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I think Forsch,25 and I agree that a rested Molina for 120 games is better than a raggy drag ass worn out Molina.It lets Molina stay healthier and it lets Kelly get actual semi-playing time.Pena is what he is …a 3rd catcher who is okay on a roster as long as he doesn`t have to play too much.
The Cards should not be taking advantage of this…
P.S. They could in a way. Harper will almost certainly be given one, while Machado does not qualify because he was traded during the season.
Source: qualifying offer this offseason has been set at $17.9 million.
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) October 3, 2018
I said something to this effect two or three months ago. I don’t think Yadi, for one moment, considered Kelly a threat. To Yadi, I think Carson Kelly was just another minor league player trying to get noticed at the major league level. Our future HOF catcher probably doesn’t even remember Carson Kelly’s name. When Yadi was complaining about playing time, it wasn’t because he felt like he was being challenged by Kelly. He was complaining that he was being forced to rest by Matheny when he didn’t feel like he needed rest. The truth is that Yadi should have been telling Matheny when he needed rest, not the other way around. Yadi was complaining because he was being treated like Matheny’s little helper, rather than like the battle-hardened veteran that he is. Most observers just missed the point. A few, and I’m not mentioning any names, have a man-crush on Matheny, and they are simply blinded by that light.
I’m so glad we’re not hearing about ‘rest’ three or four times a week anymore. If a twenty-something, or thirty-something, player needs that much rest during the season, he should work harder during the offseason to build up his stamina. There are times when rest makes sense, especially for a catcher. But it should not be the focal point of manager’s strategy. The focal point has to be bringing out the best in his players, and in so doing, bring out the best in his competitors.
If a player refuses to take time off and insists on playing every day no matter how poorly he is playing then the manager needs to sit said player for a time.If Molina’s pride get hurt because he refuses to accept that his play declines when he get tired and worn out then he is in denial.The manager is supposed to be in charge ,not Molina.Team first notolina first.
I agree with Bernie on his central point here.
He also makes an interesting observation that because of all the teams tanking, wins are devalued. It takes more of them to reach the playoffs.
In @miklasz's mind, there's no way around it: The Cardinals need to add a stud, middle-of-the-lineup hitter this offseason if they're going to keep up with the Brewers and Cubs. See his compelling reasons in his latest report for @TheAthleticSTL — https://t.co/F2T6f7kKYv
— The Athletic St. Louis (@TheAthleticSTL) October 4, 2018
I thought Marcel Ozuna was supposed to be our big middle of the order bat? I guess he didn’t quite get there. I told everybody after he was acquired that he would not come close to his Miami numbers. I predicted between .270 and .280, around 20-25 dingers, and around 80 to 90 rbi’s. I hit the nail on the head. If he’s healthier starting next spring then he might better those numbers a little.
But I agree with whats being posted here. We need another bat. I’m just not sure where we are going to get it. Machado and Harper appear to be just a dream for Cardinal fans from everything I have seen and heard.
I do believe the addition of Alex Reyes to the rotation would be a big asset. I just hope Moz and Girsch aren’t counting on everybody doing better next year and figuring that a healthy Alex Reyes should get them over the top.
r/Rat
DeWitt on chasing improvements for 2019: 'We're aggressive and we've got resources' https://t.co/khBJ4kB12P
— STLToday Sports News (@STL_SportsNews) October 4, 2018
I find the discussion of Molina’s apparent fears of Kelly to be curious at best. Is that with anyone’s confirmation on anything? Is there anything that really suggests this?
When I look at the WAR numbers, I question the formulae. As a scientist, that is my nature—to question things that don’t look logical. I find in reading about WAR that it is influenced by factors that may not be directly due to the player, like whether shifts are used. Interesting discussions that should cause some reflection. When I look at the formulae that I have seen, it seems that conditions could change the WAR dramatically. Example:
Leadoff double
Strikeout, runner remains on second.
Grounder to third, runner remains at second.
Grounder to deep short, safe at first on infield hit, runner advances from second to third.
StrikeoutNo runs were scored. Now, how is the WAR affected if the second hitter hits a grounder to second, advancing the runner to third? Runner could score on either of the next two plays. How does this affect the WAR for the third and fourth hitters? They lose an opportunity for an easy RBI. Run production decreased by strikeout of #2 hitter.
We had a lot of runners stranded at second by strikeouts. We didn’t seem to get a good jump on hits. A double might result in two singles being required to score. Strikeouts and base-running, one base at a time.
At the end of the year, I really liked Wong and Baden at the end of the lineup. Their speed made them a threat if they led off with a hit. But, we had pitchers who couldn’t bunt, and a leadoff hitter who struck out every time they were on base.
Listening to Junior talk about being aggressive is laughable. His idea of being aggressive would be to acquire David Freese to play third, move Carpenter to first then send Mo out to say how excited he is about the 2019 Cardinals.
“They’re going to be aggressive and they have resources.” Okay…let’s see it. No more BS talk…go get REAL talent.
I don’t expect them to do a single thing of value but I’ll be watching.
Like any stat RD, WAR is not perfect. It inherently takes the situation you described, and assumes that they occur reasonably equally among all players.
I think the main value of the WAR calculation is in comparison to other players. It is a quick number that can be looked at to show relative value between two players. It becomes more meaningful when players are in the lineup on a regular basis. Still like anything, you need to look at other statistics to get the full picture.
Along this train of thought, I still think the modern statistics do not give enough value to the stolen base, especially for elite base stealers. OPS completely ignores additional bases accumulated by the stolen base, but it also does not penalize for caught stealing. The difficulty in valuing the stolen base is that there is not an easy way to quantify the disruption it causes the opponent (errant throws, players out of position, upsetting the pitcher’s rhythm, etc).
State of the Cardinals, October 2018
Position: 1st Base
The Incumbent: Matt Carpenter. The Galveston Grinder had perhaps his best season with the bat since his breakout 2013 campaign, leveling 36 dingers and enthralling salsa addicts everywhere with his red hot stretch from mid May through mid August. Unfortunately, he was cold apart from that stretch, and set a career high in strikeouts. Still, his .257/.374/.523 line was good for a solid 138 wRC+ and 5.0 fWAR, which led the team. He is signed for another year with an option in 2020.
The Sidekick: Matt Adams. Big City made a return to the site of his greatest glories as a waiver trade acquisition in August. He didn’t hit particularly well, which continued a swoon which began in Washington. His defense remained solid in the starts that he did get. He is a free agent after this season.
Worth a Mention: Jose Martinez. The hoped for transition to 1st base did not go well, as Cafecito did not hit well enough to overcome one of the worst gloves we’ve ever seen at the position. Shudder to think if he ended up there again.
In the Pipeline: Rangel Ravelo. The guy who held the position at Memphis the last two years is likely a free agent this year. He’s a good natural hitter who has bounced around a lot. Could be an option in a pinch, but seems more an AAAA player.
What should be done??
Nothing. Carp was 3rd in the bigs in 1B WAR this year and if you keep going back a year at a time, his rolling rank over the last 2, 3, 4 years: 4th, 5th, 5th. They just aren’t going to do better than this, he’s not paid that much and unless a trade came along that just blew the team away, they’d be foolish to move on from that. Find a right handed backup (maybe Gyorko is that guy if they find a 3B upgrade) and call it good at the cold corner.
I’ve been harping for three years that our front office needs to be more aggressive. I’m glad it is finally becoming a popular idea, however, I will reiterate that there are ways to do it that do not involve Harper or Machado. We don’t need to box ourselves in on those two.
I think because of the 40man we probably say goodbye to Pena…we need the spots and Kelly can be the backup…with Knizner at AAA
now if we trade Kelly (which i think we should do)…then you bring back Penao r sign a guy like Rene Rivera for a one year deal
We may be able to get Pena on a minor league deal like last year too…then a ST invite, i doubt he really thinks his season was so much of a success that he can control the negotiations…
As for 1b…Carp is fine…backing him up is Gyorko and JMart at the moment id think…but i hope both of them are traded…leaving Wisdom and Ravelo or maybe Munoz there…
BUT… Yadi coudl be the good backup option there…especially if we keep Kelly as the backup…Yadi definitely had his tired times, but overall he was great at catcher,..and he deserves to play as much as he wants…but maybe we can convince him that playing 1b once a week in addition to at least 1 day off every 2weeks would be good for him and his conditioning…he still gets to play and hit and isnt terrible in his limited time at 1b…
i think Yadi would be up for it and i think with a Carson Kelly backup (or a ready Knizner) then it would be a solid plan that is benefit to team and to Yadi’s desire to play all the time
Maybe there are other ways. But you put Harper in that lineup everybody benefits. It won’t happen for two reasons he probably don’t want to come here unless they overpaid for him and they won’t. But until we get a big impact player expect the same results good even wild card good but not much more.
“i think Yadi would be up for it…”
(playing first base periodically and catch less often).
What makes you think that? It is not a new idea. Goold pooh-poohed it back as far as 2015.
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/yadi-at-first-base/article_4e94a4c0-afc3-57d0-b2b8-fb7e34e8da16.html
Over his career, Molina has averaged three appearances per year at first base. Last year, it was one game for two innings. This year, it was five covering 12 innings.
I suspect some underplay Molina’s pride and importance of his career legacy to him. That is enhanced behind the plate, not at first.
The acid test for Shildt will be how he handles Molina’s view of the game. I complained vehemently when they gave him 3 yrs. We already had the best catching prospect (at that time) in the minors and ready to step up. Now Kelly’s value has gone down due to lack of play at MLB, and now Knizner is very close for MLB.
Will our manager do as he sees fit or is Molina going to play as he wishes and pick his back-up. If Shildt shies away, Molina willing be signaling to the bullpen for relievers that he is friendly with. Where does this crapola stop?
Solution: trade Molina… if he ran out grounders he’d have more value. Maybe he can be player/manager somewhere like he expressed he wanted to. Anywhere but in St. Louis.
I know it won’t happen Brian, just a thought to improve the team.
14Nyquist…by your comments on trading Molina, you are saying that you think Kelly or Knizner will be a top 10 in MLB catcher next year…? Because that’s what I assume “improving the team” means.
Cut down on the strikeouts:
2018 strikeout percentages
O’Neill (142 PA) 40.1%
Wisdom (58 PA) 32.8%
Pena (142 PA) 30.3%
Adams (60 PA) 30%
Bader (427 PA) 29.3%
DeJong (490 PA) 25.1%
Carpenter (677 PA) 23.3%
Fowler (334 PA) 22.5%
Munoz (329 PA) 21.6%
Gyorko (402 PA) 19.2%
G. Garcia (208 PA) 17.8%
Ozuna (628 PA) 17.5%
J. Martinez (590 PA) 17.6%
Wong (407 PA) 14.7%
Molina (503 PA) 13.1%That is a list of all position players that are still with the team with at least 50 PAs.
Looking at O’Neill (26.4% in AAA), Wisdom (26.3% in minors) and Bader (23.7% in minors), each have had lower K numbers in the minors. Hopefully, they can lower that in the majors.
Adams and Fowler need to go based on their production. They don’t offer enough to strikeout that often.
I guess the one thing I learned was that the team did not strikeout nearly as much as I thought they did. I would keep Bader at the end of the lineup or have him leadoff. DeJong needs to bat in the 6th or 7th position.
Goold can poo poo it all he wants, but i think after Yadi took that heater to the unmentionables and how he ran out of gas down the stretch this year, i think even he knows he has limits to what he can do.
ALSO, i know and i am sure you know i know it isnt a new idea. Yadi has done 3b and 2b if i remember correctly too. But Yadi as a backup plan 1bman NOW is MUCH different than a discussion on the same idea in the past.
If he was asked to take on some more responsibilities at 1b i am sure he would do it. He has pride at catcher but he also knows he is a member of the team and he is aging. It would be an easy way to KEEP your pride of playing all the time while also respecting the fact that you are aging.
I dont see why it would be an affront to his pride to serve as the backup or 3rd 1bman for the team. The fact that he has done it at all means there is confidence in him and the team to trust him if need be with it.
jager, your justifications are logical. That doesn’t mean Molina would start embracing them, though. People do not always behave in the rational ways we might hope. I remain highly skeptical that Molina would share his most prized bone. We shall see.
Yadi`s pride be damned.Team first.Always.If he is the Pro leader that he is supposed to be then he should let the manager manage and realize with proper rest he can be the best for the team.If Molina only wants to decide when he plays then there is a problem and management needs to nip that crap .Molina is a player…not a mamanger.If Molina refuses to go with the program then ship his butt elsewhere where he thinks he cam be numero uno first.
I agree Brian….and i disagree with BW…
at some point Yadi knows he can either ride out the end of his career with an injury and on the bench or, on the field…and this way is a way that he could raise his chances to do just that…it is true that people dont always act logically…but it doesnt mean that they wont act logically
as for Yadi determining his playing time…it has worked out pretty darned well for his entire career, and the CArdinals are the beneficiaries… i have yet to see any player/catcher show ANYTHING to prove they shodul be playing more than him, and outside of freak injuries and occasional dry spells (which happen to every player, and Yadi less than most even)…i see no disintegration of his contribution in any amount that shodu illicit major changes with how Yadi plays or is given ability to manage his time as they have only been positive in relation to his performance
It’s a team game, but thinking that they are not individual PLAYING that team game is just not accurate…
If Yadi was playing every day, and demanding it, but hitting .200 with no power, and mid level defense (he is still top 5 at worst) AND we hada young catcher that had proven he coudl be healthy and contribute at the MLB level offensively and defensively in such a manner to make him undeniably ready…thenSURE…go at him negatively for not being a team player…every year for the last what 3-4 at least years we get the same arguments about Yadi declining and it being unfair about how he manages his time and plays so much…yet what do we get? a top 5 catcher on defense and top 5- 10 offensive catcher) who also is a core leader for the team and proficiency in game alling is unparalleled….
I like us up the middle; Molina, Wong, DeJong and Bader.
There are too many outfielders and Mo knows how to move them (Piscotty, Grichuk, Pham).
Ozuna, Bader and Fowler is Mo’s outfield, and Shildt did exactly that until Fowlers DL.
Bozo Martinez will be elsewhere next season, which helps O’Neill.
Carpenter will return even though it’s sell high time on him.
Any lineup upgrade has to come at Gyorko’s expense and I’d like Wisdom as the bench 1B/3B.
I do like Iglasias at SS with Paul to 3B, but best guess I have Gyorko and Bozo elsewhere.
Any major addition likely involves the pitching staff.
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