2027 TCN Community Top Prospect Voting Thread

“Bob, on Dos Santos, do you push back on MLB.com’s evaluation where they have him as a 45 grade fielder. I’ve always assumed the SS who was given a 45 grade and has played about 40% of his innings away from the shortstop position isn’t likely to stick at SS or would be a below average defender at the position. My dream for him was basically to follow Wetherholt’s path where he ends up an above average defender, just not at SS. But it seems like you are much higher on his defense and projection at SS, and I’d love to get there as well.”

Fair question, Yoshi. I wouldn’t give too much credence to MLB.com’s infielder fielding grades. They assign 45’s and 50’s to all but the most dazzling defenders, at least when it comes to Cardinals. JJ Wetherholt was a mere 50, and so was outstanding defender Tommy Edman. Paul DeJong was just a 50, and Brendan Donovan a 45. Unless I’m mistaken, they also gave superior cubby gloveman Nico Hoerner a 50. Call it careful, cautious, or cowardly, whatever you want. But they pass out a lot of middling numbers, so I take their grades with grains of salt.

I put much more trust in two other things: actual on-field defensive performance, and Clay Davenport’s defensive translations, both present and peak.

Without getting too granular here, Sebastian Dos Santos has put up real solid numbers as a 17- and 18-year-old shortstop, while also spending some time at 2nd and 3rd, of course. In sum, SDS has in his brief career participated in 44 double plays while committing just 11 errors. That is an excellent ratio for one so young. Compare it to his fellow Cardinal farmhands.

Jesus Baez career: 131 DP’s and 61 errors.
Miguel Hernandez: 25 DP’s and 20 errors.
Yairo Padilla: 24 DP’s and 27 errors.

Obviously a fielder’s range is as vital as his hands and throwing arm. But when it comes to the latter two categories, Dos Santos is pretty clearly miles ahead of the other three — especially Miggy and Yairo. And Dos Santos is a good enough athlete (steals bags, doesn’t GIDP) that there’s no reason I can see to assume he’ll have a range problem.

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And then there’s the Clay Davenport Translations. Davenport’s been doing this kinda stuff for 30 years, and his glovework prognostications have proven prescient more often than not, so when his forecasting system says SDS will be a +10 at shortstop in his prime, that carries quite a bit of weight with me. Much more than anyone’s fielding grades.

Anyway, one last thing about errors. For his short career, Dos Santos has an milb fielding percentage of .954 at shortstop. That fits right in with the minor league career tallies of some other recent Redbirds. Chronologically, you have Brendan Ryan .958, Paul DeJong .971, Tommy Edman .965, Masyn Winn .960, and JJ Wetherholt .963. Yeah, SDS is a little bit lower than the others. But he’s close enough that once we adjust for his extreme youth — and also for the fact that he’s been playing on the less-manicured lawns of the lower minors — I feel comfortable calling them his defensive peer group. At least for now.

Lastly, thanks JNevel for the gracious words.