2018-2019 Offseason Needs/Outlook

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  • #71563
    Avatarbccran
    Participant

    1.) Bring in Donaldson on a 2-3 year contract
    2.) Put O’Neill in RF and leave him there. If he stumbles, bring up Thomas during the season to replace him.
    3.) Make Gomber your LOOGY.
    4.) Bring back Rosey.

    #71578
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    Improve the defense:

    1) Trade Jose Martinez. Unless they are going to implement the DH in the NL for next season, I don’t want him on the team. He is a good hitter but is a total liability in the field. His bat is not so good that you have to have him in the lineup.

    2) Do something with Dexter Fowler. He is not a good enough OF defensively to justify having a starting position in CF or RF. As long as Ozuna is on the team, Fowler should have no position.

    3) While DeJong has been a pretty good SS, I would like to get an elite defensive SS. Whether we have to move DeJong to 3B (or 2B if we have to trade Wong to acquire someone) or 1B (if we trade Carpenter).

    4) If we don’t acquire an elite SS, we need to acquire a good fielding, great hitting 3Bman. Not using Carpenter at 3B will be a great benefit to the defense as a whole. While defensive metrics said he was a good at 3B, I think there is enough evidence that he is a little bit of a liability there. His arm is weak. I am not sure his range is very good.

    #71583
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    3) While DeJong has been a pretty good SS, I would like to get an elite defensive SS. Whether we have to move DeJong to 3B (or 2B if we have to trade Wong to acquire someone) or 1B (if we trade Carpenter).

    Dejong was 5th in the Fangraphs defensive rankings for SS this year. Simmons, Lindor, Marcus Semein and Jose Iglesias (barely) were ahead of him. His bat plays well at SS and his glove is very good. I’d be all for acquring a Simmons, but apart from that, you’re not likely to find a real step up. Especially if you’re removing Wong from 2B, thus likely weakening 2B.

    #71588
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    Since I would only use the defensive metrics as a starting point, do you feel that DeJong is right behind those 4? Is there a drop-off after those 3 or 4 down to DeJong?

    #71589
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Data on Carpenter…

    #71593
    AvatarRememberDiz
    Participant

    Free

    I don’t agree with a lot of points about which people seem to be certain. But, then, I never agreed with Plato either, and I still wonder that you can base a philosophy on “I think, therefore I am.” Well, duh.

    I like Martinez. He is the only hitter that the Cards have that is over 280. He strikes out a bit too much. But, he isn’t even in the same range as Carp in Ks. He actually had a higher fielding percentage at 1B than did Carp, and he was 100% in the OF. He may look lost, but the stats don’t make him out to be that bad. Frankly, there are those who look much, much worse. It would take a good offer to get Martinez from me if I were a GM. He is the closest thing I have to a decent hitter.

    I’m not big on Gyorko or Carp as fielders. They both demonstrate an inability to make anything other than the routine play, and they don’t always make those. Some INF errors would be saved by a first baseman who could dig a ball out of the dirt or off the hop. Gyorko doesn’t hit well enough to be a starter.. Carp hasn’t average 250 over the past two seasons, and he now averages over 150 Ks. Hits the ball hard when he hits it. Bunting a runner into scoring position makes little sense when he strikes out so much with runners on base.

    DeJong is only 25. A lot of young shortstops make errors on routine plays when young. He does make some nice plays. I like having DeJong, Wong, and Bader up the middle with Molina at catcher. We don’t really have a corner outfielder who ranks highly in defense, or, unfortunately, in offense.

    I like having Martinez, Wong, DeJong, Bader, and Molina. I’d watch Ozuna this year. I wouldn’t reinvest unless he became a much better hitter. He is a terrible outfielder. No arm, no judgement on fly balls.

    Fowler—it almost seemed that we begin to win when he became permanently disabled. We certainly haven’t had anything to justify getting him. I’d give him to the Cubs. Might destroy their team.

    I haven’t been that impressed with O’Neill. Strikes out about forty percent of the time which is way too many Ks. Doesn’t look all that good in the field. I liked the kids I saw at Memphis more. I think our next OF is at Memphis. We have a couple in the lower minors that bear watching soon. I like Torres. Lane Thomas may be our third best right now.

    I’d keep all starters, Brebbia, Hicks, and C. Martinez. Other than that, let’s rebuild a bullpen. We’ve been needing to do that now for about three or four years. How many times did a 22-year-old starter allow two runs or fewer in six innings, only to lose the game when the relievers allowed seven runs in three innings? I don’t even want to mention the bullpen by names.

    #71595
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    On Martinez…

    #71597
    Avatarmspaid
    Participant

    Free

    Remember Diz:

    DeCartes said, ‘I think therefore I am’ not Plato. Your use of “Well Duh” might suggest why you lack an understanding of Western Philosophy.

    #71598
    AvatarRememberDiz
    Participant

    Free

    mspaid.

    I am quite aware that DesCartes based his philosophy on “I think, therefore I am.” It is quite possible to connect two thoughts or individuals in the same sentence. And, it is still quite appropriate to say, “duh,” although in humor since I do have the greatest admiration for both Plato and DesCartes.

    #71599
    AvatarBw52
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    WAR be damned.Jose Martinez can hit I agree.Defense ………not…..he fails the eye test..poor at 2 positions defensively.Born to DH.

    #71600
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I recognize that Martinez is one of our best hitters. I just think we have the ammunition to be able to acquire another fielder (1B, 3B or RF) that would hit for almost as much average, not strike out 125 times in a season and be a slightly above average fielder at his position. That would put him well above the value of Martinez, IMO.

    #71601
    AvatarBw52
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    FWIW baseball reference WAR for Cards
    Carpenter 4.9
    DeJong 3.8
    Bader 3.8
    Wong 3.5
    Ozuna 2.9
    Gyorko 2.0
    Molina 1.8
    Jose Martinez 1.5
    O`Neill 1.4
    G.Garcia 0.3
    Wisdom 0.6
    Munoz 0.2
    C.Kelly -0.5
    Fowler -1.4
    Pena -1.0
    Adams -0.2

    #71602
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I think we could trade Gyorko or make him the utility infielder. I think Wisdom could provide the same production as Gyorko playing 3B.

    #71605
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Anyone interested in Patrick Corbin? He had a great year this year. Of course, he had a couple of not so great years before that, but the track record isn’t bad. Maybe Gomber is the answer in the rotation, but Corbin probably would be the #2 right now if signed. He’s 28 now so not too old. Might take $100 million to get it done though.

    Another option…the Giants stink, and aren’t getting any younger. Kick the tires on Madison Bumgarner?? He’s a free agent after 2019 so the price may not be as exorbitant. Hudson and whatever IF/OF player they want in the non O’Neill/Gorman/Montero category might work??

    #71608
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

    Paid - Annual

    The bullpen is the most glaring weakness on the club. They had counted on Gregerson and Holland to be solid late, a comeback by Cecil, and Norris, Lyons, Bowman and possibly Leone to keep games close. Other than Norris for about 3/4 of the year, none of those guys were very good.

    The emergence of Hicks, who never really got better, and then bringing up the young starters and using them in the ‘pen worked for awhile, but reality set in that this was the big leagues, and things just never worked well after that.

    Somehow the club needs to get 7 reliable arms out there than can come in and throw strikes, and consistently keep the game within reach. That may be an evolving process in ’19, but at some point they need to get stability in the bullpen first and foremost. I think Wainwright and Weaver could be significant upgrades to the bullpen, but Waino’s situation is up in the air, and like the other bullpen arms, Weaver would need to improve his command.

    Somehow do that, and barring major injuries this team will compete next year. They can tweak the position players, but I do not see a great need for an overhaul. Third base and right field are the only two positions you would even address, but it is not a “must do” as Gyorko is a good player when healthy, and O’Neill might be a star in the making.

    A final thought – we need to figure out a better batting order. Using the primary 2018 players, with O’Neill in right I would like to see us go Bader-Wong-Carp-Ozuna-O’Neill-DeJong-Gyorko-Molina. A little righthanded heavy, but you have elite speed at the top, then a 3 through 8 where there is no easy out and lot of power.

    #71622
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    As the WAR numbers point out, Martinez may be one of the team’s best hitters, but is not one of their best players. I watched Oquendo work with him daily in the field and you see the result. Can’t get there from here. To improve the defense, he has to go.

    #71626
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    State of the Cardinals October 2018

    Position: Catcher

    The Incumbent: Yadier Molina. The guy is just a rock. While he might have slipped a little bit from his MVP level play in the first part of this decade, he’s still putting up very good numbers, especially at his age. His .261/.314/.436 line was basically league average and his defense netted 2.2 fWAR despite missing time with that unfortunate injury. He’s signed through 2020.

    The Sidekick: Francisco Peña. Yadi seems to have taken a shining to this journeyman, which is good for him because no one else likely has. He wasn’t without some shining moments, but his 32 wRC+ wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for another year of Francisco. He “accumulated” -0.7 fWAR in his time behind the dish.

    The Young Guns: Carson Kelly and Andrew Knizner. Both consensus top 10 catching prospects and top 10 in the St Louis system, it’s likely that both could be serviceable (or more) for the Cards right now. Each put up an above average season with the bat in the high minors, and both get good reviews from pitchers for their receiving and pitch calling skills. Kelly is more known for his defense, and Knizner his bat, but both are potential starting big league catchers.

    So what should be done about it??

    Nothing crazy, but if the Cards can leverage an upgrade elsewhere using Kelly or Knizner, they should go for it. Personally, I’d drop Peña, promote one of the guys to backup and trade the other.

    #71631
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Yadi will obviously be the starter. I would send Pena packing, make Kelly the backup, and let Knizer play at Memphis.

    #71632
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    As for other comments, I wouldn’t get your hopes us on Justin Turner. He isn’t going anywhere. I would be very surprised if the Dodgers brought Machado back.

    As for DeJong, I think he could develop into our version of Trevor Story. If you recall Story started out like gangbusters, then struggled his second year, and now is a star. There are some similarities in the two players.

    As for JMart, he really needs to get traded to the AL but not given away. We should be able to get a quality return for him.

    #71634
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Pena is not viewed as a threat. My guess is that Kelly is/was. My question is whether Yadi will be allowed to select his 2019 back up. If so, Kelly may as well be traded away and they can find another Pena to rot on the bench. They can stall Knizner another year.

    #71637
    AvatarBw52
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Yadi should have absolutely no say in who is the backup catcher.Molina needs to shut up and catch.let him catch 120 games a year Kelly the other 42.Molina wants to decide the roster then he can just retire and work his way up to manager instead of being a primmadonna.

    #71639
    Avatargscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I agree with you here Bw52. The manager and/or front office need to grow a pair and let the players know who is calling the shots when it comes to personnel decisions.

    #71648
    stlcard25stlcard25
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I agree with both BW52 and gscottar. Yadi, while an all-time great Cardinal, is not at the point in his career that he should dictate his own PT. While I do think he’s still the Cards’ best catcher, I also think starting Kelly at least 1 game in 4 would be beneficial to both the Cards, Kelly and Yadi himself as he’d be more rested.

    #71649
    Avatarforsch31
    Participant

    Free

    I think you re-sign Pena for 1 year to play his 30 games as a backup. Then you trade Carson Kelly in a package for an upgrade. Let Knizner be the heir apparent for Yadi.

    #71650
    AvatarSoonerinNC
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    The main question to me is how many players are a solid upgrade over what we have. Then the contract issue is a major player.

    Then how much improvement can we reasonably expect from our player vs a target player for a trade. Then the question is what is the reasonable expectation for a decline in performance.

    Then the things a fan has little info about. The intangibles; I know some claim there is no such thing but I tend to disagree. Also who can play through minor injuries. How are they as team players.

    And for the number advocates you have to ask how much does WAR increase for good players over the season. Appears that the final number is well above the end of June number. So if we compare WAR we must be sure we are comparing apples to apples.

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