the pen for 2 reasons. First being his health issues and the 2nd being his command. Roby has the stuff to be a flat out dominating late innings RP so he should still have good value even in that role. Eric Longenglhagen at Fangraphs projects him a RP as well, but thinks the stuff is good enough he is still his 102nd ranked prospect.
Longenhagen and the rest do not factor in that throwing that ‘good stuff’ is obviously beyond what
Roby’s arm can tolerate, so it doesn’t matter if he still ‘has it’. Can he do something else that his arm can handle, and can he get anyone out doing it? That is the issue now.BB, it may be that his arm holds up to 1-2 IP per week and not to 5+. Hard to say…and it’s not like every team isn’t chock full of arms with all the same question marks. In the era of 24/7 news on prospects (which I am grateful for the work here at TCN and other places, there’s certainly a lot of focus on issues that we wouldn’t even have heard about 25+ years ago and not for weeks or more 15 years ago.
Yairo Padilla also received votes.
Four #stlcards prospects receive notice from Baseball America in their new Top 100.
25. JJ Wetherholt
41. Quinn Mathews
68. Tink HenceAmong 15 who just missed the Top 100: Thomas Saggese https://t.co/JoAZEldgOS
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) January 22, 2025
Here’s a BA discussion of the Cardinals farm system
Thanks for sharing LA. I do wish they spent more time actually talking on the farm system since that was supposed to be the focus and also go deeper down the Cards org. Interesting to hear the org thinks Wetherholt would go to 3rd if Winn does block him at SS. It does sound like his arm looked good enough for it so I don’t have a problem with it. I much prefer the 3B discussion to the CF discussion as I don’t want to stick another IF into the OF to fill a gap.
The Padilla and Rodriquez discussion (particularly Padilla) make me very excited for their potential as even being remotely compared to Tatis Jr. is a great sign. It is easy to forget these DSL guys are still so young they are literally growing. I appreciate hearing from the BA guys in general as they seem to have really good contacts in the org and having a guy in the DSL gives them much better info than other prospect sites.
Here is an updated Cardinals top 30 rankings from BA.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2025-st-louis-cardinals-top-30-prospects-june-update/
Here are the top 10. Sharing that much, but if you want the full list you’ll have to subscribe
1. JJ Wetherholt
2. Quinn Mathews
3. Thomas Saggese
4. Tekoah Roby
5. Rainiel Rodriguez
6. Tink Hence
7. Yairo Padilla
8. Chase Davis
9. Jimmy Crooks
10. Michael McGreevy
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