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Very true. If he continues to struggle into the season, could he be released? Have Sosa and Rondon be the 4th and 5th infielders?
The way the stats look, it seems the Cardinals would be better off to release him and go with Sosa and Rondon. However, I don’t know if he is working on something and they think he will be better shortly.
My fear is that he simply can’t hit well with the shift on. He’s been a pull hitter for too many years. That second baseman playing in short RF is really bothersome for him.
Beating any shift is up to the batter. The new rules are crazy. I love baseball because of managers strategy, and players abilities to adapt and change their hitting or pitching approach based on different situations. It’s like boxers squaring off with punch/counterpunch.
But 27, if you’ve been a pull hitter all through 5 years at TCU, through the minors, and as a major league player for many years, it’s got to be really hard to change. Carp got that big extension because in 2018 he had 42 doubles and 36 home runs. An OPS of close to .900. It goes against his grain (and probably against what he thinks he needs to succeed) to be a hitter who just slaps a few singles to left.
I think the shift theory is bogus. He would have had 42 doubles and 36 home runs in 2018 shift or no shift. He would have had fewer singles is all. His problem is he can’t hit the doubles and homers any more. Facing a shift more often has nothing to do with it.
bc, the thing is that he has not always been a pull hitter. Looking at Baseball Reference stats, Carpenter had the following pull percentages:
2011 – 18.2%
2012 – 19.2%
2013 – 26.6%
2014 – 18.4%
2015 – 35.4%
2016 – 41.0%
2017 – 38.3%
2018 – 40.2%
2019 – 39.9%
2020 – 46.7%The first 2 years his pull percentage went up, his home runs and slugging % went up. However, since then, only 1 of the last 4 years has he had good slugging %. And the last 2 years, his OBP has dropped.
I don’t have any visual evidence but he changed his swing. I know I read articles that he worked on changing his swing around the time his pull percentage went up.
Shildt Saturday comments:
Kim’s back tightened up on him three days ago in the 28th pitch of his last bullpen session. He is responding to treatment and loosening up. Shildt said it is not overly concerning from a long term situation. However, he later acknowledged that Kim might join Mikolas on the IL to open the season. Kim’s decreased velocity earlier was blown up more than it should have. (Suggesting they are not connected.)
Carlos Martinez is part of the rotation. He starts against LHP David Peterson of the Mets at Port St. Lucie on Sunday.
Liberatore and Thompson are in the (starting) conversation, not to open with StL in April, but to be stretched out for later.
Hicks to throw an inning on Sunday.
Shildt Sat post-game:
Ponce had rhythm. Really encouraged by his start Really locked in. Lot of quality pitchers, including very effective slider/cutter he may use more. Not hard contact. Controlling counts. Big league quality arsenal tonight.
Nogowski had great night. Two out big hits. Putting barrel on baseball. Found holes tonight. Lots of positive at-bats. He could play OF and may sneak him in there. But have 6-7 OFs already and they are getting it done. Dean hit line drives all over park. Big double by Thomas.
Libby was really good, Kept pedal down tonight. Great stuff. Thompson first inning effective (7th) but a lot of close misses in the eighth.
This was a really good game tonight. Saw things expected tonight. Called out Nootbaar, Toerner and Hurst for positive things they work on. Want to recognize them.
Cutting Nootbar hours after he delivered a game changing blast reminds me of how Matheney used to decide to give a guy a day off in the middle of a hot streak. At least wait until after another game or two, jeesh.
bb – The “game changing” blast was against a pitcher by the name of Cody Poteet. Poteet has had only 10 games at AAA. And in those 10 games he had an ERA of 5.68 and WHIP of 1.61. 65 hits in 52.1 innings.
As far as Mo’s quest to discover the next RA, the only candidate seems to be Nogoswski, which is kind of funny, since he is the one guy who cannot possibly get regular playing time on the active roster. Lets say he keep hitting. Then what?
Its about psychology cranny, not about coming up with ways to diminish getting it done when it mattered.
Disappointed in junior fernandez. He was a guy who looked really great at times last year. To be one of the first cuts in spring this year isn’t great.
It is a grave mistake to give guys the idea that their fate is out of their hands. They have to be able to affect the outcome. When a batter stands in with the game on the line, he must be 100% confident that his performance then and there will change the course of history. That it is up to him whether he lives to fight another day. He absolutely cannot stand in there knowing he may well be on a bus in a couple hours whatever he does. Its the same reason you do not sit a guy down in the middle of a hot streak Each time he stands in he has to know he can be in lineup again tomorrow if he comes through. No authority on the psychology of motivation and maximizing performance disagrees with this.
Why is it about psychology, bb? Nootbaar is a medium floor college 8th round draft pick. Nothing to get excited about. Had an OPS in the 6s last season at both high A and AA.
I would bet my life that the roster changes were set long before the game. They players were given time as a thank you. But one game does not alter the pecking order. The two OFs have almost a zero chance of making the team. They got to stay through 11 of 24 games in their very first MLB camp. I consider that successful.
Thanks for the explanation, bb. But Nootbaar hasn’t played above AA. This is a ST with less games. There are only so many at bats available in the remaining games. Those ABs need to go to other guys.
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