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I think David was one of the best pitchers in the system. Outstanding strikeout rate. Throws harder than Hansen. Davis is undersized, while I see Hansen as a 5th starter I think Davis will ride his outstanding change up to middle of the rotation.
Franklin throws harder than Winquest, but both have lively fastballs. I like Franklins 4 pitch mix.
I like Lin a lot. He throws 100, but his fastball is straight.
My next 4 prospects not selected yet are Davis, Lin, Franklin and Mitchel.I don’t undrstand the love for Hjerpe. He has been injured more than he has been healthy. I know he is a first round pick, but I have to downgrade him.
I don’t undrstand the love for Hjerpe. He has been injured more than he has been healthy. I know he is a first round pick, but I have to downgrade him.
That’s how I feel about a lot of our prospects. If you are constantly hurt your stock should drop.
#15 – Lin
#16 – Ryan Mitchell – Early on, Mitchell checks a lot of boxes. If this kid doesn’t get ranked soon, there can only be one explanation. The sportswriters of America have not given him enough ink.15. Tanner Franklin
16. Deniel OrtizI have Mitchell next after these two and Davis and Lin both sometime soon after that. I’ll get to Pete Hansen sometime around 35 if he isn’t elected before then!
I know Roby is out for a while, but if you compare innings logged, Roby has over 300 innings, Hjerpe just over 90 since he was drafted. And I don’t think Cooper throws that hard. And Roby was pitching the best of his life. I see him as a middle to top of the rotation guy. But I Hjerpe as a middle reliever. I hope I am wrong about the latter.
#15 – Deniel Ortiz
#16 – Nathan ChurchIf you are constantly hurt your stock should drop.
Agreed. And I agree with your earlier post that Hence, Roby and Hjerpe seem to be on the Alex Reyes path.
Winquest was 25 in AA, and Franklin had one of the best head coaches in the country and still couldn’t get college hitters out (career ERA 5.61, and 4.89 in 2025). So I don’t think much about either guy.
Davis in 2025 allowed just 58 hits in 110 innings, with 153 strikeouts. Those are tremendous numbers, obviously. Peoria & Palm Beach are highly sympathetic pitching environments, but even adjusting for that advantage, Davis had a very impressive campaign. But those 75 walks….
Pete Hansen has made all his starts for three years running, and guys like that sometimes have a breakthrough a bit later, like in their mid-late-20’s. Lefties, especially. So I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he’s a solid #4/5 MLB starter in a couple of years. Due to durability, Hansen’s a little more likely to be a starter long term — but Davis WAY more upside if he can remain a rotation piece.
As usual, Mudville is spot on in his assessments. I too am on board with young, Ryan “Gabby” Mitchell. He certainly does check a heck of a lot of boxes. Reasons abound as to why he was signed for $529,700 over slot. He’ll crack our Top 10 prospect list next year. Matter of fact, I’m so bullish on this kid that I’m inserting him onto my next year’s rough draft list @ #7……the early bird usually does indeed get the worm. Ryan is my #15, but I’m still hung up on #16.
#15. Deniel Ortiz
#16. Chen-We LinMitchell is the next available on my list so I have no problem with him there either as the votes seem to be going that way. I’m probably the odd man out, but I personally don’t have Hansen in my top 50.
15. Chen-Wei Lin. Wei-no is going to make us all look silly as he vaults into the top 5 next year. That’s my prediction.
16. Daniel Ortiz. Stocky, young community college 3B? Rips up every level? Sounds familiar…the 20 year old even overcame the Peoria curse to put up a nice line in the last few weeks at A+. We will see how he fares either at Peoria or Springfield next year as a 21 year old. Who knows, perhaps next spring, Arenado pulls a hammy and the youngster has to fill in for the first few weeks and…?
My last post should have been Deniel Ortiz…phone autocorrected it. Anyway, a nice looking prospect at a position that once looked jammed, but now looks a bit like a waste land.
I looked back for anything to justify discussing Chase Davis, but his approach is so bad, and his strike out rate so profound that he could drop out of the top 20.
It should be noted that my eyes see an outfielder most similar to Mike Siani…seriously. Davis has really developed that aspect.
If the bat ever clicks, he instantly becomes viable in center in St. Louis.Chase Davis is a bit out for me, especially considering who’s being voted for currently.
This year I’ve taken the approach that I wanted to assign a future value for each guy and then place them by that, realistic ceiling (I called it FV80, or 80th percentile outcome), and risk. I feel pretty solid about my list this year, for that reason. I have 6 guys with FVs of 50 or above (average position player, #4 or above starter, shutdown reliever), 26 guys at FV 40 or above (bench guy, fill in starter, middle reliever), and 37 guys with a ceiling of 50 or above.
As I’ve not done my rankings this way before, I’m not sure how it stacks up with previous classes or if it would be a system that could stock a future contender. Right now, the system “feels” like it would provide a solid base as constructed, but more would be needed and/or a few gems would have to be unearthed, unexpectedly, to build a core for a contender.
I think he’s a fringe above Siani offensively. He’s shown glimmers of hope there. Certainly has more power potential than Siani. There are stretches where things just start clicking for him and he gets really hot. That of course comes with more strikeouts and too many in Davis’ case.
He’s likely a little worse defensively despite being really good there just because Siani is a pretty amazing defender.
Nigel is right though. Overall, Davis looks like a future 5th outfielder, which is poor value for a 1st rounder. I have him in my upper 20’s range. And he’s only that high because the physical tools say he has at least a chance to still be good. IMO – he is not a top 20 prospect.
My thinking is at this point, with the position players, we are looking at potential complimentary pieces exactly like the system has produced previously. Unless we are talking about MOTO power bat or up the middle GG type able to bat above MOTO, then its not what we need and therefore not a top prospect, imo. Keep the nifty defenders who will end up batting 7th or 8th. I rather go for rotation candidates and we know from sad experience that counting on fragile arms is a fools errand. So right now I am looking at guys like Hansen, Winquist and Taylor. I also have Lin although I don’t how he will hold up.
Bling – Those seem to be your type of guys through the years. The Tommy Parsons, Trent Baker, or Alex Cornwell’s of the world with mediocre stuff that plays at AA and sort of at AAA, but gets killed at the Major League level if they ever get there. But hey, they are durable, right? Hansen looks very much like that to me. Winquest is pseudo interesting. I’m not sure what to make of Curtis Taylor. He might be able to reproduce what Mikolas gave us this season.
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