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“I don’t see how you can’t like Jesus Baez’ low strikeout rate and 39 homers….And how about Baez’ improvement at Springfield? No one talks about that.”
Yeah, I hear you, Cards27. It is indeed highly unusual — in the best possible way — for a guy to combine power & contact so well. Specifically, there were 76 minor leaguers this year with at least a .250 isolated slugging (min 300 PA’s) and Jesus Baez (iso. slg. of .305) fanned the least of any of them! I love love love that combination.
But as has been mentioned by others, he also had the 2nd-lowest walk rate of all 76 power hitters; and historically in the upper minors a poor walk rate portends future failure in the majors. Anyway, when you add it all up, his BB/K ratio ranked just 58th among the aforementioned 76 sluggers. That’s a medium-sized red flag. Bright red.
Then you have his weirdly low BABIPs, everywhere I mean everywhere he’s played. Guys who go on to be average-or-better MLB batsmen just don’t post such poor BABIPs in the minors. Maybe some have but none spring to mind. Again, it’s just *weird* how consistently low they’ve been. On the other hand, he HAS been young everywhere he’s played, and that can lead to BABIP suppression, and home runs don’t help your BABIP like doubles and triples do. Hit it over the fence, your BABIP just stagnates.
On the other other hand, there was a longball rampage in 2026 across the minors, and we just don’t know if we’re looking in a one-season funhouse mirror when we see “39 homers” on Baez’ baseball card.
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He’s a combustible stew of extreme positives and negatives (Clay Davenport’s evaluation system likes his shortstop defense almost as much as Sebastian Dos Santos’ defense) which means his MLB chances will come down primarily to health and hard work in all likelihood — and the latter is a concern, I’d say.
In any case, I have the young man in the 12-14 range among Redbird farmhands, or roughly top 120-130 overall. In his recent Athletic.com chat, Keith Law claimed Baez’ attitude is improved since coming to the Cards; but Nigel says otherwise and he’s an eyewitness. So I’m discarding Law’s second-hand reportage.
Finally, thanks for the kind words, 27. And Gags and Nigel as well. Cardinal fans are the coolest.
I wonder if Baez has the range of a Dejong at shortstop? Dejong didn’t have great range, but most everything he caught were thrown out. Not sure of his third base defense as he doesn’t have as many reps there. I would hope the FO decides where he fits best and deploys him there mostly. Although it might be best to split him between short and third. Second might have been an option but JJ is the likely starter for the foreseeable future. Shortstop seems to have a similar regular for years to come with Winn. But Winns bat needs to get better.
We have a few more hours left to vote, and once again, voting is tight, so get your votes in as soon as you can!
Fajardo for me at 9. Nearly went with Cijntje and Roby.
Bob-
I do not believe the word “coolest” has ever been used in a sentence referring to me. Thanks!
Adding some comments from my writeup about Fajardo…
Fajardo has been pushed aggressively since being acquired in the Willson Contreras trade, and his mature arsenal and results have held up very well. He started off in Peoria, where he had great results early before fading a little as the season got to its midway point (1.69 ERA in April, fading to 5.75 in July, although the peripherals were about the same). This suggests that maybe the staff had him working on something at the midway point and felt like he was handling it well, because he was promoted to Springfield and into that very crowded rotation in late July, where he proceeded to pitch pretty much like you would expect a 19 year old at a new advanced level to pitch. The Ks came down, but the walks also did. He acquitted himself well enough to start in both of Springfield’s playoff series.
Yhoiker features a fastball with solid velocity, but without ideal shape, that he controls really well, an excellent slider, and a very good changeup. He commands it all very well for a pitcher of his age and that has allowed his stuff to play up at lower levels. It will be interesting to see how he responds to a second visit to Springfield and the shot to pitch with the big league ball in later 2027, if that occurs. His fastball does limit his upside more than the two guys in front of him, but he has a pretty good floor considering his age and control. He feels like an under the radar #5 sort of pitcher who will probably give up some dingers, but also have a year where the wind and barrels fall in his favor and he puts up a 3.50 ERA and starts a playoff game.
Closing out the voting here after our tiebreaking vote came in…your 2027 TCN Community #9 prospect is Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP. Congratulations to the 20 year old on a strong showing!
1. Rainiel Rodriguez, C
2. Quinn Mathews, LHP
3. Liam Doyle, LHP
4. Leo Bernal, C
5. Joshua Baez, OF
6. Tanner Franklin, RHP
7. Cooper Hjerpe, LHP
8. Jesus Baez, IF
9. Yhoiker Fajardo, RHPVoting is now open for the #10 prospect. This will be our last solo vote. Voting will close at 12 PM CT/1 PM ET on Monday, October 26th.
My vote for #10 is Jurrangelo Cijntje, RHP. He’s right there with a shot to make the majors this year. He just needs to pitch like he did the last month and a half at Memphis.
Jurrangelo would’ve been my next guy up after Fajardo coming into this exercise, but my mind has been changed on a rising prospect (Thanks Bob).
#10. Sebastian Dos Santos
I’m going to go Cijntje here at 10. It’s a toss-up between he and Condon, but having seen only a few at bats from Condon means Cijntje wins for me. Those last few starts at Memphis were pretty dominant. I do still have a lot of questions on him though. He’s probably my least favorite prospect I’ve voted for yet for all sorts of reasons. I worry about the 2-handed approach (even though he seems to have largely dropped that) and sometimes the way he attacks hitters. On the upside though, he might start the year in the MLB rotation.
10. Cijntje
“He (Jurrangelo Cijntje) just needs to pitch like he did the last month and a half at Memphis.”
No kidding. Last 9 starts in AAA: just 1 homer, a 48-to-14 strikeout/walk tally, a .556 OPS allowed, and a 2.95 ERA and tremendous 2.20 FIP. Absolutely fantastic, better than I thought before checking the details. I’ll stick with SDS for now, but Jurrangelo is a top 125 type prospect, if not higher.
#10 Sebastian Dos Santos, please.
10. Cijntje
I thought Frias was above Ragsdale when they came, but Ragsdale is getting the love, what happened?
#10. Cijntje.
Also, can’t get Condon, Kuhns, Frias, DosSantos, Ragsdale, Peete, Mason Molina, Odle, out of my mind. And what’s this Maniscalco guy all about. The Cardinals paid big bucks to sign him. Then, there’s Roby. Are we going to penalize Roby in our rankings for as long as Roby penalized fans with his injuries? Or, are we going to let bygones be by bygones and rank him according his pitches, his overall talent?
Some, yet unknown, trade partner will likely benefit from this embarrassment of riches. IMO, no one can go wrong with whoever they select for the next 10. Already can’t wait to see how Brian and Kyle handle this.
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