2021 Lineup thread

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  • #154894
    blingboy
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    A lengthy article on another site (VEB) purports to present the Cardinals lineup “by the book”. They come up one vs RHP and another vs LHP.

    vs RHP

    DeJong SS
    Goldschmidt 1B
    O’Neill LF
    Arenado 3B
    Carlson RF
    Edmon 2B
    Molina C
    pitcher
    Bader CF

    vs LHP

    Bader CF
    Goldschmidt 1B
    O’Neill LF
    Arenado 3B
    Carlson RF
    Edmon 2B
    DeJong SS
    Molina C
    pitcher

    #154895
    blingboy
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    Splits are a major factor obviously, and there is a TLR fan on their payroll, but I like what they came up with. The most concerning things are the absence of a high OBP leadoff guy, and the roll of the dice on #3 and 5 slots. If we roll snake eyes it will be a long season. There are other outfielders to cycle in, but these are probably the best options as of now.

    #154896
    bccran
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    You might be shooting yourself in the foot if you change guys’ roles a lot. There’s a certain mentality a player adopts for his role in the lineup. If he’s leadoff, it’s to get on base. If it’s #5, it’s to drive in runs. If you want switch hitting, speedy Tommy Edman to lead off, put him there and leave him there. Let him grow and flourish in that slot. You want DeJong to lead off one day and bat #7 the next day? Don’t think so.

    #154897
    stlcard25
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    #154898
    jj-cf-stl
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    “….put him there and leave him there.”
    I agree with this for the veteran players.

    2B/OF
    Goldschmidt
    Arenado
    DeJong
    Molina
    2B/OF
    2B/OF
    2B/OF
    P

    vs both LH and RH pitchers.
    ———
    Molina in front of a bunting pitcher (article lineup) is a DP waiting to happen over and over to the point where it’s better just to let the pitcher swing away. STL shouldn’t.

    Their DeJong at leadoff decision demonstrates just how limited our leadoff options are. I’d use leadoff as the carrot being dangled in front of Edman/Carp and the outfielders. “Who’s hot” gets to bat in front of GoldenAdo, that’s the prize.

    #154901
    jj-cf-stl
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    Shildt Thursday remarks: “He (Shildt) is more of a matchup guy than a platoon guy”

    Leadoff could also be the lineup spot for a 2B/OF’r with favorable matchups vs that days SP’r. If Bader is 8 for 16 vs that SP’r bat him leadoff. Edman 10 for 20 etc., try to utilize that past success in todays game.

    #154902
    blingboy
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    I disagree with your approach cranny. As to Edmon, don’t put a guy in leadoff and let him grow into it and flourish. Bat him 7th and let him show he could hit 1st. As to the DeJong comment, let him show he can hit lefties if he wants a regular slot. Earn it rather than get it handed to you.

    #154903
    Christopher Jeske
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    Two tidbits I find interesting in the lineup construction conversation…

    Edman (143 wRC+, 125 PA) is better for his career against LHP than Bader (125 wRC+, 261 PA). Both are small sample sizes, but I find the discussion about Edman leading off against RHP but not against LHP, his stronger side, interesting.

    Also, I had no idea DeJong has a reverse split for his career (109 wRC+ vs RHP, 92 wRC+ vs LHP). O’Neill has also struggled against LHP in a smaller sample size. Both DeJong and Bader have more power than Edman, so maybe it makes more sense to swap Bader and DeJong in the 3 or 5 spots instead of leadoff?

    I have no idea about the bottom half of the lineup.

    1. Edman
    2. Carlson
    3. Goldschmidt
    4. Arenado
    5. DeJong vs RHP / Bader vs LHP

    Or how I think “The Book” lineup would be best construed:

    1. Carlson
    2. Goldschmidt
    3. DeJong vs RHP / Bader vs LHP
    4. Arenado
    5. Edman

    #154917
    bccran
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    Change roles in the lineup on a daily basis just because of matchups? The matchup theory doesn’t trump the know your role in the lineup known factor. Statheads can really screw up this game.

    #154918
    jj-cf-stl
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    bc ran,
    The linked article and thread are about “stathead” lineups (The Book), so possibly this may not be a thread you’d enjoy. I hope you don’t feel the need to “screw up” this threads discussion for the rest of the community, when you have the option of just skipping it.

    #154920
    bccran
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    Oh, thanks, JJ. Valuable input from you, instructing other posters what to do and not to do. Yes, very cool.

    Actually, JJ, it would be a decent discussion to talk about the merits of players knowing their role in the lineup vs.
    matchups. The confidence that might be good knowing your place in the lineup is going to be the same every day, creating consistency.

    But if you want to keep this a pure stathead discussion, have at it. Sure don’t want to rain on your analysis/matchups/analytics parade. Will have to be more careful to choose the threads I post on the future to avoid your rebuke.

    #154923
    blingboy
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    It is inevitable that all the detailed metrics churned out will be acted upon. The computer will spit out the statistically optimum lineup each day. The human factor that cranny puts forward gets run over because the computers can’t factor that in.

    But I think today’s players are more willing to go with the metrics based game and would be better able to handle, for example, batting first against righties you can hit and 7th against lefties you can’t, or whatever the case may be. They can see the numbers too. So stay in the virtual reality batting cage until you can hit Sandy Koufax, then you can bat leadoff every day.

    #154924
    stlcard25
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    For me, I’ve been convinced that Goldy #2 and Arenado #3 is the way to go. If Carlson can run a better OBP than Edman, he leads off. If not, Edman leads off, Carlson or Dejong hit #4, followed by O’Neill, Yadi, Edman if not leading off, pitcher and Bader.

    #154926
    blingboy
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    In the article, the argument against your best batter 3rd is he comes up with 2 out and none on too often. It seems like that depends on the OBP of the top 2, so maybe not the best choice for a team with no real leadoff man.

    #154927
    jj-cf-stl
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    “So stay in the virtual reality batting cage until you can hit Sandy Koufax, then you can bat leadoff every day.”

    Today we have no-one who has earned Wongs leadoff role from last season. We have candidates we like, but isn’t putting recent success, or expected success from previous matchups in front of GoldeNado what’s best for the team? Are fluid lineups not necessary until someone EARNS an everyday leadoff spot? I’d hate to think we’d lock in a leadoff candidate who is having marginal success out of stubbornness. Leadoff is too important to our RBI bats.

    #154934
    1982 willie
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    Personally from watching games I’ve made up my mind that in this day and age, nobody really factors in where they hit in lineup, they seem to take the same approach no matter what. Nobody seems to care about moving runners over with two strikes and less than two outs, guys leading off don’t generally try to lay off questionable pitches to walk. It’s all analytics based which is why I don’t care about that stuff. Far as bader leading off, I just don’t agree no matter who he is facing. He’s a power hitter who more or less lucks into singles. I also don’t like molina hitting at bottom behind bader or pitcher. With one he impedes their speed, with other it’s just a double play waiting to happen.

    #154935
    1982 willie
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    I meant in front of bader.

    #154936
    blingboy
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    Carp has maintained an OBP about 100 pts higher than his BA even these last couple seasons. So it is not unrealistic to think he might do .255/.350 or so this year. Depending, that might be enough to keep him in the lineup a lot of the time. Top of the order even, depending. Hopefully the bar will be higher, but guys would have to do what they haven’t done yet. Obviously, he might hit .235, but so might several guys who wouldn’t have a .335 OBP.

    #154937
    1982 willie
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    Well I see your point there blingboy. However carp is notoriously bad on the base paths so it isn’t always a good thing.

    #154938
    jj-cf-stl
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    That’s a good subtopic Willie, that The Book has an opinion on. For you, would “bad baserunning” be better positioned before the 2,3,4,5 batters, or before singles hitters and pitcher at the back of the order?

    #154939
    blingboy
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    But of course just because Carp is outhitting someone doesn’t mean that someone will sit more. The Arozarena factor will skew the decisions.

    #154940
    1982 willie
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    Well jj-cf, I think toward bottom cause while he isn’t fast, carp isn’t slow as molina, so before pitcher is probably best spot. He can get over on a bunt. Putting him at top of lineup just gives him more chances to mess up, it comes down to percentages. You can’t totally hide it if they are playing but you can limit it.

    #154941
    jj-cf-stl
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    The flip side opinion would be Carp at leadoff or second, ahead of sluggers with x-base hit ability to drive him around the bases. At batting 6 or 7th he’d be more station to station ahead of less x-base potential.

    Coaching may be less inclined to send him for an extra base with a slugger coming to bat, vs a 8th or pitcher up next. Trying to take an extra base w/Carp as the baserunner can result in extra outs.

    I like the rabbits batting 6-8th, to create runs on the base paths with their speed, but I think we can do both, if a combination of 2B/OF can fill the leadoff role. First Carp has to earn his PA’s, but Mo did say “you hit, you play”.

    #154942
    bccran
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    We have a player who has batted leadoff at every level – low A, A, A+, AA, AAA. The managers at all of those levels knew what they were doing. A guy who doesn’t strike out much, is a switch hitter, and is very fast. Put him at leadoff and leave him there. He is happy to now play just one position in the field. Apply that principle to his position in the lineup.

    #154943
    blingboy
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    The more I think about it, I am convinced that either Carp or Edman will do the sitting. Mo didn’t move Fowler, eating the contract, to clear room to give a bunch of young outfielders more PAs just to see Schildt put Edman out there so Carp can get play time at 2B. I can’t see any way Carp is not squeezed for time this year at least until Mo is convinced some guys are not Arozarenas. We will have 5 or 6 outfielders cycling in and out and Edman trying to do well enough to keep Carp on the bench.

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