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I have Mathews as my #6 prospect. It’s very close between #2-6, and I’m probably underrating my #7 to where he could be a little closer to the others, himself. I see Quinn’s age and two years at AAA as limiting his ceiling more than you do, AtM, but I can understand how his MLB experience would give him a boost.
Bernal at 2 for me. I’m hopeful this is our main catcher of the next 15 or so years. 22 years old. Minor league gold glove winner. Has some pop and seems to have a good idea at the plate. Doesn’t seem to scare on the big stage. I thought about Doyle here, but lean toward position players given arms are often fragile.
I am also going with Quinn Mathews at #2. There a group of about 5 guys that are all quite close for numbers 2-6 for me. Quinn is the most proven of that group. Aside from one outing that went really poorly maybe in spite of solid pitching from him, his rookie performance at the MLB level was extremely good. He also was better at AA than our other pitchers I am considering here for spots 2-6.
2. Quinn Mathews
#2. Bernal
He’s already starting for the Cardinals. I’m going with the eye test here. He just looks like the role of major league catcher. Skip Caray looked at him when he first arrived to St. Louis on September 1, and said on the air that Bernal has the ‘It’ factor which I have only heard used to describe a quarterback at times. I think I see what Caray is talking about. It’s something like charisma. You can’t really put your finger on it but it’s there. He hasn’t played enough to demonstrate a GG potential, but doing it at the minor league level says a lot. Whenever there’s a pitcher with top of rotation potential, it’s hard to put any prospect ahead of him, and Doyle is that.
My #2 is Quinn Mathews. Reclaimed his spot in the Top 5.
Doyle isn’t mentally and emotionally mature enough to be a Top 5 prospect in a very deep organization.
Mathews #2
I wish I knew if Hjerpe was going to become consistently as effective as his first appearance. Control was perfect, but he didn’t repeat that. I wish I knew how the low slot was going to play once guys have seen him. He could be top 5 or not in the top 10.
Bling-
Interesting. I figured you’d mark Mathews down due to arm issues. If you care to say anything about it, I’d love to hear. Thanks.
Bernal, Mathews, Doyle and Franklin have improved their prospect standing with their performance in the late season. It’s made it more difficult to pick between them. But I have to go Doyle at number 2. Crossland is another who better his stock. He did much better at Peoria in a few brief starts.
Beautiful post, Mud! I love Bernal at #2 too. He does have that look about him. And he put some pretty decent numbers up. I still have my doubts about Matthews…….but absolutely none regarding Bernal. Ladies and gentlemen, meet our catcher for the next decade, Leonardo Abdiel Bernal.
I had dropped Mathews down for the same reason some/many/most prospect rankers moved him down. Pitchers with shoulder trouble tend to keep having shoulder trouble. Their results tend to be uneven, trending worse over time. Mathews looked like he was going down that path. I moved him down right away, since that is what usually happens with bum shoulders. Others waited until his results proved uneven and then moved him down.
He might still end up there, but this year he made 30 starts, going 150 innings with solid ERA and K rate, and improving BB rate. Results trump everything else.
I also could not find anyone I was sold on enough to put ahead of Mathews. Bernal, to me, looks very immobile behind the plate, and I think there is significant risk his defense will be exposed over the course of a full ML season. I could have gone with Doyle at #2. I have him next, but he made 23 starts in AA while Mathews made 30 in AAA and ML, and both put up similar numbers.
I vividly recall fans negative takes on Yadi when he came up…..and for a couple years after that……mainly about this light stick at the time.
Boy another roof job out. They may need to start raising these dome roofs.
I am going to go with the 22 year-old Bernal over the 26 year-old Mathews.
I think it’s more likely that Bernal outproduces Mathews over the course of their respective careers.
Cardinals can trade Pages this year and Crooks next year.
Liam Doyle at #2, please.
I was opposed to the drafting of Doyle, due to his erratic mound behavior and checkered success rate in college. But he won me over with his results in Double-A this year.
Texas League ERA 5.05, Liam Doyle 3.76. Okay, that’s solid, but of course the real story is the extraordinary improvement over his 25-start campaign.
First dozen starts, 6.08 ERA and 49 hits across 47.1 innings.
Next 13 outings, 1.68 ERA and just 36 hits in 64.1 frames.Doyle didn’t allow a longball over his final 8 starts, and just 1 in his last 11. He’s pretty much a consensus top 40 prospect — and top 30 with both Keith Law and Fangraphs — and I just can’t put either Quinn or Leonardo above a guy who’s unanimously considered so elite, and who finished his season with a combo of extended dominance and good health.
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Quinn walked 60 guys in 100 Memphis innings, which is kinda scary. And Leo’s OPS+ in the majors was higher than any other level at which he’s played, so I’m afraid the hitter we witnessed under the Arch was at least a bit of a distortion. Don’t get me wrong, I like these guys. Mathews and Bernal are overall top 100 guys for me, but I just can’t put them above Doyle (or a couple of others).
That’s the rub for me too, Bob. After his shoulder injury, the mighty Quinn has never managed to have get the walks truly under control. For me, that puts him in the #3-5 starter bucket, rather than the #2-3 guy that many are voting him for. And without much relief fallback, he looks to me like a 1.5-2.5 WAR starter, which is valuable. Doyle has more variance, but I think he’s a better bet to be a big league plus starter, with the fallback of a late inning reliever, barring injury.
We had 17 vote in the first round, with 14 so far in the second round. There’s still a day and some change to get your vote in and influence history!
I have Doyle at 5. He’s super close with everyone in the 2-6 range. When I run through probabilities, the highest probability for Doyle is he ends up as a reliever – likely because injury forces him there because of the high stress of his delivery or control forces him there. I love his current results. I love everything the development staff is doing with him. Because of it, he has the highest probability to become an “ace” of all the pitchers in our system. But if I were gambling and betting on the odds, I’d bet he spends most of his career as a reliever. Mathews on the other hand has very little reliever risk. He’s most likely a number 3 starter for years to come. He could become a 2 or a 4 depending on refinement or lack thereof but he’s probably a 3. That’s where my head is at on this one.
I do think we will learn a lot more about Doyle next season when we see him handle more advanced hitters and see the results with a major league ball.
I am picking Doyle at #2. Lots of good discussion about this pick, and will be for the next several! I love to hear everyone’s thoughts about each player and why they chose one over the other. I don’t always agree, but that is why this is so interesting! (and fun!)
Most of the top prospects had strong finishes with STL or milb. We’ll see how Doyle and Franklin handle AAA.
Doyle and Franklin both should be lined up to push for 30 starts and 150 innings. Hjerpe likely will be behind that pace due to building back up. We will find out who can handle the work load.
At #2 I have Leo Bernal.
It was close between a lot of guys here, but the success at the major league level at the catcher position pushed him over the top for me. His defense has always been strong in the minors, and while it wasn’t perfect in St. Louis, I’m hopeful he will be able to become an everyday regular at the position. He seemed to get big hits when we needed him most and should be handed the keys next season behind the plate ahead of Herrera, Crooks, and Pages.
I like all the discussion! Even though I think Mathews is behind several other guys, having a fairly certainly passable big league starter at #6 is a very solid system indeed.
Voting is very tight so any vote could be the deciding factor! We’ve never had to involve a tiebreaker for a top 10 prospect before, but it very well could happen this time!
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