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I go with Knizner at #4. He is knocking on the door of the majors and has passed every test the minors have placed in front of him. A successful year of AAA in 2019 should lead to a September call-up. When fully developed, I see a .280-.300 hitter, 12-15 HRs a year and average defense. Hopefully, he will learn the the nuances of the position as an understudy to Yadi.
Gorman will hopefully eclipse Knizner as a major leaguer, but right now Knizner is a surer bet.
I’m in full support of Knizner being the heir to Yadi (which I’ve probably over promoted trading Kelly on other threads), but my vote for #4 has to be for Gorman due to upside and potential all stardom.
14 votes for GOrman and 5 for Knizner. Honestly I thought Montero would have garnered a few votes this round.
Mi numero quatro seleccion para parte superior prospectivo para St. Louise El Cardinales es senor Malcom Y. Nunez….gracias, senor Padsarico!
A little treat in recognition of our valued posters south of the Wall….make that “south of the border”.
Carson Kelly’s AA OPS is .741 (216 ABs) while his AAA OPS is .785 (651 ABs). Knizner’s AA OPS is .813 (463 ABs) while his AAA OPS is .769 (54 ABs). Knizner is six months younger. Given Kelly’s defense value, I don’t see Knizner as being his better or, if he is, I don’t see it being substantial. Imo, I think we are seeing a lack of ML success for Kelly and a lot of prospect fatigue regarding him as well.
Knizner’s wRC+ at every stop: 156, 124, 133, 119, 114.
Kelly: 81, 123, 69, 100, 80, 98, 120, 107
I skipped Kelly’s three MLB stints to make it a more fair comparison. It seems to me like Carson is more varied in his batting ability, although he’s looked better at higher levels. Knizner looks clearly to be a better hitter, although the power hasn’t come along just yet. We know how difficult it can be to hold your hitting together while learning the ropes at catcher so maybe Andrew will improve as he gets more comfortable behind the plate. He’s about a year of development behind Kelly so we’ll see where things stand in a year.
To me, Carson looks like a future slightly below average hitter (90-100 wRC+) with above average defense. Knizner looks like an above average hitter (105-115 wRC+) with average defense. As to which of those is “better,” I guess that’s somewhat personal preference.
BlackHillsCard
Pending the outcome of this round, I do plan on voting Montero with my next pick.
BHC, good transition – Do you worry at all about his A+ dropoff? His high BABIPs? He’s also kind of thick in a Marcell Ozuna sort of way. I haven’t made up my mind yet, but I see Roberts above him as well as the catching duo.
Rookie Status Watch Update, as of 9/13:
Tyler O’Neill – 116 at-bats (130 min)
Carson Kelly – 116 at-bats
Patrick Wisdom – 33 at-bats
Adolis Garcia – 14 at-bats
Daniel Poncedeleon – 32 innings (50 min)
Dakota Hudson – 19.1 innings
I like Montero as well. He’s easily in my top 10. I base a bit of my interest in the reports from last year’s top prospect list of his defense being good. It certainly doesn’t seem that good from his error totals. Most scouting services didn’t rate it very well. But the coaches that saw him play their teams felt differently, which counts for something to me.
As soon as Gorman is officially named number 4 count my vote at #5 for Montero. What he did with his bat this year at that age in that league was remarkable.
Held his own, with a late slump, at Palm Beach. Would not be surprised at all if he starts 2019 as a 20 year old at AA.
stlcard25
Participant
Knizner’s wRC+ at every stop: 156, 124, 133, 119, 114.Kelly: 81, 123, 69, 100, 80, 98, 120, 107
I skipped Kelly’s three MLB stints to make it a more fair comparison. It seems to me like Carson is more varied in his batting ability, although he’s looked better at higher levels. Knizner looks clearly to be a better hitter, although the power hasn’t come along just yet. We know how difficult it can be to hold your hitting together while learning the ropes at catcher so maybe Andrew will improve as he gets more comfortable behind the plate. He’s about a year of development behind Kelly so we’ll see where things stand in a year.
To me, Carson looks like a future slightly below average hitter (90-100 wRC+) with above average defense. Knizner looks like an above average hitter (105-115 wRC+) with average defense. As to which of those is “better,” I guess that’s somewhat personal preference.
Thanks for the response. That’s a completely fair assessment. I haven’t followed Knizner as well as I have followed Kelly through the years.
BHC, good transition – Do you worry at all about his A+ dropoff? His high BABIPs? He’s also kind of thick in a Marcell Ozuna sort of way. I haven’t made up my mind yet, but I see Roberts above him as well as the catching duo.
I’m not concerned at all about his performance. Lots of players have difficulty at Palm Beach starting out and then rebound. The FSL is a notorious pitchers league and I feel Montero held his own. He’s certainly not the thickest guy to play 3B, although the number of errors is alarming. I would say he’s pretty much very average defensively at 3B. He may need to start looking at playing other positions if he can’t improve his defensive numbers.
BlackHillsCard
Participant
14 votes for GOrman and 5 for Knizner. Honestly I thought Montero would have garnered a few votes this round.And Nolan Gorman wins the vote as Cardinal Nation’s #4 prospect!
Voting is now open for #5.
Pugs – I think I will take Nunez soon as well. I have to put Carson Kelly above him though and I don’t know how long he will last here.
My vote for #5 is Carson Kelly.
Rookie Status Watch Update, as of 9/14:
Tyler O’Neill hit yesterday, but walked keeping his at-bat count at 116 (130 min).
Patrick Wisdom is now at 34 at-bats.
This is a major toss up for me between Montero and Knizner.
Knizner is closer
Knizner is a catcher and will almost certainly stay there
Knizner allows them to use Carson Kelly as a trade chip since Yadi has at least 2 years leftMontero at 2.3 years younger than league average won the MVP at Peoria
Montero at 3.4 years younger than league average had above average numbers at PB
Montero’s power potential is coming around and will likely do so more as he ages (XBH 12% of his AB’s)
Montero in his age 19 season was 6’3″ and 195 lbs already, with Gorman not far behind, 1B or OF might be in his future regardless, but the bat seems like it will play anywhereThat being said, my vote for #5 is Montero.
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