2020 NL Wild Card Game 1 – Wed, Sept. 30 at Padres

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  • #142336
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    4:00 p.m.
    Pitchers TBA
    ESPN2/ESPN Radio

    Note that we have a separate thread with discussion about the potential roster and rotation.

    LHP Kwang-Hyun Kim (3-0, 1.62) vs. (probable) RHP Dinelson Lamet (3-1, 2.09)

    The Padres starter will be Chris Paddack (4-5, 4.73).

    • This topic was modified 3 weeks, 3 days ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    • This topic was modified 3 weeks, 2 days ago by Brian WaltonBrian Walton.
    #142347
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The Padres finished 37-23, a .617 win percentage, which is equivalent to a 100 win team in a normal season. They finished with a .257/.333/.466 team line for a .799 OPS, which was good for 4th in the NL and was at 119 OPS+ when adjusted for park. Their 95 home runs and 325 runs were 3rd in the leavue. Their staff finished with a 3.86 ERA, which was 3rd in the NL. They ranked 4th in the league with 565 punchouts and 2nd in the league with 170 walks. Their WHIP was 1.203.

    Theie normal starters Davies, Lamet and Paddack pitched over the weekend. Lamet and fellow righty Mike Clevinger both exited their last start with arm injuries. It is uncertain if either will start this series. For depth, the Pads have Garrett Richards as well as lefties Adrian Morejon and Joey Lucchesi.

    #142358
    Avatargscottar
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    The Cardinals can match up with the Padres when it comes to the rotation and bullpen but their offense is very dynamic. Tatis, Machado, Hosmer, Myers, Cronenworth, and Profar all had very good seasons. We better hope these are low scoring games.

    I guess we may also see our old friends Tommy Pham, Greg Garcia, and Trevor Rosenthal.

    #142367
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Also, the Padres played a decent 4-6 against the Dodgers. Their run differential this season is a +84, second-best in all of MLB after LAD at +136. If the Cards could somehow get past these two into the NLCS again, it would be quite an accomplishment.

    #142375
    AvatarHoustonlarry24
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    Congrats for what it is worth for making the moron Manfred’s playoffs. With this roster it is a plus just too be in. Wish them the best.

    #142400
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    Obviously the key to winning this series is to shut down the Padres offense. We are not likely to score much, so unless we can hold them under their regular season production this series will end quick.

    Looking at it from a negative view point, the series could be lopsided with the run differential along the lines of 15-2 in a two game sweep. But I think we will keep them from rolling up a bunch of runs. Whether or not it is enough to win a game or two is tough to say.

    My fearless prediction – the teams split two low-scoring affairs, then the Pads blow us out of the water with a big game 3, 11-1. We then face an off-season full of posts to “tear it down and rebuild”.

    #142407
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    With two of the top three Padres starters injured, things could balance out, but as noted, the key matchup appears to be StL pitching vs. SD hitting.

    #142409
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    I am anxious to see which way Pugs calls this one. I am going to do my best to tune in to these games on Wednesday and Thursday.

    By the way, I dont suppose FSMW is carrying these games, right?

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #142410
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I’ve got a sneaky feeling that the unbalanced schedules are gonna make some teams look different than the regular season. This wasn’t the strongest year for the West divisions. Meanwhile, the Central divisions put 7 teams in the playoffs. I actually think that in a normal 162 game season, the Cards win about 88 games and the Pads 92. Minus Clevinger and Lamet, they might be closer to us than we think.

    #142411
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    Plus their manager is un-tested. I dont even know his name. We might have an advantage there.

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #142417
    RatsbuddyRatsbuddy
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    Question…….is it for certain that the winner of the Brewers/Dodgers series will play the winner of the Cards/Padres series?

    Or if the Dodgers win that series will they play the worst remaining seed? In other words, if #7 Cincinnati beats #2 Atlanta would the Dodgers then play the Reds?

    r/Esteemed Rat

    #142420
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    If the Cards win, they will play the winner of the Dodgers and Brewers. No reseeding will happen.

    #142421
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Another note…the Cards did not have many off days this year. That should effect the pitchers a ton other than that some guys who otherwise wouldn’t have pitched did. The Cards got 48-1/3 innings from Oviedo, Crismatt, Sanchez, Kaminsky, Meisinger, Schrock, Cruz and Ramirez (a couple other guys were iffy as well but we’ll pick these guys). That was over 10% of the Cards innings taken up by guys who may not have pitched at all in a normal year. Those guys gave up 31 earned runs for a 5.77 ERA. The rest of the staff pitched to a 3.69 ERA.

    #142422
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    As to the offense, in the limited sample of games after days off, they averaged 5.2 runs per game the next game after a day off. The Detroit game helped, but the Cards were 3-2 with “fresh” legs. They also regressed from a .721 OPS in August to .680 in September. The slugging percentage dropped from July to August and stayed static in September. Remember, other teams in general didn’t have near the schedule crunch the Cards had and pitching staffs in general would be much less affected than hitters. You could see the Cards just lost their legs in September.

    From Aug 15 to the end of the season, the Cards had 2 off days and played 11 doubleheaders. The Cubs had 5 days off with 4 doubleheaders (3 against us). The Brewers 4 days off with 3 doubleheaders (2 against us). The Reds…6 days off, 4 doubleheaders (somehow, none against us).

    The point being, the Cards were ground to a pulp by this schedule, and understandably so. Anyone who’s ever had to do something physically taxing for far longer than they’re used to can attest to the drain that has on you.

    But give our guys a couple of days to rest up and they may come out swinging like Rocky Balboa from off the mat. I’m looking forward to seeing how they play in San Diego.

    #142423
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    I am anxious to see which way Pugs calls this one.

    Our Esteemed Rat vividly recalls our 2006 playoff run here at The Birdhouse. Thank you Rat! At the risk of coming across braggadocios, the last time we squared off against these guys, I called a perfect playoff bracket. Not a perfect individual game(the odds would be astronomical), but rather all of the playoff series winners straight thru our Cards defeating Detroit. Maybe Brian call fish that playoff prognostication thread out of the 2006 archives? It may bore the daylights out of all of you guys, but it sure would tickle my fancy.

    * I’ll weigh in before game time Wednesday, Rat. Much much thought and many many numbers to mull over before calling a winner.

    #142437
    AvatarTinky
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    Good pitching beats good hitting most of the time, especially in the playoffs. (Advantage Cardinals).

    Experience and tradition matters, especially in the playoffs. (Advantage Cardinals).

    I like the KK, Waino, Flaherty pitching order.

    The young Padres are a good squad, but the operative word there is young.

    I like our chances. I’ll spend tomorrow figuring out what to put on the PK grill for Wednesday’s 4pm start. Right now, I’m leaning towards marinating a flank steak tomorrow for some medium rare fajitas on Wednesday.

    October baseball. Nothing like it.

    Go Cards.

    #142438
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    Nice din-din selection for Game Day, Tinky! I just may plagiarize that one…with your approval. If history repeats itself, we should have some dandy din-dins on tap as we usher in our Cardinal playoff run. Tonight I had 3 hotdogs….one with mustard and a bunch of raw onions, one with chili and a bunch of raw onions and another with kraut, mustard and a bunch of raw onions. Straight out of Rat’s din-din playbook, for dessert I had 2 Dairy Queen chocolate-mint Dilly bars.

    #142446
    Euro DandyEuro Dandy
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    Pugs, as you mull over those numbers, make sure you factor in the intangibles Tinky highlighted. If the Cards hang around long enough, they become more important.

    #142498
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I’m very interested if the SDP are throwing Lamet in game 1. Any news would be appreciated.

    #142505
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    #142508
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    I knew they had both thrown flat ground. I guess Diego is waiting to see how their arms react today, especially Lamet for game 1.

    #142511
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    I think it may be an advantage for us if San Diego is throwing a guy who could be on the edge of hurt. Maybe that shakes his confidence a little. Maybe it’s gonna result in a short outing and a bullpen game. Seems like we have always hit Davies fairly well.

    #142570
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    First post updated with San Diego starter. Shildt had been told by the Padres, and he told us, but he didn’t know they hadn’t told the public. Oops.

    #142573
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
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    Like the sound of those din-dins, boys. I still see a Padres blow out in one of the games. The Cardinals are just too predictable and there is going to be a pitching meltdown in one of these. And I do not think we are far enough from our last 9 run game to get a big offensive game in this series. If we somehow can squeeze out a couple 3-2, 2-1 type wins, then we may see a big scoring game in the next round.

    I am calling for game 3 to be the clunker, but would prefer it earlier as we then still have a chance. Who wouldn’t take a 11-1 loss in the opener, followed by 3-1 and 2-0 victories.

    #142578
    jj-cf-stljj-cf-stl
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    Good, Paddack instead of Lamet works.

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