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Sickels’ site has a profile of the three players acquired for Tommy Pham. I am not impressed with it. They still like Justin Williams’ upside, but are not particularly high on Genesis Cabrera, asserting that he is ticketed to return to Double-A in 2019 (I would gladly take that bet).
Not like Sickles to make the mistake that Mercado is still in the organization!
On the merits of WAR it seems almost implausible the Cardinals win this trade unless Cabrera becomes a long term mid level starter or Williams really ups his game.
If the Cards dont trade some of their pitching depth I can easily see Cabrera back in AA if they want him to continue as a starter.
Cabrera will be on the 40-man roster by tomorrow and his progress will not be slowed because of lesser prospects perceived to be in his way. My bet is Triple-A, and I am hoping in the rotation.
We will have to check back on trade winners/losers in about five years. Pham is not a lock for the future, either.
After looking over the potential starters for next year, things look crowded at AA/AAA/MLB.
First I’ll guess the Cards rotation:
Mikolas/Flaherty/CMart/Wacha seem like locks
5th starter is Gomber/Hudson/POnce/Waino
6th starter is the one of the 3 above, for now I’ll say it’s Hudson, with other 2 in the MLB pen.Also, assuming the free agent signings Hauschild and Perez start at Memphis this is how I figure it:
Cabrera
Helsley, if he doesn’t make MLB pen out of Spring Training
Weaver
Woodford, also a AA possibility
Hauschild, although he could be headed to bullpen.
PerezIN this scenario, I like Ellis moving permanently to the pen. Jones also goes to the pen, although I have never been high on him.
AA rotation:
Krucysnki/Jesus Cruz/Walsh/Arauz/Warner/Meisner/Shew would be my pecking order.
Injuries, trades and free agent signings all could have a bearing on this, as always, but again our starting pitching is our strongest asset.
As I have it now based on guys currently in the organization (but bound to change over the Winter)
MLB starters
Martinez
Wacha
Mikilos
Flaherty
WainwrightMLB pen
Hicks
Gregerson
Leone
Gant
Myers
Brebbia
Cecil
ShreveAAA Starters
Reyes
Gomber
Weaver
Hudson
HelsleyAAA pen
Gallegos
Poncedeleon
Greene
Ellis/Morales
Jones
Elledge
Webb
LayneAA starters
Woodford
Cabrera
Kuczinski
Meisner
Warner/Shew/Walsh/CruzNote: I don’t even see any room for our minor league FA starters!
Does that make sense? Of course not! But Mo’s refusal to let go of anyone has us in the position of having the best AAA rotation in history (I can’t even fit Poncedelein into the AAA rotation!). Gant, Myers, and Shreve are out of options. Gregerson, Leone, and Cecil aren’t going to the minors. I can only assume if Mo kept all these guys it is because he plans on putting them on the roster.
Carioca – where do you have Junior Fernandez? Do you think Wainwright is going to be in the rotation or a reliever?
I think.Wainwright is in the rotation until he pitches his way out of it ( or gets injured)
Frenandez? San Diego! (Just joking). I would like to see him be a starter at AA but more realistic is that he is on the Springfield bullpen.
If the Cardinals don’t put Fernandez on Memphis’ roster he will surely be taken in the Triple A portion of the Rule 5 draft. Sure they could move him back to Springfield after the draft but he’s gotta clear the draft first.
BHC, of course he will.be protected on thevMemphis roster but that has little relevance to where he plays in 2019. Just as Cabrera will be on the STL roster. That doesn’t mean he will be in STL or even a guarantee that he will be in Memphis. i expect Infante to be on the Memphis roster but most likely starting the year in Peoria or Palm Beach if he is lucky.
CC, if you are correct then I would have to say that our AAA rotation would be better than a lot of MLB rotations. Not a bad problem to have.
One other comment I would make is that I sure like Webb better than Shreve. I know there are differences in service time accrual and options that impact roster management and it was a small sample but Shreve didn’t impress me at all in August and September. Webb looked serviceable though.
Anyone seen Winston Nicasio pitch in person? He thrived after a move to bullpen. I am thinking he may have had a spike in velocity after the move.
His ERA 1,76 and higher strikeout rate at State College seem impressive to me. I was surprised they started him at Peoria. The big negative with him was a higher walk rate. Maybe next season he can be Peorias closer?
I dont understand all the minor league FA pitching acquisitions. Why do the Cards want to sign these guys? And more perplexing, why would they see the Cardinals as an attractive team to sign with given our depth? If I was lefthanded, maybe. But a righthanded starter?
CC asked: Why do the Cards want to sign these guys?
Minor league depth. The season-ending Memphis rotation was Ellis, Herget, Woodford and Warner. Springfield’s team ERA for the entire season was almost five. In other words, the next wave pales in comparison to the last one.
Sure, St. Louis seems to have excess pitching, but what if they trade away two or three of them like they did last winter for Ozuna? How about when another elbow or two blows up? By then, many minor league FAs could be gone.
If the new guys don’t cut it or others step up, they get released with little loss. Do you remember Nestor Molina last winter? How about Joe Colon? That is my point. They did not block anyone.
CC asked: And more perplexing, why would they see the Cardinals as an attractive team to sign with given our depth?
Finding a job is first and foremost. Trying to guess which teams will more likely end up with openings before dozens of free agents are signed would be a crap shoot. Getting a contract is the goal.
P.S. Despite all of St. Louis’ pitching talent, journeymen like Preston Guilmet and Tyler Webb still got their shots in the majors last season because they took care of business while with Memphis.
Mike Rosenbaum on the MLB site put up a list of 10 prospects throughout the majors that he has statistical proof, will take off in ’19. The stats show that Max Shrock (1 of the 10) will improve upon his ’18 season with one that will be sure to impress.
With this information we can pencil in Shrock at 2B for Memphis and leave SS-3B to be fought over by Urias, Edman and Sosa…. maybe even Munoz. We hung #27 on Max, probably should have talked to Rosenbaum first. Anyway, I hope Shrock reads the MLB story and gets to Jupiter early.
Not often discussed about Schrock was that he was hurt almost immediately in spring camp (similar to O’Neill) and never got a chance to impress. O’Neill somewhat recovered later, but Schrock did not. He will be someone to watch closely this spring for sure. Also be aware Schrock was used at third late last season and they could decide to extend that experiment to make him a bit more useful as an MLB reserve candidate.
Agree on Robinson, CC. Though Edman is ready for Memphis, he could be odd man out.
MLB.com rated the fastest player in each organization:
Cardinals: Jonatan Machado, OF, (STL No. 17)
There are others in the system who use what speed they have more effectively on the basepaths (Tommy Edman and his 30 steals in 2018, for example), but in terms of straight speed, Machado might have them beat (He’s a 70 on the scouting scale). He did steal 12 bags in 2018, but he will need to hit more to get on base and become more efficient (seven caught stealing) moving forward.
Likely 2019 level: Class A Peoria*********************************************************************************
I was high on Machado two seasons ago as were many others. However, his stock fell significantly following a trying ’18 season. The 19 y.o. was challenged by a placement at Peoria and he was over matched, as were several others before him. He did recover at Johnson City. To reclaim his past optimistic potential, he’ll need to be more productive at the plate.
Brian Walton said it best in his prospect ranking analysis of Machado:
So the question for which there is not yet an answer is hereby teed up. Will Machado continue his slide, following Denton out of the top 50 (spoiler alert!) or recover to eventually reach the majors as have Kelly and Sierra?
With the lack of serious OF prospects at the PEO/SC/JC levels it would be nice to see him return to form.
In Feb of ’16 the Card’s stateside organization had 26 left handed pitchers. Three remain today Gomber, Oxnevad and Schlesener.
Someone in the Johnson City Cardinals front office just royally screwed up on twitter. Jenifer Langosch called them out for this tweet, which they rightfully deleted. However, as people already know, things typically don’t stay gone for good.
Hi, @JC_Cardinals. I'm glad you came to your senses and deleted this sexist trash, but could you explain to us why someone felt it was a good idea to post it at all, and could you tell us what steps you're taking to make sure it doesn't happen again? Thanks. pic.twitter.com/x1fPhYhiC7
— A Blog of Their Own (@BlogOfTheirOwn) January 5, 2019
As far as ’19 placements go, there are a multitude of openings on the Springfield roster and it will be interesting to see if Robertson and Trosclair will get the call for advancing to AA. also Walsh, JCruz and Fagalde moving up into starting roles there. If the organization still thinks enough of O’Reilly to give him a starting role somewhere.
Will that Peoria bullpen trio of Dayton, St.Clair and Whitley all move into the Palm Beach bullpen or higher?
Schlesener is getting some notice as a potential serious prospect. Will they push him up into the Palm Beach rotation?
There are a few interesting arms that were at GCL-Cards starters Coward 22 and DellaValle 22 State College or Peoria? plus relievers Pacheco 20, Justo 20 Escobar 21 and Avellino 19… all very young and have some talent but probably too raw for State College.
Where does Espinal fit in for ’19? Has Plummer shown enough to move him up to Springfield along with Carlson, Hurst and Capel?
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