2027 TCN Community Top Prospect Voting Thread

“Bob, on Dos Santos, do you push back on MLB.com’s evaluation where they have him as a 45 grade fielder. I’ve always assumed the SS who was given a 45 grade and has played about 40% of his innings away from the shortstop position isn’t likely to stick at SS or would be a below average defender at the position. My dream for him was basically to follow Wetherholt’s path where he ends up an above average defender, just not at SS. But it seems like you are much higher on his defense and projection at SS, and I’d love to get there as well.”

Fair question, Yoshi. I wouldn’t give too much credence to MLB.com’s infielder fielding grades. They assign 45’s and 50’s to all but the most dazzling defenders, at least when it comes to Cardinals. JJ Wetherholt was a mere 50, and so was outstanding defender Tommy Edman. Paul DeJong was just a 50, and Brendan Donovan a 45. Unless I’m mistaken, they also gave superior cubby gloveman Nico Hoerner a 50. Call it careful, cautious, or cowardly, whatever you want. But they pass out a lot of middling numbers, so I take their grades with grains of salt.

I put much more trust in two other things: actual on-field defensive performance, and Clay Davenport’s defensive translations, both present and peak.

Without getting too granular here, Sebastian Dos Santos has put up real solid numbers as a 17- and 18-year-old shortstop, while also spending some time at 2nd and 3rd, of course. In sum, SDS has in his brief career participated in 44 double plays while committing just 11 errors. That is an excellent ratio for one so young. Compare it to his fellow Cardinal farmhands.

Jesus Baez career: 131 DP’s and 61 errors.
Miguel Hernandez: 25 DP’s and 20 errors.
Yairo Padilla: 24 DP’s and 27 errors.

Obviously a fielder’s range is as vital as his hands and throwing arm. But when it comes to the latter two categories, Dos Santos is pretty clearly miles ahead of the other three — especially Miggy and Yairo. And Dos Santos is a good enough athlete (steals bags, doesn’t GIDP) that there’s no reason I can see to assume he’ll have a range problem.

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And then there’s the Clay Davenport Translations. Davenport’s been doing this kinda stuff for 30 years, and his glovework prognostications have proven prescient more often than not, so when his forecasting system says SDS will be a +10 at shortstop in his prime, that carries quite a bit of weight with me. Much more than anyone’s fielding grades.

Anyway, one last thing about errors. For his short career, Dos Santos has an milb fielding percentage of .954 at shortstop. That fits right in with the minor league career tallies of some other recent Redbirds. Chronologically, you have Brendan Ryan .958, Paul DeJong .971, Tommy Edman .965, Masyn Winn .960, and JJ Wetherholt .963. Yeah, SDS is a little bit lower than the others. But he’s close enough that once we adjust for his extreme youth — and also for the fact that he’s been playing on the less-manicured lawns of the lower minors — I feel comfortable calling them his defensive peer group. At least for now.

Lastly, thanks JNevel for the gracious words.

Thanks for the insight Bob, I’m sticking with Fajardo, but Dos Santos is next up on my list now.

Even though I voted for Baez I don’t disagree with Nigel’s comments. In one of the previous rounds of voting I subtely hinted at these “non-statistical” aspects of Baez’s game that must be improved. These types of things were written about in scouting reports when the trade with the Mets was completed. It really isn’t a secret.

But when you put up the kind of offensive numbers he put up it is hard to ignore. Does he still need to clean up the other aspects of his game? Absolutely, but you can’t teach natural ability. I just hope that our development team is doing everything possible to help him realize what he needs to work on.

I don’t vote often for relievers because just like major league relievers they are often inconsistent from year to year

Sandro Santana

I’m picturing Rosanne Rosanadana.

@StlCard25 … I like Sandro a lot, and the last 3 seasons the same with LG. But with the depth in position players and starting pitching in our system, I don’t think I could ever put a reliever, no matter how dominant they are, above our Top 20. Maybe Sandro can land 18-20…maybe. I have him #21, and I thought I was being generous.

3 or 4 years ago…sure, he’d easily be Top 15. Just not the case now…at least me it isn’t.

“Suppose I told you that we had a pitching prospect who, at 21, just plowed through 3 levels, was named reliever of the year by MLB Pipeline, noted as “best left handed slider” by Baseball America, 14.2 K/9 (39.6% K rate), allowed a total of 4 earned runs and 14 hits the last four months for a 0.91 ERA, allowed a very good .576 OPS against righties and an absurd .349 OPS against lefties?
Other than his small size, Sandro Santana is a virtuoso on the mound. He’s got an excellent fastball and the killer slider, which makes him a potentially elite bullpen arm.”

I’m glad you brought up Sandro Santana, stl25. He’s in my Redbird top 10, and overall top 100, which certainly wouldn’t have been possible for a reliever 15 or 20 years ago. But now with “workhorse” major league starters barely logging enough innings for the ERA title, bullpen arms are much more important than any time in MLB history. And becoming more so all the time.

To expand a bit on 25’s statistical overview, here’s the kind of 2026 season Sandro had.

There were 1,382 minor leaguers who tossed 50+ innings and Santana was the sole twirler ranked in the 99th percentile in every single one of the following categories: ERA (1.97), FIP (2.68), xFIP (2.90), K/9 (14.20), K% (39.6%), K-BB% (27.5%), batting average against (.153), and swinging strike rate (17.8%).

Righties slugged .276, and lefty bats slugged .140. Slugged. And as stl25 alluded, the 21-year-old was just as effective versus AA and AAA as he was early in the year against A-ball batters. Santana allowed a double on May 15th, which is noteworthy because he allowed exactly one more extra base hit over the remainder of the season (190 hitters).

Yes, 2026 was a big breakout. But SS was also very effective in 2025 with a 2.73 ERA. And he’s been healthy now for two years running — 64 innings this year, 59 frames last season.

I’d prefer he were a little bigger, and didn’t throw quite so hard, as that combo probably makes him a bit more prone to physical breakdown over the long haul. But you can’t have everything. As is, with his spectacular 2026 campaign, it’s still likely the best bullpen prospect profile since Craig Kimbrel some 15+ years ago.

• This reply was modified 4 days, 10 hours ago by Bob Reed.

I think Santana is in St Louis opening day, whenever that will be.

Baez is a great prospect as capital, but not as a pillar. I have seen him standing arms folded with the pitch in flight; once his glove was off with the pitch in flight.
I admitted to heckling him at the intimate stadium experience, but I am reminded of a Far Side cartoon where the dog’s owner scolds, ” If you keep chewing on this I’m getting rid of you for good Ginger!” The dog hears, ” blah blah blah blah blah good Ginger!”
The guy can really play and is “headsy” about it. He makes spectacular plays like faking the throw to first on a double play and spinning back to throw a strike picking off the lead runner rounding third for the final out of an inning.
He is really good at baseball and perhaps he has been molded into who he is by people who needed him to be great at playing rather than leading.

• This reply was modified 3 days, 20 hours ago by Nigel T.

#9 Trevor Condon…for the 3rd time 🙂

we can’t ignore our first round pick anymore. Best hit tool of the entire draft. 4 tool prospect right now, with a good possibility he rounds into that power tool as he gets older.

9 is still a great spot for White Hoodie Kid.

9. Fajardo