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I would add a few wins from improved integration of analytics with game prep and decisions, and a few wins from better integration of meaningful input from a veteran coaching staff. But I am limiting it to what could actually happen. But a lot of factors added up to 91 losses, and expecting it all to be made up by rotation upgrades misses the mark.
While this is technically accurate, it’s still the case that the shoddy rotation was the main cause of the tumble to last place. So in that sense, the quickest way to improve is to shore up the biggest weakness. You’re right that RF and sS, the defense, coaching, decision making and luck, among other things, will have an impact of the Cards want to return to October relevance. But the rest of those wouldn’t matter if the rotation was still a black hole. At least coming out of the season there was some hope for all those other issues outside of spending or acquisition of better talent..
jj-cf-stl
6mil of salary relief isn’t “nothing”. I suggest that “segment” is poorly informed.
O’Neill is worth more than his $5.5-$6.0M salary, so at the very worst, they should sign him if only to trade him. BTV has him at $5.5M in surplus value.
The rotation was obviously the weakest part of the 2023 team but I also agree that the 20 additional wins we need in 2024 can come from other places than just an improved rotation. How about Arenado and Goldy earning their combined $65M salary by producing the numbers we need from them? That would be a good place to start.
By the way, I still think there is room in the budget to pull off a trade for Cease.
Confirmed your numbers Pads, from BTV.
O’Neill’s field value was 6.5mil last season (fangraphs). BTV predicts 11mil field value next season on a 5.5mil salary. I expect a repeat of his 23′ value so 1mil surplus or less.
I’d would have preferred cash for the war chest, instead of the trade complications, but here we are 😄
2023 QS%
63% Montgomery
53 Gray
52 Gibson
41 Lynn
40 Mikolas
35 Flaherty
35 Mlb avg
33 Hudson
24 Matz
19 Wainwright
18 LiberatoreToo bad Montgomery earned and will fetch too much $$ and is now out of our league. I would have loved to
have seen (and would have felt more promise for ’24 with) him as our #1.From Larry Brown Sports today:
Whether the revamped Cardinals rotation pays off in 2024 remains to be seen. But St. Louis is determined to not be as bad in 2024 as they were in 2023, and they have spent money accordingly.
A lot of what I’ve been reading (above is an example) and including here is that the present rotation will be better than in ’23. That isn’t saying much and probably not enough to get us into October. Let’s hope we can avoid last place again.
If all other areas of deficiency improve as much as the rotation, we should at least be competitive.
A lot of people (the front office included) are hedging their bet on Mikolas not totally sucking in 2024 and pitching like complete dog turd. I am not one of them. This front office has truly learned nothing.
I am curious if posters actually believe that they are intellectually superior to the humans comprising the Cardinal front office.
This group just put together a historic run of success. In the real world I exist in, negativity does not equate to intellectual superiority. In fact, science tells us that negative emotional responses release cortisol in our brains inhibiting intellectual processes.Negativity about Lynn is well warranted. Gibson might be marginally better than Lynn. Gray is a solid addition. Mikolas is basically the same as Gibson. I will keep Matz out the assessment as the spring chicken of the group I will stay neutral on him.
I am not sure what the expectations were but unless Steve Cohen bought the Cardinals without me knowing about it I don’t think it was reasonable to think they were going to sign three number one aces this winter. They will definitely be better than 2023, and as bling has pointed out, the rotation is not the only area of the team that needs to step up.
The expectations were more like Gray and less like Lynn. You already had Mikolas so adding Gibson would be ok but adding both Lynn and Gibson is redundant. I don’t get adding Lynn at all. Innings eaters or not. Lynn is the same as Gibson and Mikolas only worse.
Yep, that’s a fair call Oliver, of the rotation today.
They’ve also said they’d like to add a young cost controlled starting pitcher.
I like to think they will be aggressive in pursuing trades and continue adding arms.
Stereotyping and marginalizing people are not fair points. Lynn brings more than last year’s stats. Gibson is not redundant. You will go back decades before you find the last pitching staff with four starters throwing over 740 innings that didn’t make the playoffs.
The expectations were more like Gray and less like Lynn.
So they were going to add three pitchers making around $25M per year each? That doesn’t add up.
Johnny was quoted weeks ago in the local paper as saying, “We know we need innings.” Well, I have to acknowledge that he’s certainly formulated and put into practice a plan that collects a lot of innings. The only possible problem with the plan is that every solitary one of those immense amount of innings were collected in 2023. As to whether or not a portion of those innings can be placed into the books in 2024 is something only the baseball gypsies can forsee. Let’s hope their crystal ball likes the chances of 4 or 5 SP’ers that are all a bit long in the tooth.
Anyone with a pulse and any brain wave activity at all is intellectually superior to the humans comprising the Cardinals Front Office.
LOL
I will not suggest that I know how to run a baseball team.
If you are asking whether about pure intellectual ability, then I might be intellectually superior but I would need more information to know for sure.
Seriously though, just because someone is a GM does not automatically mean they are infallible with respect to putting a team together.
One would have to believe Mozeliak has never made a mistake and I would doubt that is the case.
Lynn brings more than last year’s stats.
You are wasting your time Nigel. Lynn put up poor numbers playing for a team even worse than us and did better once he was traded to LA. He will probably be a solid innings eater who will jusually give us a chance and will not burn down the pen on us every 5 days.
Mo just signed the guy who just came in second in the AL Cy Young and some people are squeeling like a stuck pig because they wanted somebody else.
When I was in high school track I came in third in my event at a particular track meet.
What makes that not special is there were only four people competing in my event.
Gray had an 8-8 record in 2023. While W/L record is not a stat that is particularly indicative of skill, there are some credible baseball analysts who have pointed out that his record is unusual for a runner up in a Cy Young race.
The point I am rather ungracefully making is that being second in the AL Cy Young race does not grant Sonny Gray some kind of pitching omnipotence nor does it suggest that he will pitch well going forward.
I have no serious problem with Gray in a vacuum. I have a problem with anointing him a our future ace. His past record suggests he is more of a #2 starter than a #1.
The Cardinals needs a #1 starter and they don’t have one.
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